friday bracketology

Submitted by ish on February 17th, 2012 at 12:25 PM

the bracket matrix will be updated tomorrow:

in the interim, Lunardi has updated his bracket and now has Michigan as a #3 seed, which i don't recall seeing from any other bracketologist:

ESPN's bubble watch now also has Michigan as a tourney lock:

IMO, we still need one more win to be considered a lock. Another win would ensure an in-conference record above .500 (including B1G tournament games).

all concerns could disappear tomorrow if we BEAT OHIO.




February 17th, 2012 at 12:30 PM ^

Look at the "last four in" teams, then compare their resumes to Michigan's resume if it loses every remaining game.

Still not particularly close.  


February 17th, 2012 at 3:03 PM ^

Michigan is in. RPI of 14, SOS of 11, and 7-5 against the top 50 RPI.

I don't see them as a three seed though, and I generally don't put much stock in what Lunardi says. He overvalues some teams while not giving others enough credit. Michigan is likely on the 4 line right now, but could move to the 3 line with a win Saturday and/or strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament.


February 17th, 2012 at 12:32 PM ^

Purdue should be considered a 99% lock at 17-9 and 7-6 in conference.

The other teams (Nw, Illini, Minnesota) will be praying that the reputation of the Big 10 as the best conference will vault them over some arguably more deserving teams.



February 17th, 2012 at 12:37 PM ^

Their best wins are Temple, Northwestern twice, and Miami (YTM).  And the Committee has repeatedly said that it doesn't care about conference record even the tiniest bit (everyone who has done one of the NCAA's mock selection things has confirmed that as well).


February 17th, 2012 at 1:34 PM ^

I think your argument supports why N'Western, Minnesota and even Illinois are still bubble teams.  They have below .500 conference records but reasonably strong RPIs -- each with a couple impressive wins.   Is also the exact argument as to why even the "good" Pac-10 teams are on the bubble right now... even conference leader and 20-6 Cal is a bubble team.

But even with Purdue's negatives, they will be a team that finishes .500 or better in the best conference in the country.   That will make them a lock.


EDIT:   MSU at Purdue on Sunday.   Hopefully Sparty loses and Purdue gets that "GW" they are looking for.


February 17th, 2012 at 1:56 PM ^

the Committee has repeatedly said it doesn't care about conferences either.  Here's the chairman of the committee recently:


"The bottom line is, we review each individual team sheet and each team is 'an independent' (in the process)," Hathaway said during a teleconference with media members. "We don't look at conference RPI (computer-based power ranking used for individual team analysis). We don't look at what conference teams are affiliated with. We're looking at the team's individual merit."


I get the argument that it's hard to go 9-9 in the Big 10 this year without getting some decent wins, but they still have games against Nebraska and Penn State, along with at Michigan, at Indiana, and home against MSU.  It's conceivable they can go 9-9 without having a win in the Big 10 better than Northwestern or Illinois.  


February 17th, 2012 at 1:18 PM ^

I'm thinking 7. OSU, MSU, us, Wisconsin, and Indiana are pretty much locks at this point. Purdue is looking decent. Then N'W, Illinois, and Minnesota are all incredibly bubblicious. I think only one of them gets in. Two max. Two of N'W, Illinois, and Minnesota will probably play each other in the first round of the BTT. The loser is probably left out.


February 17th, 2012 at 3:07 PM ^

Sorry but Purdue just isn't a lock yet. They are probably in, but by no means a lock.

RPI 46, SOS 31; RPI is a bit high. They are 6-6 against the top 50 RPI, which is good, but no marquee wins. Had they won at Columbus, I think you would have an argument.

Further, they are just above 500 in conference and can still finish below 500. When teams are below 500 in conference that immediately becomes a red flag for the Selection Committee.

Wins over Nebraska, Penn State and one of the other three (MSU, UM, or IU) will put Purdue in, barring an early round flameout in the Big Ten Tournament.


February 17th, 2012 at 12:40 PM ^

I know it's very unlikely that this occurs, but man, a UofM vs. SDSU match up in the 2nd round would be a pretty special game!

Also, is it just me, or do I like our chances to advance further in the tournament in the situation where Lunardi had us at 4 seed than I do now at a 3 seed?

swan flu

February 17th, 2012 at 12:46 PM ^

exceedingly improbable dream bracket:

3 seed Michigan matches up with 14 seed Harvard in the first round, 6 seed SDSU in the second round, 2 seed Duke in the sweet 16, 1 seed Ohio State in the elite 8... for a birth in the final 4, where we beat 2 seed Michigan State and 2 seed North Carolina for a national championship.


