Fun Facts from MGoBlog Brackets

Submitted by Saint_in_Blue on March 16th, 2018 at 12:35 PM

As games tip off for the day, here are a few interesting facts from the MGoBlog brackets:

 

We had 993 brackets submitted this year.

Nearly half (46%) selected Michigan as their National Champion.

Next closest were Villanova (19%), Virginia (11%), and Duke (9%)

RIP to those brackets that had Arizona winning it all, 37.

8 people selected MSU (boooooo).

Nobody has a perfect bracket.

20 people got 15/16. One of those has Arizona winning it all (oops).

Comments

StephenRKass

March 16th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^

I was curious, so I checked on perfect brackets. At Yahoo, only 461 perfect brackets remain, or .01% of all brackets. About 95% predicted an Arizona win. And about 2/3 predicted Miami would win over Loyola.

The odds of a totally perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion (9 plus 18 zeros.) Warren Buffet will pay out a million a year for life to anyone who ever correctly predicts all 63 games. I suppose that for such challenges, there has to be a limit on the number of times you can submit a bracket. Otherwise, someone will figure out how to submit every possible permutation of wins, and could win out that way.

J.

March 16th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^

There are 9.2 quintillion possible brackets, but the odds of a perfect bracket are nowhere near one in 9.2 quintillion, as not all possible combinations are equally likely.

Keep in mind that there are 500 quadrillion brackets that include all four 16 seeds winning in the first round.

Blue in Paradise

March 16th, 2018 at 4:17 PM ^

probabalities using historical seed records against each other (obviously not a perfect way to do it - but pretty good methodology nonetheless) and the chances of a perfect bracket were one in several hundred million.

Given the millions of brackets submitted each year, eventually someone will get it.  It will most likely be a year where the results are close to chalk.

rc15

March 16th, 2018 at 1:03 PM ^

That's the number of permutations though, not the odds, right? (assumes 50/50)

Even if you just assumed all the 1-seeds win their first round, it would cut it down significantly... Would be interesting if someone used like KenPom odds for each game to calculate what the actual odds were after its all over.

Maize4Life

March 16th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^

apparently Im tied for 135th  with 130 points..damm u Buffalo...BUT on Espn with a slightly different bracket Im in the top 7% of the millions of brackets..sooooo good news bad news

StephenRKass

March 16th, 2018 at 1:25 PM ^

I enjoy the tourney, but I just have never gotten into putting together a full bracket. Without knowing all the teams, it is a crapshoot, and it seems like the chances of winning are about the same for a basketball fan as they are for someone picking based on team colors or mascots or some other such lunacy.

LSAClassOf2000

March 16th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^

Very proud to be #381 out of who knows how many. Well on track for the "remarkably average bracket" award barring any more major upsets. 

I am actually #2 in the office pool right now, so doing much better outside of the blog.

SAMgO

March 16th, 2018 at 1:59 PM ^

Heyyy sitting at 15/16, and had Kentucky beating Zona in round 2. Hoping it continues for the money pools (although I never pick Michigan further than they're seeded in those...would be overjoyed if that was the reason I lost).