Football Expectations for Upcoming Season
Well, with the World Cup winding down, I am certainly getting back into college football mode. With that, I have been thinking much more about this year's Michigan team. Opinions here on the blog seem to be relatively pessimistic about our chances this year, and I am the same way. However, any other team in our situation this season would be highly optimistic about having a successful season by their standards. Here are the circumstances I'm talking about:
1. Returning numerous starters on both sides of the ball including basically an entire defense with players like JMFR, Ross, Countess, Ondre, Clark, Morgan, etc. and much of the offense including DG and Funchess
2. Incoming impact players (Peppers and Isaac)
3. High quality coaches in Nuss and Mattison
4. Favorable schedule outside of rivalry games
Now we are entering Hoke's fourth year, and I feel like he has definitely passed his grace period and has had more than enough time to implement his schemes, players, and depth. So, I guess what I'm getting at is with all of our circumstances, are we as fans allowed to expect 10+ wins by now?
More than anything, I just wanted to get some football discussion going on here, but this is a question I've been pondering for a while. Personally, I feel like with two five star running backs, all-B1G talent on both sides of the ball, nine very winnable games (3 toss ups), and many veteran players, there is no reason this team should not have at least ten wins when it is all said and done.
My expectation is 1996 Carr year, but with upside... it all really hinges on Gardner, who has escaped alot of due criticism because he tried hard in the OSU game....he left so many 3rd down opportunities on the field the entire season, and I thought to myself, that he doesn't have it mentally tp play QB at Michigan... I hope he proves me wrong, where I'd be the first to eat my words.. but I saw Morris in the bowl game handle the rush and pressure, far better, whereby the OL didn't look bad at all.
Then, my expectation next year is Big Ten title, with Peppers playing Woodson.
You honestly believe that Morris looked better at QB? I don't even know how to respond to that.
Someone got a pole up their ass because some of the front page writers pooped on the "bench Gardner" crowd. This someone claimed this was tilting at windmills because this crowd supposedly doesn't exist.
Gee, I wonder where that someone is now? I've come across far more "start Morris" loonies than I could have imagined. I've even encountered someone who claimed Gardner sucked against OSU simply because we lost the game. There's something else at work here.
And I know exactly what that something is that you're referring to, I just don't want to say it (whenever you hear the "he just doesn't have it, mentally" comment, it's a sign). Denard had a lot of the same critics, though it was somewhat more warranted with him (at least as a pure QB). I really want Gardner to have a stellar season, if only to shut those clowns up for good.
There is always a crowd that believes the best QB isn't the one on the field and or that the best QB is the unseen but highly regarded freshman..
Let's see, 1997 Driesbach should have been the QB, Greise was a drunken walkon that got lucky.
1998 and 1999, so loud was the "Henson is the next coming" crowd that Carr felt beholdened to screwing around with a two QB system, for two years.
2000, Henson missed the first two games while his understudy, John Navarre, threw the ball around the yard with abandon winning both....take your time getting back, Drew. Drew did take his time and Michigan fell to UCLA the very next week under the nervous hand of John Navarre.
2007, Henne goes down during the Oregon game for the second embarassing loss in as many weeks. A young freshman by the name of Ryan Mallet guides the offense to a 38-0 utter butt stompin' over Notre Dame. Don't bother coming back, Chad, and take Carr with you.
Other than the "grass is always greener" syndrome, what else is going on?
I'll put $50 on you right now saying we walk into South Bend and win. Will have a damn good shot in Columbus again. I believe we take that one too. We play a close one in East Lansing but hostile crowd and windy weather might get us again. Ohio and ND will not be better teams than last year, they cant be. We on the other hand will be. We have to be. Think positive. I think our O-line has turned it around already.
Hope your right!!
Btw... The clarity of your crystal ball WITH weather predictions in E Lansing are amazing. Also, I don't recall saying they would lose to ND??!?
8-5, Losses @ND, @MSU, @OSU, Bowl Game, and 3 choose 1 of: IU, PSU, or Utah.
Running Game is still dependant on DG for 40% of yards.
He just extended this off season.
My expectations are high (not that kind of high). They're always high (maybe that kind of high). As they should be for a Michigan football team.
