Film Review: What Justin Field's Means for OSU
Spring football is here, so while most of us are focused on March Madness, we also have our eyes on football for some hints of what lies ahead for Fall. With that, the new transfer to OSU is almost certainly in line to start for the Buckeyes day one. While it'll be extremely difficult to replicate what Haskins was able to do, Fields does have some talent. He also has some weaknesses to his game that should at least provide a glimmer of hope that the game at the end of this year won't go like the one at the end of last year.
I took a look at both his strengths:
And his weaknesses, and provided an overall conclusion:
I did this previously for Patterson, and besides some over optimism for how much Peters may challenge him, it was pretty accurate with what we saw.
Fields is a guy any program would like to have, because he has a very natural arm. But he also has some areas where he really needs to improve. While he was only a freshman last year and some of the mental aspects should be expected, you also didn't see much improvement over the course of the year from him, and the ability to read coverages and get the ball out is often one of those things that "clicks", meaning it may happen this year, may happen is senior year, or may never happen, it's hard to tell. All we can tell is that it hasn't happened yet, and I don't think he's dynamic enough as an athlete to overcome those limitations (if they still exist to this degree) in every game.
Anyway, a little offseason look at what the biggest rival is bringing in at the most essential position.
"at the most essential position."
This is what I'm most excited about with Gattis. Patterson is one of the best weapons we have and we have him at the most important position in football. But for some reason we limited his use. Excited to see Patterson unleashed.
Patterson has never looked too stellar at sitting in the pocket and getting through his reads so I'm not sure the idea that "unleashed" Patterson is suddenly a stud quarterback. He's still a good quarterback but I think people are fooling themselves a bit if they think that he's going to turn into a 4,000-yard passer next year.
Put him in the shotgun with our line and receivers and pass 60% and he is setting Michigan's record for passing in a season.
Too bad he will probably be taking snaps under center most of the time. I just don't think thats where he is comfortable.
Michigan wasn't majority of the time under center last year (was probably 2/3 shotgun outside of goal line/short yardage), so not really sure what you're talking about. Gattis will almost certainly increase the number of shotgun snaps, although Michigan won't be pure shotgun.
I agree with Kurpit that people tend to overstate how good Patterson is. He's a very good college QB with limitations. Those limitations include making quick reads and feel for the pocket, which limits to a degree how much you can rely on him as a passer. I don't think Michigan needs to be the ~60/40 run/pass they were last year, but I really don't think 60% pass is a good fit for Michigan either (who still had pass pro limitations, who still had weaknesses in making quick reads, etc.). Even Bama was ~55/45. That seems more realistic for Michigan.
thank you for posting the OP and bringing our attention to it.
Just as important as the 60/40 spread is whether we typically run or pass on first down. We want to be a team that passes a bit more than we run, but typically throws on first down.
Agree about Patterson as potentially good but not great. He just doesn't have any one outstanding tool. McCaffrey has always looked better to me.
I didn't say he was turning into a Heisman candidate. But don't act like he's O'Korn either. He's definitely at least an above average QB and it's insanity that he was only featured enough to rack up 250+ yards just TWICE all last season.
I didn't act like "he's O'Korn." I said "he's still a good quarterback." There is a lot of middle ground between being absolutely putrid and a Heisman candidate.
The entire world acknowledges that Patterson was a dual-threat, or spread, QB. Yet, Michigan did not use him like that, at all - save for a handful of read option plays (in which he devastated the defense). It's pretty well established that Pep/Harbaugh handcuffed the guy in how he was used and what he was able to do within the bounds of playtime 'creativity'. The hope is that Gattis is able to draw the raw ability out of him, polish it, and unleash it on the world in the form of a far superior instance of the Ole' Miss spread that Shea ran quite well as a true freshman. If it does play out this way, I think Michigan's offense can be as dynamic and awe-inspiring as the first instance of Don Brown's defense proved to be.
Patterson was listed as a pro style QB by 247 (and dual threat by Rivals). The vast majority of his rushing yards at Ole Miss were scrambles, not designed runs. He's a fine runner, he is not a great runner. People overstate how good of an athlete he is. A handful of carries for him a game isn't inappropriate, and once the season got rolling, that's about what he got. No, Michigan didn't expand a ton on the read option game, but that's because it doesn't make a ton of sense to invest heavily in something you are using a dozen times a game.
