The Future of Michigan Lacrosse
It's past noon on Friday, so my brain has shut off. Since 80% of the posts seem to be either HTTV or bobblethon related, I thought I'd pose a random question for all the MGoPrognosticators.
Imagine this scenario: It's springtime in Ann Arbor and the University of Michigan Men's Lacrosse team is playing Ohio State in the Big House in front of a crowd of 100,000+ fans.
The question is: what year is it?
Many will not agree that this will ever happen, but I believe it is inevitable. The only question is when. 2020? 2030? 2050? Discuss.
100,000? Never. 7,000? Maybe 2030. The transition to D1 will take us a while to get grounded. About 15 years seems like plenty to build up success needed to draw 5,000+ fans.
You do know that Michigan often gets crowds of 2,000+ currently as a club, right?
You don't think that in 50 years, when lacrosse could very well be just as popular nationally as football, we couldn't attract 100K fans? If we compete at the level our football team has for the past 100 years, I think it's very likely.
I like lacrose as much as the next guy, but to think that it will draw 100K fans is questionable. Much like soccer, lacrosse doesn't need such a large venue, if anything, such a large venue detracts from the experience (see recent soccer only stadiums being built around the US).
And as much as our new AD is changing things around, I find it hard to believe that Michigan Stadium will be used for anything other than football games, graduation, and an occasional "wouldn't it be cool to break an outdoor hockey game attendance record"...
Love me some lacrosse and would likely go now (but they seem to rarely have home games and would be more likely for day games than night), the only way 100,000 are going to fill Michigan Stadium for a lacrosse game is if Tom Brady were to announce he'll be bringing the old lady and all her Victorias Secret model buddies to have a strip down using lacrosse sticks as stripper poles. 100,000 is a LOT of people for a sport that isn't football. 10,000 would be pretty cool.
All of the home lacrosse games are at night in Oosterbaan (at 7pm). The amount of home games changes every other year. This past season there weren't that many. Next season (2011) there will be a ton of home games. 2012 won't have as many, etc.
I know they're confined to Oosterbaan and night games primarily b/c of their club status. I hope if/when they go varsity, they somehow get more day games. Hard for people with young kids (like me) to go out for those night games. Would like to bring my kids but they'd pass out by halftime.
Even if lax does become as big as football (which is a big if - let's get as big as soccer in this country first) one of the biggest reasons football can draw >100k is because each game is an event - there are 7-8 home games a year, 12-14 games total in the season. I imagine our lacrosse team would probably have 15-20 home games, often playing two in a week. So it's not crazy to be skeptical of a 100k person crowd.
I still think we'll see it someday though. GO BLUE LAX!
Last year we had 4 home games. Not 15, not 20, 4.
If mens lacrosse competed at the level of our football team is a big enough "if" since it's a club sport now; it's not unbelievable or even particularly surprising that we could one day have an outstanding lacrosse team, but that's still a pretty big if. It doesn't compare to the idea that, in 50 years, lacrosse could be as popular as football. It's a possibility, of course, but I'm doubtful it would happen; lacrosse is becoming more popular, but it would take a huge, sustained explosion in popularity to even come close.
Sure, in 50 years it's possible that there will be 100K fans at the lacrosse games, but it's also possible that in 50 years they cyborgs will have taken over and destroyed humankind, which would definitely put a damper on lacrosse attendance.
are we talking about human attendance?
"when lacrosse could very well be just as popular nationally as football," I'm quite sure that "Soccer" and a whole host of other sports are snickering at your casual use of "very well." I love lacrosse - played it, watch it regularly, etc. 100K fans is a pipe dream.
I am a huge lacrosse fan. I play and I coach. But there is no way this will happen.
First, the schools that traditionally have lacrosse programs that excel still only draw 4-digit crowds. Yes, they have small schools to begin with, but even Syracuse doesn't fill the Carrier Dome. It's a huge and traditional lax venue and it still doesn't reach high numbers.