I think we'll either go 10-2 or 9-3. I think we definitely win one of the OSU, ND, MSU gauntlet. I actually think OSU is the most likely win here. Michigan will get better as the season progresses, and the team will still be getting it's feet wet for the ND game. Our problems will be on offense, not defense, making MSU difficult. The team will be clicking by OSU, and OSU's defense should be relatively porous. Their team just plays to our strengths the best out of the 3. Plus, Urb hasn't beat a decent team at OSU yet.
If we go 9-3, it's b/c we lay an egg against a team that we should have beat. Can't anticipate those games. Just hope they don't happen.
4th and 48 against the MSU defense. . .Or 4th and 31. Or take pity on Devin Gardner by just falling before the first down marker because the poor young man just couldn't take it anymore.
8-4 would be okay. 7-5 and there better be a good reason for it, otherwise I want position coaches to get replaced.
Anything better than 5-7 and Hoke should still be around for 2015.
They are more objective than you. 8 wins is LV's most likely number.
- The defense should be good, but needs individual leaps to be great.
- The OL sucks, potentially dragging down the whole offense/team, but we're all crossing our fingers Nussmeir has answers.
- The tough games are all on the road.
Expecting any more than 8 wins means you're a fanboy, any less and you're a hater.
What? That's like saying, "Okay guys, now that college football is super boring . . ." On January 1st.
What? That's like saying, "Okay guys, now that college football is super boring . . ." On January 1st.
That's 30 lashes for you, dumbass.
Although then he'd be on suicide watch, so maybe not.
9-3 or 10-2 including a victory at MSU. The defense will be 1st or 2nd in the Big Ten.
I expect this year to set off a chain of national championship runs. 15-0 or bust!! If you ain't first, you're last! Ricky Bobby'd it!!
10-2 and finish second in the East. We beat either MSU or OSU and slip somewhere else along the way. I think we beat ND some how. There is just too much talent not to be really good. The D will be exceptional. The O-line will be average and that will be good enough. This would be a successful season as far as I'm concerned. We will end the season around #10 in the country.
I'm not sure if we win our bowl game or not.
Honestly, I think 10 wins is very possible. ND is losing a lot of guys on defense, and Golston might be still a little rusty after "redshirting" last year. MSU and OSU will most likely be losses, but I feel strongly that IF IF IF IF the OL comes together and Gardner limits his mistakes, this team can/should win 10 games.
I forgot about him. He was actually the QB we fared better against, too.
I just don't see it with this team. I hope to god I am wrong. Outside of Jake Ryan, I think everyone on the defense is overrated. D-line and O-line will both be average again which makes for an average season. Can't have a great season if you can't win in the trenches and I don't expect Michigan to win too many battles in the trenches.
Again, I hope I am very wrong.
I posted "Lowered Expectations" as a reply to the first reply, and now see I was beaten to the punch. Sorry for inadvertently stealing the reference and posting higher in the thread...
no worries man. I'm not the type to make a big hullaballoo about these things.
I looking at a very boring season. Loses to the big rivals won't help any either. Probably 3 loses maybe 4.
The defense will be the rock that this team depends upon, but the offensive line is worrisome. I see losses to MSU, ND, OSU and one more. I hope that I am wrong, and I look forward to watching the team play.
2012 was pretty disappointing overall, and yet people were far more pumped for 2013 than they are for 2014 now.
The change is disproportionate. The misery level is pretty high, and 1927 hasn't even commented yet.
The Michigan team that took South Carolina to the wire in the bowl game looked a heck of a lot better than the Michigan team that got wrecked by Kansas State. That would be the difference.
The 2012 team went 8-4, with 3 losses to two national title opponents + an undefeated team, and the fourth loss in the game that Denard got injured. In other words, those are about as good of losses that you can get. Then the schedule got easier going into 2013, with a favorable home schedule and notably losing only the interior offensive line (who were career mediocre players, and GUYS WE HAVE TALENT BEHIND THEM CHECK OUT THESE RECRUITING STARZZZ). Then I believed 9-3 was a median achievable record with 10-2 very possible.
The 2013 team went 7-5 with 2 bad losses, an unlucky loss, and 2 losses to rivals that were probably better. Even though most of those losses were close, we also had close wins against Akron and UConn (ugh). Meanwhile, the offensive line digressed into awful territory and we just lost our two starting NFL tackles, and the schedule does no favors with all 3 rival games on the road. The defense will almost certainly improve, but it's hard to tell if the OLine can improve even marginally, or if Nussmeier will provide a big improvement over Borges. Hence, most people are afraid to pick better than 9-3 for this team.