I'm not arguing Pep was great, I'm not arguing Gattis shouldn't try to improve the quick pass game and RPOs, but people act like Patterson was grossly misused. He wasn't. Outside of DPJ, Michigan's WRs were better suited for the types of routes they ran, and Patterson wasn't better at completing those types of routes (because it gave him time to identify the coverage and didn't require him to quickly make progressions).
Gattis isn't some magic bullet that is going to bring in RPOs and Michigan is going to be Oklahoma on offense. Patterson isn't Baker Mayfield. He's a good college QB that also isn't a dynamic athlete on his own but is good enough to maintain that threat, has a nice arm, but still hasn't downloaded the mental side of the game.
This place is so weird in that it somehow argues how much we suck while arguing how great we could be if [this] and [that], when the reality is in the middle more than likely.
I agree here, writ large, but disagree with certain aspects. For one, I think my writing lends credence to a thought that says I was saying Michigan sucked, and should go all passing spread. No thank you - did not mean to say that! I do think Shea could be used a little more in the run game, with more 'creativity' options - realistic passing threats taken advantage of (we saw it in limited use, but not often), that sort of thing. But the pass game needs a complete overhaul - when DPJ, Black, and Collins combine for ~90 catches on the year, your passing game needs work. When Chris Evans was (more or less) completely ignored, your passing game needs work. Even Grant Perry (over the middle route runner extraordinaire with great hands) was ignored!
I don't think we need to see a 60/40 pass split, probably too much (as you said). But even a 55% split needs to be accompanied by a more diverse throwing game. Yes, multiple routes at different levels are great. But what about the RB? What about slants? The route tree is certainly an impressive thing when you look at all the options it presents. But that didn't necessarily put the offense in good position to succeed as often as we would like. I'm hoping a more open attack will do so. Mixing in a different selection of routes that includes the RB, slants (ie: quick hitters), throws over the middle (used sparingly last year), even pitches to the RB, would - I believe - open up a stagnant offense and put each player in better position to succeed.
I was a big believer in Harbaugh's pro offense - teach it redundantly and let players grow into it. But 4 years on, that hasn't really worked out. It's been petty good, but the bad times were BAD, and the good times often leave us wanting more. I feel its time to do something a little different. Not a full-on Rich Rod spread, but more open to those concepts...
Of course Gattis isn't a magic bullet.
Dylan McCaffrey is.
(Yes, I'm joking, but by the second or third incompletion in the first game you *know* some idiot's gonna be calling for McCaffrey to come in.)
Let’s see what happens with a qb coach and O coordinator who isn’t a total buffoon before we pass judgement on Shea. I look for him to take a huge step forward under McDaniels and Gattis. Pep was a master at being paid a kings ransom to suck at his job.
I wouldn't expect drastic improvement due to one year under a new QB coach as a senior. Harbaugh was also involved with Patterson, and Harbaugh is a very good QB coach. Patterson can make improvements, I expect him to make marginal improvement, but he's likely still going to have some weaknesses in his game similar to what we saw last year.
I am so not being a prick...truly...but I / we have heard the rhetoric that "Harbaugh is a great QB Coach". Is that really true? At Michigan his QB play seems to suggest otherwise, or at least opens him up to scrutiny. He hasn't been able to develop any QB that he has recruited into an effective QB.
Now, you could argue that 4 years isn't enough time, or that QB recruits are hit or miss but for a Coach that was touted as the QB whisperer his results have been just kinda "Meh".
No coach is a [whisperer] and that term should be dropped. Dantonio and Saban are some of the best DB coaches in college football, but not all their DB recruits work out. Ferentz is a phenomenal OL coach, not every OL that goes there is great. Even the best coaches don't drastically improve every player.
Harbaugh had extremely high relative success at San Diego, he improved Pritchard at Stanford quite significantly from year 1 to year 2, and drastically saw Luck improve (who was no where near a finished product when he started at Stanford). He revived Smith's career in the NFL and got a ton out of Kaep. He got by far the best season out of Rudock. Speight was a likely mid-round draft prospect before he got hurt. Patterson's best year by far was at Michigan.
He had a year where his starter got hurt with no depth but a RS FR and a transfer behind him because of a variety of issues, and the transfer that got beat out at Houston didn't show drastic improvement. Peters we didn't see enough of to see if he could improve, but in the short time we did see him he was at worst an average B1G QB as a RS FR (the question is how much his injury impacted him). Harbaugh is a great QB coach, I have very little doubt. He isn't a "whisperer" because no one is. His time at Michigan has been up and down for a variety of reasons, but that doesn't take away his extensive track record.
