Forecast the OSU penalties !

Submitted by rockydude on June 8th, 2011 at 3:42 PM

We seem to yaw into this topic in every other thread, so why not give it a dedicated discussion? What do you boarders think the OSU penalties will be, given the limited information that we have at the moment?

Despite the gravity of some of the newer allegations, I am going to say the death penalty is off the table. Not because the NCAA has sympathy for OSU, but simply for pragmatic reasons involving other teams, the conference, and dollars and sense. Taking the OSU game away from Michigan would be penalizing us. Possibly more importantly, OSU is too much of a cash cow. Those tv contracts don't happen because people are going to tune in to see Indiana play Minnesota. Were it not for the real world fallout, I think the NCAA would actually consider the death penalty, should some of the more serious charges be substantiated. 

My prediction then, is that while OSU will survive, they are going to get hit pretty darn hard. I am going to say that they get five years probation, a three year bowl bid, and a loss of 10 scholarships per year.

Give me your alternative theories, if you will . . . 

 

EDIT: Tressel is gone, Pryor is gone. Anyone else on the horizon? Give your thoughts on any heads that might find their way to the chopping block. If you really think you're smart, tell me in what order they to. Popular candidates include, but are not limited to: Gordon Geek, AD Smith, Coach Fickell, and the other members of the Tat 5. (Tat 5 guys would probably leave as opposed to being removed, but that is pretty much the same thing.

One final question - are they just the Tat 4 now ? ? ? 

Comments

michgoblue

June 8th, 2011 at 4:38 PM ^

I like to think of this in the way that Brian does his pre-game fear/paranoia level, with USC's 2 year bowl ban and 10 scholies per year for 3 years being the baseline 5.  So:

Baseline 5:  But Tress had DIRECT knowledge of the situation, +1 year on bowl ban; and it can be proven in emails, +5 scholarships per year for each of those two years years; and Tress signed the email "Go Bucks", no effect but I thought it deserved mention; and USC only had 1 player, whereas at OSU it is over 20 players on the tats alone, +1 year additional bowl ban; and at OSU there is still a ton more coming out, including some shady Ebay guy who Tress knew was hanging around TP, +1 more year of scholarship reduction; and the school's president, knowing about Tress' cover-up publicly said, "I hope that he doesn't dismiss me"; +1 year of additional probation; while wearing a bow tie, no effect, but again worth noting.

So, the tally is 4 years of bowl ban, 2 years of 15 schollies per year and 2 more years of 10 per year. 

Marley Nowell

June 8th, 2011 at 4:39 PM ^

I just spent an hour arguing with my bucknut cousin that they would get hit harder than USC.  At first he thought there was no way what they did was as bad as USC.  At the end of the conversation he was convinced they wouldn't get the death penalty.

Njia

June 8th, 2011 at 4:51 PM ^

From Harlem Nights, just before Jack Jenkins beats the snot out of Mickey Kirkpatrick in the championship fight:

Uh, d-d-d-don't take this ass-whippin' p-personally.

 

joeyb

June 8th, 2011 at 4:52 PM ^

4 year bowl ban (players can transfer without sitting out a year)
40 scholarships over 4 years
Maximum recruiting class of 15 for 4 years, no counting recruits against previous classes
All games in which TP played are forfeited. Same with any players they determine took money.
10 year probation.

This is basically what happened to USC but worse. The 4 year bowl ban essentially assures they will have lots of players transfer. 15 scholarships over 4 years reduces the number of players they can recruit during that period from 100 to 60. They will have a hard time enforcing a TV ban and they simply can't kill a program that big because of the revenue sharing in the conference.

justingoblue

June 8th, 2011 at 5:59 PM ^

This looks about right, though I'm not sure the NCAA will ever do ten years of probation.

It would also be awesome if the B1G allowed OSU players to transfer within the conference for scholarships, I'm sure their divisional opponents would have a strong sell for playing time/beat the shit out of the school who put you in a position to transfer.

Edit: I'd also add that Smith is finished, and they're required to reduce their coaching staff by a few. If anything comes out about Sarniak and TP's recruitment, they'll face serious recruiting penalties as well.

Tater

June 8th, 2011 at 4:53 PM ^

The Ohio State University is found guilty of systematic cheating and the entire Jim Tressel era is erased.  Then, they are penalized 15 scholarships a year for the next five years.  

