Expectations have changed?

Submitted by CoMisch on November 14th, 2018 at 10:05 PM

Have your expectations changed?  Mine have.  Off night for Nova, no doubt, but we saw what we are capable off too. Perhaps the blog’s wrap up will bring me back down.  I don’t, we looked good and this D is tremendous, stupendous really. 

Comments

MoCarrBo

November 14th, 2018 at 10:07 PM ^

So far it looks like Duke and everyone else. However, I think the team has what it takes to capture the Big Ten outright this year, and make the elite 8 at the very least depending on what matchups we get

 

If we smoke North Carolina you can start thinking final four

bluebyyou

November 15th, 2018 at 10:59 AM ^

Final Four? Maybe...

While our defense was magical last night and our inside game was great, there are still two major areas that need to be improved and they are outside shooting and foul shooting.  

I've watched Beilein teams long enough to know how team play typically gets substantially better as the season progresses but we lost a ton of experience last year.

I'm not quite there yet.  Let's see how we do against NC.

Rickett88

November 15th, 2018 at 8:47 AM ^

If realistic is Debbie Downer... count me in with him. It just is so tough to predict injuries, tough stretches, and this seems about right to me. I was just having this conversation with my dad and said top 20 team, 5 seed or better. After last night, I raised the bar to 16 and 4 seed. 

mi casa es blue casa

November 15th, 2018 at 9:44 AM ^

Beilein teams in the past were always fun to watch when they were hitting on all cylinders (TAMU in the tournament last year comes to mind), but were equally as frustrating to watch when they weren’t.  

This team doesn’t have that same look of live or die by the jump shot.  It looks like they’re trying to use their athleticism to beat teams on both ends of the court.  The effort on defense last night was amazing. Nova had a hard time with ball rotation all night because UM was playing the passing lanes so aggressively. 

My expectations have changed only slightly.  The game against Holy Cross was less than a week ago and that offensive performance would have resulted in a loss against the upper half of the B1G. A 3 or 4 seed in the tourney with another Beilein-esque run to the sweet 16 sounds about right.

ijohnb

November 15th, 2018 at 9:04 AM ^

We lost two current NBA players and another one playing in the d-league.  All top tier teams lose talent every year.  Nova is no different.  Ok, I get that they lost considerably more than that, but Duke, Kentucky Carolina, Villanova, players leave. That happens across the board.

To be honest, last year I thought we could and were playing at or near their level until Devincenzo went nuts.  Everybody just kinds of acts like that was a "common performance."  That guy was in a crazy zone and was making parking lot contested threes.  They were better than us last year but not twenty points better.  That was an even up game with a bonkers 5 minutes.

L'Carpetron Do…

November 15th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^

I thought Michigan played well early in that game and yes, Divincenzo had an anamolous game and couldn't be stopped but I also thought the poor officiating really derailed them. Nova was a better team but it would've been nice to see Michigan keep it close and interesting and that became a lot harder when the red-hot garbage officiating kicked in. Glad they got the payback this time.

Bambi

November 14th, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^

The biggest reason for tempering expectations would be we don't know what Nova actually is. Obviously they're pre-season top 10 and we expect them to be good, but they just lost 4 1st round picks.

That being said this was impressive as shit. Shooting is still an issue but should get better as the offense gels. I thought we'd get blown out here and need a few months to gel like recent Beilein teams. 

I'm not going to change season expectations yet since it's just one game. I will say I now expect to have a really strong showing vs UNC and at home win the game. If that happens, then season long expectations go up. Goes from a 5/6 seed type team and upper 3rd of the B1G to top 4 seed and B1G title favorites.

Kevin14

November 15th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^

Feel the exact same way re: expectation change.  I do think 'Nova just won't be as good as anticipated.  Still a tourney team but maybe in the 5-8 seed range.  An impressive win nonetheless.  

What impressed me most was that we dominated without even shooting the ball well.  While I think that's a season-long problem, at least the upside is a lot higher.  