I agree with your point. I am not proposing that Harbaugh's track record isn't what it is. His track record is indisputable. It is superb. What I am proposing is that, currently, his track record or success hasn't been fully replicated thus far at Michigan.
I know we have won 10 games several times and I am certainly in no way insinuating he isn't a very very good coach. I am saying that his QB play has been suspect, which is what most of us find so surprising. He has had to rely on two transfers to save that position group in his current tenure. McCaffrey looks to be the real deal and that narrative could all change when Dylan takes over.
Also, as far as Peters, I think it fair to say that he wasn't going to be any better than an average B10 QB...even with some improvement. Peters looked competent only compared to the dumpster fire that he was replacing.
Peyton Manning’s Coach was QB whisperer. He coached a hall of famed and Heisman runner up and followed that up with a QB that won a national championship.
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Combine Gattis playbook with the one McDaniels hopefully stole from his brother, then you have something! Maybe have McDaniels brother's "student" come in for some private QB lessons with this group. Have them out to Montana for a couple days of workouts. Hopefully they don't get distracted by Gisele working on her tan!
It means they have a QB.
"While it'll be extremely difficult to replicate what Haskins was able to do..."
As a group, we thought that Haskins was not going to be able to replicate what JT Barrett was able to do - run Meyer's offense nearly flawless. He wasn't... But Meyer adjusted to what Haskins did well, and it worked out okay for them. Fields is a very different player from Haskins, and I'll bet Day will adjust accordingly. I don't think Fields will be as steady as Haskins was, though, simply because he's still pretty raw around the edges. But if Day was the mastermind of the OSU offense last year (if he's the one that adjusted it to Haskins), then (most likely) the OSU offense we see later this year will be the one we'll see until Fields is gone.
Hopefully it's not as good as previous versions...
Haskins was a perfect match for their receiving corps and is a likely top ten draft pick now. If OSU's offense is just as a good with a new QB then Day might be a better coach than Meyer.
And, while possible, this is thankfully unlikely.
The bigger question is whether Day can recruit like Urban. He can be a better coach with lesser results if he isn’t getting top three recruiting classes every year.
Mike Farrell of Rivals called Meyer the best recruiter in CFB.
Day might have a hard time reeling in top 3 classes, but his floor is high. Any decent recruiter at OSU should bring in consistent top 10 or better classes when they're winning.
Here is another way of thinking about this. What if Haskins near perfect arm has Day over confident of his play calling. He calls for those passes (at that rate) with a lesser QB and maybe we see more games like Purdue. I’d love to see a Qb with the yips in Days pass heavy offense. We can dream right?
I have a feeling this guy is going to run all around the field against us and score a lot. Why do I think that? Because almost every OSU QB going back to 2004 has done that to us and pretty much scored at will.
Because of course.
sadly, I am quite sure that by November, he will be great.
Um, really? This seems a little desperate.
Michigan was very conservative last year and ended up passing less than 40% of the time. With the expectation of being more up-tempo this season and at the worst a 50/50 offense, seeing his numbers up into the 3,500 range (if not more) isn’t at all outlandish.
Just for the sake of math, let’s give him the same number of attempts as Haskins (OSU was a 50/50 run pass split offense that ran some tempo, so seems like a quick and easy comparison)
Haskins attempted 533 passes. Shea completed 64.6% of his passes, so that’s 334 completions (which is more completions than Shea had attempts mind you). Shea averaged 8 yards per attempt. So on 533 attempts that’s 4,264 yards. He threw a TD on 6.7% of his throws and pick on 2.1%. On 533 attempts that’s 36 TDs (35.7) and 11 picks (11.2).
So based on his statline adjusted to Haskins’ attempts, Shea would have posted a statline of 334/533 4,264 yards 36 TDs and 11 INT.
Now obviously it remains to be seen if Michigan will be a 50/50 offense (or pass even more) and how fast they’re willing to go. But 4,000 yards isn’t out of the question. The fact is, Shea has been a very efficient passer. With more volume and tempo, a huge stats boost isn’t outlandish.