You summarize well the source of the prevailing pessimism on this board going into 2014: Anchored by NFL tackles, the expectation was that the young interior would improve as the season progressed. The OL defied logic last year - total befuddlement.
So what happened there? After AB was fired, it ws reported here (accurately, I'm assuming) that his approach to fixing the problems on offense (remember the "they know every play that's called" frustration?) was a "more is more" approach with regard to scheme. With all that inconsistency, the OL never did establish itself. For me, that makes sense of what we all witnessed last season.
Enter Nuss with a simpler blocking scheme to grasp, a proven competency as an OC, and a stated priority of fixing the run-game. I think this year-older/stronger, still young (but talented) OL really embraces this scheme, and owns it. Also, we'll have better playcalling (no 27/27), and an actual QB coach.
Think about the huge chip the OL has on their collective shoulder. They know that they're widely pegged as the culprit for last year's letdown. I see a tight, focused group, hungry to prove themselves.
It seems that the majority of this board seriously doubts their ability and potential. If you believe as I do, that the real culprit was the previous OC (scheme, playcalling, coaching), and we've replaced that weak link with a very strong one, then you've got to find this pessimism to be shallow, and unfounded.
The offense will surprise this year. If we can win on the road at ND (get the road-win monkey off the back), and continue to improve, it could be a great year.
If they can win that last fricking game against effing Notre Dame, I don't really care what else happens. The Good Riddance Game.
And be competitive in the Shoe/Spartak
So you would not care if they lost to MSU and OSU? I sure as hell would, and I'm guessing most people here probably would feel the same way.
There are few, if any, moral victories in football. When you lose, you lose. So, I wouldn't necessarily be happy if I was competitive against MSU and OSU and still lost. It might just suck a little less than if we got blown out by them.
If Michigan went 1-11 with the 1 being against ND, I'm pretty sure heads would be chopped off. And I don't mean the heads above people's shoulders.
Must win ND.
I think this team can beat ANYONE (if they can block OLine).
I think the team needs to pull up their Jock Straps and effing WIN
Get some SWAGGER baby!
Shit is mental now
I'll go with my same prediction as last year (which was way off) of 10-2. Losses at ND and MSU. The talent is certainly there to be very good. The only team on the schedule that I feel has a talent advantage is OSU, and like UM, they also have questions about the OL entering this season. I believe the defense will be very good (top 10/20 nationally) and if the offense can just be average (somewhere between the 2011 and 2012 offenses), there is no game that UM can't win. So 10-2 it is. Unless of course it isn't.
It's hard to expect much more with 3 really difficult road games and a young o-line. The talent at every other position is there and the defense should keep them in games, but they aren't gonna be MSU's defense last year. My hunch is they win one of the road rivalry games against ND or MSU. I can't see how with OSU's strength at d-line and UM's weakness at o-line, and the fact that UM hasn't won in Columbus in over a decade, that UM could win that game. I know UM will win there eventually if they keep some coaching consistency, but I doubt it's 2014. They are also not consistent enough on offense, so they will probably drop a game or two we don't expect. I don't see them losing to PSU at night. But, a loss to NW or Indiana wouldn't surprise me. At best I'd say 10 wins, at worst 7, but most likely 8-9. I just hope the offensive line, the running game, and Gardner's decision making improves as the season goes on on offense and that the ability to pressure the QB with the d-line improves as the year goes on. If that happens I will happy about expectations for 2015. That's all I got.
That said, we could easily go 10-3 or 7-6. There are so many unkowns this year. If we believe the star ratings the last few years in recruiting we should be okay. It's time for Hoke to show us something. Win in East Lansing! Win at ND! Blow out the App St's and Miami O's of the world at home and set the tone for the future!
Peter: I found that if you have a goal, that you might not reach it. But if you don't have one, then you are never disappointed. And I gotta tell ya...It feels phenomenal.
Kate: Well I guess that makes sense, in a really sad way.
AR-15: Sad? You want to know what's sad? Hundreds of men talking about their expectations of a football team for the bazillionth time.
Now off to stalk 16 y/o boys and analyze all their decisions
I vote we discuss 1970's sitcoms instead. You good with that?
I prefer Dodgeball