There is no TV penalty, though.  In fact, they are required to play every game on National TV as an example of what happens to those who compound cheating with lying and stonewalling.  By the fifth year of their probation, they have forty players on scholarship and a whole lot of "preferred walk-ons," and MAC teams are beating them in the Horseshoe.

fire lloyd carr

June 8th, 2011 at 6:00 PM ^

Keep them on tv and have a camera dedicated to watching the 2-3 fans who are dressed in awful buckeye costumes and on the 2-3 cute coeds who are crying each week after tOSU gives up another touchdown (remember the two ND girls in the endzone during Tate's comeback?) imagine watching that on BTN each week.
<br>
<br>Otherwise, give them the Texas punishment for any crime. "DEATH!!!!!!"

EGD

June 8th, 2011 at 4:53 PM ^

I have always thought that the scholarship reductions are the most significant sanction, but in reading more about this issue lately it seems that bowl bans may be the most significant factor.  A number of recruits have mentioned bowl bans as the penalty most likely to deter them from committing to OSU, whereas with good planning teams seem to have been able to minimize the impact of even dramatic scholarship reductions. 

Therefore, I am really hoping OSU gets a 3-year bowl ban, rather than the seemingly "standard" 2-year ban that the NCAA gave USC and Alabama.  With a 2-year bowl ban, you probably have a lot of recruits thinking, "well, I'll likely redshirt my first season anyway, so it's really just a one-year ban for me," and then in the second year of the ban it's even less of a concern.  But adding a third year to a bowl ban would seem to absolutely destroy at least one and probably two recruiting classes (because the kids who sign in the first year know they won't be able to play in a bowl game until they are seniors).

Which is all fine by me!

justingoblue

June 8th, 2011 at 5:56 PM ^

I doubt this actually kills Gee, but he has obviously been so incompetent in his administration of his university's most public department that you have to wonder if he does a good job with the others. I know he can fundraise, but isn't subordinate hires/monitoring a big part of a CEO's job?

BlueDragon

June 8th, 2011 at 8:53 PM ^

his job is safe.  Remember that they brought him in to replace Karen Holbrook, one of the most hated presidents in osu history, because she tried too hard to curb partying, underage drinking etc. at the university.  Thus, squishy things like "morale" and "campus culture" determine the value of his reign, as well as "getting Les Wexner to keep donating money."

treetown

June 8th, 2011 at 11:27 PM ^

Old Joke - what are the three most important things a university president has to be sure to take care of?

Answer:

1. Sex and parties for the undergraduates

2. Parking for the faculty

3. Football for the alumni.

So, despite having once been an Eagle Scout and clerking for a US Supreme Court Justice, President Gee does understand what he needs to do. But if he continues to make "brilliant" statements at the press conferences, it may reach a point that even gold status parking for everyone can't save him. To paraphrase the Godfather, "a man in his position cannot afford to be made to look ridiculous."

 

Mr Miggle

June 8th, 2011 at 5:04 PM ^

Most of these predictions are running pretty close together and sound pretty reasonable for the charges we've already heard.

I think another scenario is very possible. One in which we've only heard about 1/3 of the ultimate charges and many will predate Pryor. OSU has hardly been forthcoming in their investigation so I don't see the NCAA easing up on them.

In that case there will be a lot of vacated wins, 5 years of probation, some bowl ban, probably no TV ban. The hammer will really drop on scholarships. It's not going to be a death penalty but it won't be USC level either. How about no new scholarships for two years? It coud be followed by another year of restrictions. OSU would suffer for a few years, but there's no reason they couldn't bounce back.

BondQuest

June 8th, 2011 at 5:05 PM ^

As I understand it, when teams from the Big 10 go to bowl games, the money they make gets shared with the other teams in the conference. Is this true? Will TSIO be cut out of the revenue sharing if they are banned from being in bowl games?

Will they be cut out of getting a share of the conference championship money?

It would be a shame to the rest of the teams in the conference if TSIO still was allowed to take a share of the income.