Hes a veteran QB with a very talented WR corps. We definitely have the weapons for him to put up a statline like that, the question is whether or not Michigan will play with enough tempo and pass the ball enough to do it.
Is the new apostrophe in his name a subtle way to skirt the transfer process?
Thanks for this SC. One question: What is the makeup of an ‘extremely catchable ball’?
One like Patterson threw to Gentry over and over?
March 22nd, 2019 at 11:10 AM ^
Catchable =. “accuracy plus touch, the ability to caress a pass onto a receiver’s hands, in the right place at the right time at the right speed.” Source https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cleveland.com/osu/2019/03/what-dwayne-haskins-catchable-ball-means-for-the-nfl-and-ohio-states-2019-offense-doug-lesmerises.html%3foutputType=amp
March 22nd, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
Great write up, thanks for posting
Good stuff as usual. Thanks!
He dead
They haven't ruled out Baldwin winning the position with a year's experience. It's a competition , cough, cough.
Good stuff.
I agree about Fields as a passer; he's got all the tools to be great, but he's going to have to evolve reading coverages and clean up his mechanics. He'll likely (sigh) get pretty good coaching at OSU and will improve.
The only tiny silver lining I can see as a UM fan is that when the competition got tougher for him he struggled; Haskins stepped in against UM and was throwing darts all over the field. He might struggle to start the conference slate, but of course by the time he plays UM he should be much more comfortable.
I've always said that OSU isn't going to come back to the pack as much as UM just needs to catch them. Meyer was a massive hypocrite and a cretin, but he was an amazing coach and expecting Day to replicate that success is probably unlikely, at least early on. But anyone expecting Fields to be a huge anchor for them is probably going to be disappointed.
March 21st, 2019 at 11:44 PM ^
personally I think Meyer was fading away as a coach. His best years were behind him and he had to be dragged kicking and screaming away from zone read with a QB run as the key element. He was hiring his friends as defensive coaches and they were really bad last year. 2018 was Meyer “slipping” whipped by Purdue, should have lost to Maryland.
Don Brown had the zone read figured out. Meyer’s offense was dead in the water against us. Then they trot out Haskins and let Day call the passing game and they’re unstoppable.
Day scares me as a coach. Young, hungry and he has a loaded program and they keep racking up blue chip talent on the recruiting trail. Hired solid assistants, retained Wilson as an OC.
Its a matter of catching up. They’re not slowing down and if anything they might be more innovative than they’ve been in a few years.
March 21st, 2019 at 11:35 PM ^
Really hard to judge Fields off his Georgia time. Different offense altogether and a true FR playing in mop up with the #2’s. He made mistakes and did true FR things. Obviously he wasn’t taking the starting job from Fromm last year.
If you watched Haskins as a FR (prior to Mich) it would have led you to believe he was going to throw to his first read no matter what and take way too many risks. He showed his arm off but he didn’t make good reads, pick up blitzes or make the right adjustments. Drove Day nuts and Urban pulled the #2’s after he took a sack, nearly threw a pick 6 then fumbled on a scramble. The next week he has a great 4th against us.
Fields is the best athlete they’ve had at QB since Terelle Pryor and he is a more accurate passer than Pryor ever was. What’s alarming is what Quincy Avery says about him. Avery is Haskins, Fields and DeShaun Watson’s personal QB coach. He says Fields absorbs information faster and better than the other two and is the fastest/most athletic of the 3.
I’d feel a lot better if Tathan Martell was playing. He will be a dud at Miami and it’s a shame Fields came on the transfer market. They massively upgraded.
March 22nd, 2019 at 12:05 AM ^
Just going strictly by stats, it looks like Justin Fields is clearly a better QB than Dwayne Haskins. But stats don't tell the whole story.
Haskins Max Preps: http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/dwayne-haskins-jr/Rd_URAuBEeOZ5AAmVebBJg/gendersport/football-stats.htm
Fields Max Preps: http://www.maxpreps.com/athlete/justin-fields/-H57ISwIEeW-8KA2nzwbTA/gendersport/football-stats.htm
As a Michigan fan I'm hoping these numbers in high school don't tell the real story of what Justin Fields will become. But there is likely good reason why Ryan Day immediately wanted Justin Fields, and was willing to part with Tate Martell to get him.
I’m really looking forward to seeing what the Gattis/Shea combo is going to do this season. Especially with that receiving group. Also interested to see if Gattis really does have control.