I will admit, I'm always a little skeptical of really strong defensive teams with mediocre offenses come tournament time.  I might just be scared by Virginia.  

ijohnb

November 15th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^

I know that our offensive numbers were not spectacular, but we played a really attacking style of game that can be far more consistent than a three-ball heavy offense of past years.  I don't think we looked offensively challenged last night, I think our offense look kind of scary good for stretches actually.

Gr1mlock

November 15th, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^

Agree.  I don't think this offense is challenged, it's just very different from your classic Beilein offense.  The team as a whole is playing much lower variance basketball, with a stifling defense (that can keep them in games when the shots aren't falling) and a more aggressive, driving offense that is not as susceptible to the "oops, we're shooting 19%, guess we lose" nights that the 5 out perimeter teams can have (though with less ability to bomb teams from 3 into oblivion).  And when you have a lot of talent and athleticism, low-variance basketball is good, since it limits the ability of lesser teams to get hot and beat you.   I'm expecting a Big 10 title, and a good to very good tournament seed; predicting a specific team to make the final four in November is just too speculative.  That said, with this defense,  they can hang with and beat anyone in the country, and if we take down UNC, they very well might have a NCAA bid effectively sewn up before the conference seasons starts. 

Ibow

November 14th, 2018 at 10:13 PM ^

Big Ten Champs would be awesome but it’s early. On the other hand they are a terrifically well coached team. Beilein is the man.

Cant wait to play Sparty. 8~)

Mike Damone

November 14th, 2018 at 10:14 PM ^

Terrific win! 

But it is not how you start the season - it is how you finish it, as we have learned with our last two teams. 

The great news is that the defense is more likely to get better than deteriorate.  But our 3 point and free throw shooting have to improve.  If they do - sky is the limit. 

Let's hope the shooters start connecting...

UMinSF

November 14th, 2018 at 10:16 PM ^

106 games since 'nova lost by double digits - we just annihilated an elite, defending championship program on their home floor.

Hell yeah, my expectations have changed. Like most people, I assumed we'd be a work in progress that peaks in time for the tournament. Now, it looks like the entire season will be fun!

goblue16

November 14th, 2018 at 10:21 PM ^

No it hasnt. This team has a high ceiling but they will struggle in a game they shouldnt and everyone will say NIT here we come blah blah blah. After 12 years of Beilein you would think Michigan fans have learned by now. We will get better as the season goes along and as long as no injuries i think we finish 2nd in the Big ten and make the sweet 16. Anything more is just icing on the cake!

charblue.

November 14th, 2018 at 10:40 PM ^

Wow. Really. You are the king of low expectations. We have won the Big Ten tournament two years in a row. And it wasn't because of the team's offense only. I mean Villanova won the NC two out of the last four years and they played the same number of returning guys in their starting lineup as we did in their first major test of the season.

I get the idea of being realistic but not lowering the threshold of expectation just because...There is nobody on this schedule Michigan can't and won't beat. Not saying they won't lose. Just saying this was a huge barometer for the season and where it might lead.

goblue16

November 15th, 2018 at 1:45 AM ^

The big ten tourney is too unpredictable. We went to the final 4 losing in the quarterfinals of the BTT and we went to the final 4 after winning the BTT. You cant realistically guarantee anyone winning the tourney championship. As far as the regular season championship the big ten doesn't have any solid teams and they may end up canabalizing themselves. I think we are the best team in the big ten but with Wisconsin Indiana Purdue Maryland and even msu, i see us losing a few games. I think we have the best shot at winning the conference.

Perkis-Size Me

November 14th, 2018 at 10:25 PM ^

Long way to go this season, but they’re absolutely a contender to win the Big Ten and make another deep tourney run.

But as far as title aspirations, I have to believe that, at this point, Duke is in a class all by itself. That team is full of Monstars.

BroadneckBlue21

November 15th, 2018 at 12:50 AM ^

What makes you falsely assume past years dictate how everyone makes assessments for future outcomes? 

Stop acting like Coach K didn’t just get the most loaded class he has had in years, if not ever. He got the equivalent of a Calipari class, only K a helluva better coach.

Zion and Barrett are studs at the top of NBA draft. 

In the era of one and dones, this is one of the best—last few years of Duke teams cannot compare.