<insert meme here>:  BEAT ALL THE RIVALS!!!


February 17th, 2012 at 12:51 PM ^

awesome.  You put a win over OSU on the resume and take care of a couple of those winnable road games, we might start talking previously unthinkable things in terms of seeding.  The put a stretch together here and sweet 16 could become a foregone conclusion.  I'm not sayin...... I'm just sayin.


February 18th, 2012 at 9:23 AM ^

Wow.  OK, I guess I should clarify.  I think we CAN win, of course.  I'll be decked out in maize and blue as will my entire family for the game, cheering for Michigan.  

If, for some reason, I was forced to bet something substantial (or my life) on the game straight up.... Well, let's just say I'd go with KenPom.


February 17th, 2012 at 1:43 PM ^

I was thinking yesterday if we can win the next five regular season games plus make a decent run in the BTT Michigan could conceivably get a two seed. If we were to do all this our wins would be up there with almost anybody in the country and the quality would improve since this scenario would mean beating MSU and/or OSU for the title.

I know that right now the most important thing is tomorrow. Realistically, I think our floor is a 4 seed if we take care of business the rest of the way with few slip ups. Some of those games last night could have helped but oh well.

Beat Ohio Go Blue.


February 17th, 2012 at 2:13 PM ^

I really hope we play sparty in the BTT because I think we will kill them on a neutral site. A win over them there and I think we will take their #2 seed away from them. Honestly they aren't that good. They're probably the most overrated team in the country and will choke in the first round of the tournament.


February 17th, 2012 at 2:47 PM ^

They didn't really dominate them though. Ohio beat themselves by shooting 26% from the field. If anything, I'd say that they got lucky in both of their last two wins. Both ohio and wisky played horrible. Here's to hoping sullinger has 10+ turnovers tomorrow like he did against lil bro.


February 17th, 2012 at 3:49 PM ^

You don't know much about basketball if you think 10 turnovers by Sullinger were some sort of a fluke.  MSU was running a dig on Sully every time he had the ball.  They frustrated and  disturbed him on almost every possession.  The fact is that their defense has been playing EXTREMELY well since they lost that game at Illinois.  Wisconsin got shot down by a very good defense.  

You forgot how they suffocated and beat us down in the paint at Breslin?  This is not the same team you saw in January, and not a single team out there wants any part of them.  This is a typical Izzo team that starts to click at the end of the year.  You would know that if you payed any attention to College Basketball.


February 17th, 2012 at 4:57 PM ^

Really dude, you sound like you are a sparty. We definitley get a 2 or 3 seed and if you think sparty outplayed ohio or wisky then you are delusional. sparty got lucky in those games and will get bounced out of the big dance in the first round. Book it.


February 17th, 2012 at 5:56 PM ^

UM would play Duke in the Sweet 16 (assuming everything goes according to plan). I would love and hate this. There is no other team I would like to knock out more than Duke (closely followed by Ohio). But I would also have nightmares of runners in the lane...


February 17th, 2012 at 6:05 PM ^

As of now I would say we would be a 4 seed but if we beat OSU on Saturday I think we could possibly move up to a 3 seed come tourney time assuming we don't collapse. It will be interesting how Purdue does now with Kelsey Barlow being kicked off the team  and D.J. Byrd being suspended after being arrested for public intoxication. They should be able to finish 9-9 in conference and although W-L may not necessairly matter in conference that should get them in the tourney. Illinois seems to be fading fast but they are the most talented in my opinion of them, NW, and Minny. I think the Big Ten gets 7 in the tourney, maybe 8 if one of these 3 go deep in the Big Ten conference tourney.


February 17th, 2012 at 8:30 PM ^

We win tomorrow, we either win out or lose just one (@ northwestern) making us 4-1 from here on out.  Winning out (5-0) would almost guarantee us a big ten title share as MSU and OSU still have to play each other, and MSU has a brutal road schedule in which they're destined to drop at least one of @ Minnesota or @ Indiana.  Winning out or going 4-1 would probably put us at a low 2 seed or high 3 seed.  At that point, the big ten tournament could greet us with a first round loss to Iowa, or a championship run, after all, it is the big ten tournament, pick a team, any team!!