FrankMurphy

June 8th, 2011 at 5:13 PM ^

Assuming nothing more comes out, I predict a minimum 3-year postseason ban and a 60-scholarship reduction over 4 years (15 a year). It needs to be harsher than USC because yeaterday's revelations about checks from DennisTalbott to Pryor and OSU's quiet dissociation from Talbott midway through the '10 season implicate the entire athletic department, not just Tressel and the coaching staff.

If more stuff comes out and some of these rumors being thrown around turn out to be true, then I wouldn't rule out a complete ban on scholarships for a year or two (i.e., OSU has to field a team consisting entirely of walk-ons), followd by massive scholarship reductions for another year or two, accompanied by a 5+ year postseason ban.  

Still don't think they'll bring back the death penalty. Too much money at stake.

EDIT: I assume there will also be vacated wins in any plausible scenario, but those penalties are largely symbolic.

Zone Left

June 8th, 2011 at 5:15 PM ^

First, the actual investigation won't be finished until sometime during the football season and the hearing will probably be after the season ends (OSU will voluntarily not play in a bowl this season as part of it's preemptive punishment). Penalties will probably hit after signing day--allowing OSU to sign a nearly full class (I think they've got 18-19 available spots).

Expect something like 11-12 schollies/year for three years, two total year bowl ban, free transfers for upperclassmen, four years probation, and a 3-4 year show cause order for Tressel.

Njia

June 8th, 2011 at 5:35 PM ^

I think, perhaps, another year of a bowl ban and perhaps another year of probation. A "TV ban" or some such punishment related to TV is probably not viable. So, I think what you've outlined is probably pretty close to what will come down, and when.

Six Zero

June 8th, 2011 at 5:20 PM ^

The entire NCAA model is under scrutiny in the media and beyond right now... and all the Bobby Knights, Steve Spurriers and NFL players calling out the system itself only forces the NCAA even more.  They either bring out the pimp hand or come off as a powerless.

I'd say 3+ bowl ban, not sure how many scholarships but I'd bet over the same stretch of time, and a huge slice of wins vacated.  In the meantime, the media has 2 1/2 months left to dig up more skeletons before August... anything else comes out the NCAA will have to invent a new level of death.  5 years of shutdown????

MasonBilderberg

June 9th, 2011 at 3:21 AM ^

The NCAA also knows that they have full line to deal with after OSU. They've already nailed USC and soon OSU, two of the biggest programs in the country. Are they willing to do it 5 or 10 or 15 programs. Then they WILL HAVE to deal with UNC, Auburn, Oregon, LSU, Alabama, Texas, etc. This list will only grow as more pissed off fans and desperate media people try to dig up dirt on every program out there. Remember, this OSU thing only came to light because the FBI was investigating some random tattooing drug dealer.
<br>
<br>You have to be pretty naive to think that big time college athletes at most programs aren't being offered benefits. The jock-sniffing wannabe boosters, agents, local businessmen are all trying to entice these kids for their own benefit. These guys have no affiliation with the school or team, so it's all reward with almost no risk. I'm sure some of you guys in AA know of a guy or two like that.

Blue Ninja

June 8th, 2011 at 5:24 PM ^

3 year bowl ban
30 - 40 scholarship reduction
Vacate all wins in 2009 - 2010
Reduction of coaching positions
Overhaul of compliance office
6 years probation
Players will be allowed to transfer without penalty

AD Smith will be fired, Gee will retire within 2 years.

OverTheTop

June 8th, 2011 at 5:40 PM ^

ideally love to see no bowl ban but no new scholarships for 3-4 years, it would be hilarious in that last year when they have to fields a team comsisting entirely of walk-ons. It would be like last year when we held open try outs for a kicker except for every position on the team. You would have little computer geeks playing corner, engineering students out in center field with their protractors measuring the correct angle to engage the ball carrier and construction management kids on the line trying to build a low wall against the opponents linemen.

mackbru

June 8th, 2011 at 5:57 PM ^

God, OSU is run by monkeys. And half-intelligent administration, having acknowledged that their coach lied in order keep players eligible, would immediately forfeit the bowl trophy. And not only because it's obviously the right thing to do. It's the smart thing. It would show the NCAA degrees of contrition and understanding, in order to limit the punishment.

Bobby Boucher

June 8th, 2011 at 6:01 PM ^


For some reason I have a feeling it won't be as bad as people think.  They'll take Tressels resignation as part of the punishment and add a few vacated wins from last year and maybe 5 to 10 lost scholarships, plus a couple years of probation. 

