ESPN Team Efficiencies Update, 2017 Week 4

Submitted by Ecky Pting on September 25th, 2017 at 2:43 PM

The updated ESPN team efficiency ratings have been posted, and after finally showing some signs of life on offense and applying still more aggression on defense, the Wolverines move up 8 spots from #31 to #23 overall. An improvement for sure, but this still ensures plenty of room for more improvement heading into the "Improvement Week". The U-M splits are offense, #79 (up from #87); defense, #4 (back up from #12); and special teams, #42 (down from #25).

Of U-M's 2017 opponents, Penn State assumes the mantel of most efficient at #9 (down from #8). Not far behind are OSU and Wisconsin at #11 and #12, respectively (both up from #16 and #17). Indiana improved even more than Michigan, moving up to #19 from #29. After taking it on the chin from UCF, Maryland suffered a penultimately precipitous drop from #5 to #32. It's worth noting that ND jumped up an impressive 14 spots from #28 to #14 after tuning up on a tomato can. That tomato can is of course, Sparty, who suffered the ultimately precipitous drop from #42 to #72. Sparty's time in the sunshine of  being a more efficiently-rated offense and defense than Michigan was alas, short-lived.

Overall, Michigan moved ahead of two of its opponents this week, including the one that was summarily vanquished on Satuday. Yet, M remains rated lower than four of its opponents for this season. Only one is in the top ten (down from 2), 5 are in the upper quartile of the ratings (down from 7); 9 are in the upper half (down from 10); and none are in the lowest quartile.

Here's a brief synopsis of the ratings, or click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF DEF S/T O'ALL
1 Alabama, SEC 92.7 88.7 78.0 96.4
2 Washington, Pac-12 88.5 79.2 89.3 92.9
3 Oklahoma, Big 12 98.0 67.3 21.2 90.7
4 TCU, Big 12 86.4 75.8 77.7 90.2
5 UCF, American 79.6 92.3 42.3 90.0
6 Miss St, SEC 75.1 89.3 69.1 89.3
7 Georgia, SEC 67.6 93.7 51.7 89.1
8 Oklahoma State, Big 12 94.4 69.5 26.7 88.3
9 Penn State, Big Ten 77.4 78.7 71.3 85.7
10 Clemson, ACC 77.1 87.5 35.8 85.6
11 OSU, Big Ten 78.8 73.2 76.6 84.6
12 Wisconsin, Big Ten 78.5 80.0 41.8 82.8
14 Notre Dame, FBS Indep. 80.6 74.0 44.1 81.1
19 Indiana, Big Ten 60.6 73.7 80.4 76.9
23 Michigan, Big Ten 42.4 91.4 63.0 75.7
32 Maryland, Big Ten 70.1 60.0 67.7 70.9
35 Minnesota, Big Ten 39.5 83.6 66.0 68.8
36 Purdue, Big Ten 63.5 69.4 36.8 67.4
46 Florida, SEC 42.1 69.4 55.9 60.7
51 Air Force, MW 60.9 53.6 51.5 59.3
72 Michigan State, Big Ten 35.5 74.3 35.0 50.7
76 W Michigan, MAC 55.6 26.2 83.6 47.2
79 Cincinnati, American 46.1 44.1 60.5 46.0
93 E Michigan, MAC 16.6 72.9 41.9 39.0
96 Rutgers, Big Ten 26.3 56.8 46.2 38.0
106 Cent Michigan, MAC 31.2 34.8 43.1 28.1

 

Comments

I Like Burgers

September 25th, 2017 at 5:37 PM ^

Used to work with one of the people that makes/understands the formula behind this and I think this early in the season it still relies on preseason projections, recruiting rankings, and returning starters/roster experience. Lots of things that don’t go Michigan’s way — especially on offense. They’ll get ironed out in these kinds of rankings (SP+ factors these things in too early in the season) in the next few weeks

NittanyFan

September 25th, 2017 at 2:58 PM ^

It's interesting, I don't think Bill Connelly has done this before, but he now shows his S&P+ rankings WITH the preseason ratings baked in and WITHOUT them.

He has UCF at #59 for the former, and at #2 for the latter.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2017/9/24/16357660/ncaa-footb…

So it seems that these ESPN rankings don't use any "intelligent priors" of sorts.  Fair enough, a philosophical argument can be made for not using IPs.  But ESPN should still put that disclaimer on their rankings, for transparency sake.

steviebrownfor…

September 25th, 2017 at 4:07 PM ^

Purdue is the "best" team we've played and we beat their ass on the road? Florida would beat Purdue in west Lafayette, and Air Force would give them a good shot.

Purdue is overrrated because their opponents are overrated.