Also, the TOTAL attendance for championship weekend (that means Semifinals, Finals, and D2/D3 finals combined) barely reaches this number. The last 2 years have been around 102,000. The 5 years before that were above 110,000. Again, that's not a single game attendance. The single game peaks just above 50,000.
Championship Weekend is lacrosse's Super Bowl. This will seemingly never change, as college lax is way bigger than pro, and this fact probably (hopefully, in my opinion) will not change. If a nationwide tournament that symbolizes the highest point in lacrosse will not draw half of what you are asking, there is no way that a single game between any schools would draw this. Even in the year 3000 when the Moon University lax team comes to play in the Big House, it's gonna be a stretch to fill every seat.
I wish I could say "dude, it'll happen in the next 5 years" but it will not. Think about how big hockey is at Michigan. Now think about our attendance numbers for hockey.
edit: source citation - http://www.laxpower.com/common/NCAA-Attendance.php
You do know that Michigan often gets crowds of 2,000+ currently as a club, right?
But where are the other 98,000 fans going to come from?
From their lax chisled loins.
2018, keeping up the streak of defeating Ohio State along with the other major sport usually played at the Big House.
Get it done DB, Title IX be damned.
I think there would need to be some amount of grandeur attached to the event for this to happen. There will never be 100,000 person crowds consistently watching college hockey, but an event like the Big Chill? There needs to be an aura of importance for a sport with a smaller fanbase to draw those numbers.
I think the Big Chill is being viewed as more of an event than a game, therein lies the success. If it were promoted correctly, I could see it happening whenever lacrosse becomes varsity. Just don't expect the yearly attendence to peak at more than 5,000-6,000 on average.
Heck, if we turned varsity tomorrow, give us say 4-5 years to become a mid level program. At that point give us another 5 to make a serious run in the national tournament. Assuming we have that success, and so does OSU or another regional rival, we could definitely fill up the big house for a one-time lax event in ten years.
So being the eternal optimist, I'll say 2020.
I'm not sure 100k will ever happen, but I could see a FB spring game style turn out in about 10 years. The problem is there aren't really enough LAX fans around yet, and M still isn't a varsity program. When they go D1, get about 5 years for the team to become good and more people in the midwest to really follow lax, and I think you could get 40k maybe at the Big House for a game like that.
... football was in the beggining. Pro lax takes a back seat to college lax, the college level is where it's at, and the attendence record is around 52 thousand
FYI. Ohio State set the regular season attendance record at 31,000 in the Shoe.
http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=17300&ATCLI…
Do people still think that I'm crazy for suggesting that in 50 years a rivalry game might draw 100k?
It's far enough away in the future that I think it's a possibility. I could see that given the right circumstances it could happen. The game that set the record was against Air Force...not exactly a powerhouse rival.
If Lacrosse continues to get more popular, Michigan and Ohio State both have really competitive squads, the game is before the spring football game...why not? It could happen.
I like that you're optimistic but considering the div 1 final four record is something around 60k people, I just don't see that Lacrosse in general will ever get to that level of support for a UM home game.
However I do think that 50K is doable. For that to happen though I think certain things need to change to make the college game more enjoyable. Installing a shot clock would be the first change I'd make.
I'm mainly saying that because 50 years is far enough in the future I feel like anything can happen. A lot of things would need to change from how they are today for 100,000 people to watch a lacrosse game.
I think Ohio State has a good idea playing a lax game before their spring football game (that was when they broke the attendance record). If Ohio State played somebody more meaningful than Air Force (like Michigan), a lot more people would go as is. Other scenarios could come into play that could help or hinder the attendance as well.
to be honest i would hate to see lacrosse lines painted all over the big house field. gross! if it was grass it would be another story.
I know Michigan LAX is not a varsity sport, but maybe they could schedule Michigan v. ND in a LAX exhibition next year on the afternoon of Sept. 10 (the same day as our night game against ND in football). We might not hit 100,000 for the LAX game, but I bet we blow away whatever the current record for a LAX game is. Make it a charity event for Mott and request a $5 donation per head at the gate. That is the cost of a beer here in Chicago.