ESPN FPI Predicts 8.3 Wins for 2017 Season

Submitted by GoBlueDenver on April 18th, 2017 at 10:46 AM

ESPN's FPI Predicts 8.3 wins for 2017 season

"...Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule."

1. OSU 11.8-1.0

2. Bama 10.6-1.9

3. Oklahoma 11.0-1.9

4. FSU 10.4-2.2

.

8. PSU 9.9-2.2

.

10. Wisc 10.6-2.2

.

17. Michigan 8.3-3.7

 

" If you’re wondering why the totals don’t add up to whole numbers – that’s because it factors in the odds of each team reaching and winning/losing the Big Ten title game." (collegespun)

 
Now lets take a look at our schedule:
 
9/2 vs Florida
9/9 vs Cincinnati
9/16 vs Air Force
9/23 @ Purdue
10/7 vs MSU
10/14 @ Indiana
10/21 @ PSU
10/28 vs Rutgers
11/4 vs Minnesota
11/11 @ Maryland
11/18 @ Wisconsin
11/25 vs OSU
 
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Not difficult to find 3-4 losses if you're a pessimist, but this team is going to surprise some people outside of our community.

Comments

Wolverine Devotee

April 18th, 2017 at 10:49 AM ^

People who like to pleasure themselves to "returning starters" stats like Phil Steele will say this.

But people who actually watch all of the games know better.

Beating the crap out of half the teams we played last year gave the young talent valuable experience.

Indiana Blue

April 18th, 2017 at 11:27 AM ^

we have "1" returning starter on defense, however ever one of our starting D line played significatly last year ... and is likely the best D line in the B1G.  I think our secondary will be well above average and the LB's are probably as athletic as any we've ever had.  

We will score points on everyone ... look what Harbaugh did with Jake and Wilton and the O line in those years was meh.  Give me the over ...

Go Blue! 

TrueBlue2003

April 18th, 2017 at 1:01 PM ^

Just means that an event that had less than 5 percent chance of happening, happened.  Which isn't crazy because those types of events WILL necessarily happen about 1 in 20 tries.

This FPI model is pretty good in aggregate because it strongly consider recruiting which is a very good indicator of the talent replacing starters who left.  Might it be low for us?  Probably in this case because the Oline starters weren't great last year and that could certainly be a case of addition by subtraction.  Our dline backups last year were starter quality, etc.

But I doubt anyone could consistently beat this model using the eye test on all 120+ teams.  A well contructed model is going to do pretty well at minimizing errors over larger and larger sample sizes.

drjaws

April 18th, 2017 at 10:52 AM ^

Toss up games are

 

Fla (we don't do well in neutral site games)

@ Wiscy

@PSU

 

I think we win 1 or 2 of those 3.  No one has a shot against us this year in the Big House.

 

The end.

DrMantisToboggan

April 18th, 2017 at 11:51 AM ^

Auburn was 8-5 because of their offense. Their defense was 9th in S&P+, which is impressive given their offense's lack of ability to stay on the field or give them good field position. S&P said an average offense could get 18 on Auburn's D and Mayfield did them for 35 points on 300 yards passing and 2 TDs.

Ali G Bomaye

April 18th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^

Kind of true. He's played five significant nonconference games in his Oklahoma career: 2015 @ Tennessee, 2015 playoffs against Clemson, 2016 vs. Houston, 2016 vs. Ohio State, and 2016 bowl vs. Auburn. He was pretty bad against Tennessee, Clemson, and Ohio State, and good but not great against Houston and Auburn. He has yet to play an excellent game against a non-Big 12 school, and Big 12 schools all suck at defense (in the past two years, 2015 Kansas State is the only team that allowed fewer than 24 ppg).

