FiveThirtyEight rates this UM-OSU matchup the fourth biggest in series history

Submitted by Human Torpedo on November 21st, 2018 at 3:01 PM

Retroactively applying their Elo ratings to each matchup all the way back to 1897, it's only behind 1975, 2006 and 1997 in terms of "hype"



November 21st, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^

It’s been 32 years since Jim Harbaugh last led the Michigan Wolverines to a win over the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ever since the consummate Michigan Man made good on his guarantee in 1986, the maize and blue have largely been muzzled by the scarlet and gray. To some degree, Harbaugh must have returned to his alma mater for games like Saturday’s. But he has fumbled each of his three chances at the Buckeyes.


Do the 1990's not exist anymore?

los barcos

November 21st, 2018 at 3:05 PM ^

Surprised to see 2016 so far down that list.  What accounts for the large difference between then and now?  Both games for the B1G Championship game, both for a playoff spot (though less so if OSU wins Saturday).


November 21st, 2018 at 3:11 PM ^

I would have thought that '73 (when both were undefeated, Ohio was #1 and Michigan #4) would be ahead of '75 and '97. I would put '03 in the running for #3 behind '06 and '73. EDIT: what makes '73 special is that Ohio won the Rose Bowl that year. Whereas in '06 both teams lost their bowl games, and in '75 Michigan finished 8-2-2. '16 was another year the teams fizzled in the bowls. 



November 21st, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^

Like everyone else I’m shocked 2016 always gets overlooked. It was literally 2 vs 3. I’d assume it was because we had recently lost to Iowa and Speight was injured, but still. 


November 21st, 2018 at 4:21 PM ^

Thanks for posting.

I have to say I was surprised to see 1975 up there.

That team was very offensively challenged and had 2 consecutive ties filled with field goals.

I would not have thought advanced stats would be impressed with that team.


November 21st, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^

1973: 10-0 and #4 Michigan vs 9-0 and #1 Ohio State

1975: 8-0-2 and #4 Michigan vs 11-0 and #1 Ohio State

I was in school during those years, and anybody who says the hype was bigger in 1975 than it was in 1973 is an idiot.

However, I don't think the Elo measurement measures "hype" anyhow, and the article isn't really about hype per se.


November 21st, 2018 at 4:35 PM ^

I love me some 538 normally, but I am not a big fan of the "ELO" ratings. This certainly the kind of ad hoc, zero-expertise take that Nate Silver hates, but I find it to be more confusing and generally less accurate than DVOA and other fancy stats. I have no idea if that's true, but it seems that way. I do know that every year, the I have to figure out what the heck ELO is trying to do, sorta understand it, then immediately forget it.

rob f

November 21st, 2018 at 4:38 PM ^

I'll check back in an hour, at 5:38, to see if they got it right yet.


(Edit @ 5:50: I even gave them an extra 12 minutes and they still have many basic facts  wrong and/or ignored)


November 21st, 2018 at 5:28 PM ^

I don't think Nate Silver and his gang are particularly fond of their memories regarding the year 2016, so maybe that explains their lack of appreciation for that game.