ESPN fudges a numbers game to argue UCF beats more quality opponents than Michigan this season

Submitted by Arb lover on November 18th, 2018 at 10:51 AM

Opinions are like, you know, well everyone has one. So ESPN's opinion is not otherwise noteworthy except for the fact that the numbers they use to argue that UCF is more deserving that Michigan, are wrong. Since its a shot across Michigan's bow, here you go. (It's a ways down in the article):

No, UCF hasn't played a brutal schedule, but the Knights now have wins over Memphis (7-4), Temple (7-4) and Cincinnati (9-2). If they beat USF next week, that will be four wins over teams that finish 7-5 or better. That's as many as Notre Dame has and better than that of Michigan (3)...

Michigan currently has wins over 4 teams that will finish 7-5 or better, unless you believe that MSU has a chance of losing at home to Rutger next week. 

Then since we are comparing next week, if UCF wins (assumed here) lets also assume Michigan wins out, right? (Otherwise we aren't in the discussion).

To win out Michigan will have 6 wins over teams 7-5 or better vs UCF's 4. (not to mention the quality of those opponents).

10-2 OSU

9-3 PSU (plays Maryland next week)

7-5 MSU (Plays Rutger next week)

8-5 Northwestern (Plays Illinois next week)

8-5 Northwestern (Assuming we win out, we play and beat them twice)

8-4 Wisconsin (Plays Minnesota next week. They might lose this, but still come out 7-5 or better).

One could also add that UCF will have had 2 "quality" road win by 1 point, over Memphis and whatever happens vs USF. 

Michigan will have have had 4.

Additionally, if Western Michigan beats NIU at home on Tuesday (a game they have a good chance to win), Michigan will have 7 wins over teams 7-5 or better vs UCF's 4. 

Let's not call it 3, please. 

Comments

jmstranger

November 18th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^

I was listening to ESPN radio last night and they completely admitted that they were hoping the Commitee moved teams around and “shook things up” so they’d have something to talk about on their hour long CFP show. One guy even said he’d move Georgia to #4 this week because he could just move Michigan back there after OSU because it’d “get the fans talking”. They literally do not care about accuracy, only ratings for their dumb shows. 

cletus318

November 18th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^

This seems like a bit of an overreaction to one sentence in a long piece, not to mention the comparison (erroneous as it was) wasn't solely about Michigan. 

TNWolverine

November 18th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^

Any of those teams, including UCF couldn't hang in a power five conference. Will someone other than Auburn please silence those ass holes in whatever bowl game they go to. I'm sick of their narrative.

wolverine1987

November 18th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^

Yes. I honestly don't give a crap about whether our not ESPN fudged the numbers. The fact is, and has been, that no matter what, UCF is worse than at minimum, the top 15 teams and probably more, no matter what they do. As an objective fact, they have nowhere near the talent level of any of the top 20 teams, they play in a conference that's even weaker than that, and there is no justification whatsoever for even having them within the top ten spots of the playoff rankings.

And they can save the we beat Auburn spin. An SEC team in a bowl with nothing to play for and no respect for their opponent can be beat, and it means nothing. 

mgobleu

November 18th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^

They're reaching. A team with a bad record in the big ten would still be considered a "good win" for UCF but it's not for us. Yet at least four (5 next week) of our wins would be considered absolutely MONUMENTAL for UCF, yet for us they're meh. 

Leaders And Best

November 18th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

Anyone who tries to compare Michigan's resume or strength of schedule to UCF is just plain stupid. I am willing to entertain an argument where someone makes a case for UCF based on eye test, common opponents, or being undefeated, but that is about it. And to add to the ridiculousness, UCF plays one less game than Michigan this year because the game @UNC was cancelled due to Hurricane Florence.

I would look up the numbers and put them here, but it would be such a colossal waste of time that I am not even going to bother.

crg

November 18th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

Is UCF a better team than UM?  Probably (almost assuredly) not.  Does UCF deserve a chance in the playoff if they win out?  Absolutely.  It is not their fault that the current playoff format/implementation is unfair.

ppToilet

November 18th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^

 Some team that is "worthy" will always complain about being left out. If you expand to six teams, does UCF still get in over Georgia, OSU, Oklahoma, West Virginia or Washington State?

 I, for one, don't believe UCF should get in because their schedule is crap. At least ND had a tough schedule on paper: Michigan, Stanford, USC, Florida State should all be tough games in normal years.

crg

November 18th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^

No, it's the same logic as saying that a MBB team deserves a shot at the playoffs they go undefeated (provided that they are in the same league as the traditional power teams).  It may be a long shot, and they might have to jump through more proverbial hoops than everyone else, but they should be able to control their own destiny from the beginning if the season just like everyone else.  If not, what us the point in classifying them in the same league?

GoBLUE_SemperFi

November 18th, 2018 at 11:41 AM ^

They have to create a lower accomplishment (7-win team), because UCF doesn't have a resume with the higher, ranked teams accomplishment.  Michigan will have 5 wins over ranked teams, two on the road, one a top-10.  UCF will have one.  It's absurd to even suggest that UCF should be in the conversation, with that weak schedule.

M and M Boys

November 18th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^

ESPN long ago trashed their founding principles to become the best sports reporters in the electronic media world.

Now, they want to make news--reporting it is secondary.

So they hire a conga line of talking bobbleheads and have joined the cable news tabloid circus.

NDP1075

November 18th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^

ESPN / ABC is still not happy about losing the big10 to Fox and it shows in their continual “hot takes” (detractions) on the level of big10 play.  An organization of integrity challenged mouthbreathers.