I hope I'm wrong

Zone Left

June 8th, 2011 at 6:34 PM ^

The NCAA set a standard with USC's punishment. That was for one player getting money from an agent with pretty flimsy evidence tying the violation to the program. The sheer dollar amount might be lower in OSU's case, but these were boosters giving players money for playing for OSU (essentially). The last portion of those violations were done with the head coach's tacit approval and active concealment. Bush's agent friend just wanted him to be an official client later on--the school he played for didn't really matter.

What will happen really depends on which set of violations the NCAA thinks are worse. FWIW, USC has basically said they'll raise holy hell if OSU gets off easier.

BlueinLansing

June 8th, 2011 at 8:56 PM ^

also come right out and said it does not use other penalties as precedence and that each situation is different, with a different result for penalties.

 

Its all going to come down to how OSU answers the original inquiry, which right now is only about the Tat 5 and their former coach.

MasonBilderberg

June 9th, 2011 at 2:50 AM ^

A tattoo dirtball swapping tattoos/money for autographs is not a booster. Neither are sleazy used car salesmen or sports memorabilia D-Bags. That might be the trifecta of scumbag professions.
<br>If you want to know what a "Booster" is google a school in Alabama called Auburn. While you're there you might as well check out The University of Alabama (Calloway, Brent)

MasonBilderberg

June 9th, 2011 at 2:28 AM ^

Because they're not basing it on the FACTS. They're influenced by the daily allegations and rumors from blogs, message boards, sports gossip websites and once reputable news organizations. Some of the UM fans are about as rational as the Buckeye fan that thinks OSU did nothing wrong.
<br>
<br>The facts are
<br>5 players traded their things for tattoos/money. They were suspended 5 games. One (Pryor) is gone.
<br>Tressel lied about ineligable players. He was caught and ultimately fired.
<br>
<br>Now are the allegations and rumors. Cars, money, drugs, hookers, academic cheating, housing, more tattoos, equipment, autographs. Pretty much anything a college age kid could get into they been accused of doing something (NCAA) illegal.
<br>
<br>Some of these things should be investigated, and they will be. Most of the "new stuff" coming out is the media just rehashing the same shit that's already out there because this story gets rating, viewers and clicks. The other stuff is just BS blog rumors.

BlueHills

June 8th, 2011 at 6:33 PM ^

Nothing short of this:

..."drawn on a hurdle through the City of London to Tyburn, there to be hanged till he should be half dead; then he should be cut down alive, his privy parts cut off, his belly ripped, his bowels burnt, his four quarters sit up over four gates of the City and his head upon London Bridge."

blackgandhi

June 8th, 2011 at 6:58 PM ^

I think this would be appropriate: TSIO still gets to play games, but nothing they do is recognized as a win from here on in and therefore the program essentially no longer matters.

BlueTuesday

June 8th, 2011 at 8:00 PM ^

IMO I would like to see them banned from playing in the Big Ten Championship game for a minimum of 3 years should they play well enough to make it that far in any of those seasons. I'm not sure the NCAA has that authority but it would be awesome... Their recruiting would become almost nonexistent.

GRFS11

June 8th, 2011 at 8:25 PM ^

Loss of 25 scholarships over 3 years (10/10/5)

Bowl ban for 2 years

Cannot play in BiG Title Game for 3 years

All wins vacated last two seasons 

5 Years of Probation

Required changes to compliance department

Reduction of coaching staff

 

Kind of a middle-of-the-road to most of what is being discussed I think.

Hurricane

June 8th, 2011 at 8:46 PM ^

Remove the "THE" from tosu so they are only ohio state from now on.  No players in the NFL may say THE in their introductions and it may not be used in any form ever again. That in and of itself would satisfy me.

BoBo24

June 8th, 2011 at 8:56 PM ^

In addition to the traditional sanctions discussed above, OSU should not be allowed to award any rings, gold pants or other momentos of any kind until their probation period is completed.

M-Dog

June 8th, 2011 at 10:51 PM ^

Assuming that players are allowed to transfer without sitting out a year, even within the B1G, and there are any innocent players left . . . is there anyone that we would want to pursue?