DrMantisToboggan

April 18th, 2017 at 11:48 AM ^

Jeff Mead is their new #1, he looks really good. 6'5 rangey guy. They return Andrews, who is their Gronk-type WR/TE guy. He caught 7 TDs last year with 500 yards. They have JUCO transfers Marquise Brown and Marcelias Sutton that fans are really hyping up. Brown is only 5'11 but he is a 4.3 guy. Sutton is a running back - they think he can take over the load for Perine/Mixon. Oklahoma's OL is supposed to be good this year as well.

Brown HUDL: http://www.hudl.com/video/3/3050489/57d8c80af6170981ac32faa0

Sutton HUDL: https://www.hudl.com/video/3/1186192/585dd23cc124dd1654ba8423

 

Now my question for you would be, who is going to prevent Mayfield (maybe the leading challenger to Lamar Jackson for the Heisman), from torching their secondary? Lattimore? Conley? Hooker? Damon Webb (lol)? OSU loses as much in their secondary as OU does from their offensive skill players. However, the difference is Oklahoma returns one of the better quarterbacks in the country and he gets to face a secondary where most players will be starting the second game of their career.

I Like Burgers

April 18th, 2017 at 12:20 PM ^

Look man, I'm not going to bother trying to debate you on this.  You clearly have your mind made up that Ohio State is trash and you have no respect for them.  

If you want to get all excietd about a guy that has 16 catches in three seasons being their new #1 WR, some unknown Juco quantities, and some role players stepping up into major roles on the road in the horseshoe and think they will be able to replicate the production of a trio of All-American level talents, then good for you.

DrMantisToboggan

April 18th, 2017 at 12:40 PM ^

The funny thing is that I am always citing the difference in how I feel regarding our rivalries with OSU and MSU being the large amount of respect I have for OSU. I think Meyer has cultivated an absolute powerhouse. I wouldn't call a 2 loss season, which is what I have predicted for them, "trash". I certainly respect what they did by going into Oklahoma after losing a ton of talent to the draft and winning comfortably. That's why I believe that the same will happen for Oklahoma this year. Oklahoma lost almost all their skill position production on offense and OSU theirs on defense. I just think Oklahoma has a major advantage in bringing back an All-American, senior quarterback when OSU is replacing their entire secondary. That's all.

buckeyejonross

April 19th, 2017 at 2:44 AM ^

Also to add here, OSU lost Lattimore and Conley, but Denzel Ward rotated time evenly with both from the Northwestern game on. The kid will be a number one corner and have a floor of good. Dame Webb is what he is, good not great. Certainly the weak link last year when his three co-starters were NFL 1st rounders. He'll also have a floor of good. Whoever replaces Hooker will be a total unknown. Damon Arnette seems likely to man the other corner spot, and he was an active liability as a redshirt freshman last year, but so was Conley and so was Eli Apple and so was Dorian Grant. His floor with normal improvement is probably average.

Also of note, OSU's two deep at defensive line is stacked, and the best way to cover for an average secondary is an above average pass rush. OSU should have that. 

g_reaper3

April 18th, 2017 at 12:25 PM ^

OSU has lost to Clemson 2x in bowls/playoffs, MSU 2x, once at home, once in B1G playoff, Virginia Tech at home and PSU on the road.

Maybe they will drop a couple games but I dont see worse than 11-2.  Its unfortunate but they have had a great run of success under Tressel and Meyer. 

 

corundum

April 18th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^

I still don't understand why people think Florida and PSU will be tossups.

Harbaugh already eviscerated Florida once. He has an entire fall to scheme up a gameplan. Florida will be starting a freshman QB against Gary and company. Florida's offense has been underwhelming for almkst a decade. The SEC east is pretty much the Sun Belt conference so they are overrated to begin with.

Penn State got fucking wrecked by us last year. Yes, their LB corps were injured and the ejection didn't help, but they were blasted in all three phases of the game. McSorely is overrated and will probably come back to Earth a bit this season. Franklin isn't half the coach of Harbaugh, and our entire staff and player talent is on an entirely different echelon than PSU.

uncle leo

April 18th, 2017 at 11:28 AM ^

Michigan may be going into that game and how overrated PSU is, that is by no means a gimmie at all.

