Expert pessimism aside,

Submitted by brad on July 4th, 2008 at 3:05 PM

I think Michigan's over/under record this year is 8.5-3.5.  The D has a good chance to be special.  Special in a good way.  And although the offense has a chance to be special in a bad way, predicting 5 losses in 12 games is giving a lot of other teams a befenit of doubt that is not given to M.

Aside from Wisconsin and OSU, where are three more L's coming from?  Illinois, Penn State, MSU, ND or Utah?  Come on, all  those teams have serious issues as well.  It is not reasonable to assume that a majority of those will overcome their inherent weaknesses or be able to manipulate play to their strengths while Michigan will not.  Michigan's offense was already awful last year, and they went 9-4.

A top flight defense goes a long way, especially in the Big Ten.  I don't know why people say they wouldn't be dissapointed with something worse than 8-4.

Comments

poguemahone

July 5th, 2008 at 9:09 PM ^

It'll be a long time until they do. Aside from that, the only other team I see giving UM trouble is Utah. Home opener, experienced opponent, nervous, young offense. A couple turnovers could give the game away. It'll make a bit of a stink if it's a loss as Rod's first game, but it'll blow over by the time you're thumping little brother in the Big House.

mjv

July 6th, 2008 at 12:26 AM ^

Near Gimmes: Minnesota, Northwestern, Toledo, Miami, Toss Ups: Utah, Notre Dame, Illinois, Penn State, MSU, Purdue, Highly Unlikely: Wisonsin, OSU The likely distribution ranges from 5-7 to 9-3. I'll be very upset with 7-5 or worse (because I'm spoiled from a long history of much greater success) but I won't be surprised by it.

brad

July 6th, 2008 at 1:54 AM ^

Considering an incredibly fit collection of well above average athletes, a defense that should be one of the best in the nation and a basically reliable kicking and punting game, the only aspect available to make those six games toss ups is a sputtering offense. It seems overly pessimistic to argue that three of six will go down as L's because of just one facet of the game, unless it was defense. The offense will probably work and fail at inconsistent rates. Anyway, I am expecting wins over Utah and ND, and I tend to agree that the other four are tossups. That gets me to about 9-3. Not that my expectation means anything, but it would be really disappointing to see annything worse than 8-4.