ESPN Lists us as #5 in the CFP Rankings So Far

Submitted by xtramelanin on October 24th, 2018 at 2:13 PM

Mates,

Per the ESPN article I will link below, our beloved Wolverines are listed as #5 on the CFP rankings, out of 15 teams they say are still 'alive' to get in.  Besides us, ohio and Iowa have a shot to make it.  Our now-vanquished friends in EL as well as Wisconson are out, as is our next opponent, PSU. 

Top four were

Bama

Clemson

ND

Georgia (trending down)

Go Blue,

XM

Link: http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25057373/eliminator-unbeaten-ucf-two-loss-texas-alive

Comments

ESNY

October 24th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^

I dont think a team that lost in the Conf Championship game would make it unless every other team had 2 losses.  It's one thing to be passed for the game due to a tiebreaker but losing in the final game, I just don't see losing what is generally considered a play-in game and it having no impact.  Plus, once again Alabama has not exactly had a challenging schedule and if they beat LSU to go undefeated in the regular season, that would still only give Alabama only one top 25 win on the season unless Texas A&M wins the rest of their games and they stick at the bottom end of the top 25

MichiganExile

October 24th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^

This is going to be a tough path to tread so I'll try to do it simply in mathematical and pragmatic terms.

Statistically they gave said event about 30% chance of happening and even laid out the exact path that it ended up following. If anything they proved to be the most accurate. Their models are still pretty good for events filled with uncertainty.  

joeyb

October 24th, 2018 at 3:23 PM ^

That 30% came from running 10,000 simulations with random errors in polling in either direction. So, that means that the 7,000 ended up one way and 3,000 ended up another. He repeatedly said that the margin of error in polling is generally 2-3%, which was more than enough to swing the odds.

That being said, beyond predicting games, I'm not sure how he can say they have a better shot than us. We'd be in nearly identical situations. The only thing I can think of is that they are running their ELO on the back end to determine it.

ldevon1

October 24th, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^

That's better than Marcus Ray. On BTN live today, he says that Purdue is the best team in the B1G and Michigan is #2. Howard Griffith laughed at him, and it's painfully obvious he has an agenda at this point, I just don't know what it could be. 

The Mad Hatter

October 24th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^

I wonder what crawled up his ass and died?  Does he really hate Harbaugh so much that he's willing to constantly shit on the school that gave him everything good in his life?

Seriously Marcus.  Every good thing that has ever happened to you happened because you went to Michigan (and had Woodson covering half the field).

BayWolves

October 24th, 2018 at 2:36 PM ^

PSU and OSU are going to try as hard as they can to knock us out but I don't see it happening. We'll win our remaining games as long as the team stays focused and plays with that same aggression - which they will.

UM Fan from Sydney

October 24th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^

Anyone who doesn't think Michigan is in if they win their remaining games (including the conference title) is crazy. There is no chance in hell UM gets left out when you consider their strength of schedule alone. All three rivals were road games with one of them being a loss by only seven points, which was also the first game of the season with a new QB.

EGD

October 24th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^

I think it's very unlikely that M could be left out if they run the table from here.  But there are a couple ways I could see it happening if the SEC champion is not Alabama. 

If Clemson and ND win out, they are both undefeated and will be in.

If LSU, Georgia, or Florida wins out from here, that team will finish with one loss and necessarily have beaten Alabama.  If we assume that's Alabama's only loss, then you have three 12-1 teams (Alabama, Michigan, and the SEC champ) for two spots.  It's not outside the realm of possibility that the committee takes the two SEC teams and leaves Michigan out.  

 

Mr Miggle

October 24th, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^

I think it's nearly outside the realm of possibility. The committee left the Big Ten out last season in a very close call. Taking two SEC teams in that scenario means they want to blow up the current system, because that's what would happen. 

Oklahoma is the bigger threat.