B10 road games are always a massive challenge. 

I'm actually way more confident in the game against Florida compared to PSU. Florida can't move the damn ball, and they have been in the bottom half of the NCAA in terms of PPG in the last several years.

Ali G Bomaye

April 18th, 2017 at 11:22 AM ^

Michigan couldn't win there in 19 OTs because Al Borges is a moron who doesn't know how to develop a run game and because Brady Hoke coached scared from the middle of the fourth quarter on.

Since Harbaugh was hired, we've gone 6-3 on the road. The only losses were a 7-point loss to Utah in Harbaugh's first game, a 1-point loss at Iowa, and an OT loss at OSU. None of those seem particularly egregious.

I think Penn State was incredibly overrated by the end of last year. I can't wait to go into Happy Valley and put the smack down.

DrMantisToboggan

April 18th, 2017 at 11:31 AM ^

Penn State was stupid overrated by the end of the year. They've got a good running back and a good line backer and a good offensive coordinator. We will dominate their OL. We present major mismatches for their secondary. Their DL won't be good enough to consistently beat our OL.

If we are within one score or ahead at halftime, we will blow them out of the water in the second half. Franklin is a fool, the only thing that gives me pause is the first super-tough environment for our young guys. As long as we can stay with them long enough for our guys to adjust to the crowd, our talent will take over and our advantage in that category will become evident.

uncle leo

April 18th, 2017 at 11:34 AM ^

But I'd rather be stupid overrated and accomplish what they did rather than what Michigan won last season. I'll take a B10 division, championship, and Rose over nothing and losing in the Orange Bowl.

Yeah, I think they are overrated too. But they beat OSU. They did what was needed to get to the title game.

DrMantisToboggan

April 18th, 2017 at 12:18 PM ^

Obviously you want the official records to say W and not L when the game is over, and they got a W for OSU and we got an L. I can't really push back against that. 

However, they beat OSU in a similar way to how OSU beat us. OSU dominated Penn State for almost all of that game, Penn State's offense could barely move the ball, certainly not with any consistency. OSU just let them stay close enough that a couple flukey events changed a game that felt like it should have gone the other way. 

Obviously 10-3 feels better when you were expected to go 8-5 than when you were expected to go 13-0. But, who was the better team last year? Who has the better foundation and program going forward? The answer to those questions are obvious, and the reasons why I wouldn't trade our season for Penn State's.

uncle leo

April 18th, 2017 at 12:24 PM ^

Last season for what Penn State did? You can't be serious?

This has nothing to do what will happen in the future. I agree that they are going to probably not repeat what they did and they had a collection of great things happen to win that title.

But they did. And they did something Michigan hasn't done yet in the inception of the BTC.

hfhmilkman

April 18th, 2017 at 1:16 PM ^

We lost to OSU because in the 4th quarter every 50/50 call did not go our way.  PSU perhaps loses when the bomb Barrett throws late in the 4th with his receiver breaking free goes incomplete because of an iffy no call.  Was it clear pass interference?  No.  Could it have been called pass interference?  Yes.  If it was a Michigan defender against OSU, most certainly yes.  

uncle leo

April 18th, 2017 at 1:40 PM ^

Michigan lost because they couldn't step on the throat of a team they had down? 

Sick of hearing about the excuses and the short 1 yard crap. You are up 17-7 on a team that had no idea how to move the ball and it got away. Period. Time to beat your rival, enough is enough.

The Krusty Kra…

April 18th, 2017 at 11:42 PM ^

and I kept having this sinking feeling that what was going to happen, happened. It's not about J.T getting that call, it's about that game should have never gone to OT in the first place, it's about the fact that in every loss last year, Michigan could not ice games they were well in control of. Happened the year before against Michigan State as well. I think this is something that will improve, but this team needs to become closers to compete.