ESPN bracketology- UM now a 5 in Midwest

Submitted by TK on February 28th, 2018 at 12:27 PM
I’d take that all day long.

Comments

G. Gulo of the Dale

February 28th, 2018 at 4:32 PM ^

Villanova never recruits at the level of the blue bloods and tends to "get the most out of their talent," which (I think) can make them vulnerable to an early exit from the tournament.  Also, this year's squad is not as good defensively as in years past.  

On the other hand... they are the best scoring team in the country (87.5 ppg in a strong conference), two of their losses occurred when they were missing starters to injury, and ESPN currently lists them as no. 2 in both RPI and BPI, so I'm not sure they are "overrated" in any really obvious way.  They also beat Xavier twice by a combined 40 points. 

(None of this, of course, makes them some sort of Final Four lock, which I'm not sure even exists this year.)

[EDIT:  Meant principally as a response to JHumich, furthering the conversation above]

JHumich

February 28th, 2018 at 10:57 PM ^

(A) Objectively, they are terrible at rebounding and defense, which have an increased importance in the tourney

(B) Subjectively, I think that the Big East as a whole is overrated

Whole Milk

February 28th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^

I said this is one of the other bracketology threads, but Kansas doesn't scare me in the slightesst. Let Z live in Grahams pocket for 40 minutes and have their huge immobile center have to stretch out further than the block or let Wagner rain down on him. Think it is actually a very favorable matchup for us. 

Yo_Blue

February 28th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^

By the numbers... 

Last year all 5 seeds were out of the tournament after the first weekend.

No 5 seed has won the Championship (data back to 1985)

Only six 5 seeds made the Final Four

LINK

uncle leo

February 28th, 2018 at 12:35 PM ^

Was huge. I think M could work their way into a 4 if they beat Iowa/Illinois and NEB, regardless of what happens with MSU.

But a win over MSU, you'd almost have to give them a 4, no?

ijohnb

February 28th, 2018 at 12:42 PM ^

seed if they win on Thursday and beat Nebraska.  5 seed if they win on Thursday but lose to Nebraska.  6 seed if they lose to either Iowa or Illinois in the opening round.  4 seed if they beat Nebraska but State gets upset and M plays and beats either Wisconsin or Maryland in the semis instead.  3 seed if they beat MSU again.  3 seed if they win the BTT regardless of who the opponents end up being.

 

J.

February 28th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^

Right now, there are other fanbases sitting around thinking the same thing about their team -- and every single one of them has more chances to get a résumé-boosting win than Michigan does.  Texas and UCLA may both miss the tournament; even with a second win over MSU, that's still just three wins over tournament teams, and 5-6 quadrant one wins, depending on if PSU can pull back into the RPI top 75.

They might get a 4 with a win over MSU, but it's certainly not a guarantee.  They're the last 5 seed in the Bracket Matrix right now; they'd have to jump four teams and have nobody else jump them, despite having an entire extra week to do so.

CLion

February 28th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

Lunardi has Nebraska first 4 out. We are definitely going to get their best shot.

Also surprised Lunardi has UNC holding onto a two seed after losing at home to Miami last night.

Whole Milk

February 28th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^

The reason that the 5-12 curse is a thing is two fold. One, is that the 12 used to be only the really good mid-majors, who are typically underseeded because the selection committee loves big conference basketball, no matter how shitty they have been. This partially changed when they went to 68 teams because one of the 12 seeds is going to be a play in game on some of the last teams in the field. 

The other reason that those upsets occur so often is that a lot of times, the 5 seeds are teams that had really solid resumes but have been faltering as of late. Teams that were 2 or 3 seeds but lost something like 4 of 6 down the stretch. Obviously teams that aren't playing well are more likely to get picked off. That would include the likes of Ohio State, Texas Tech, Arizona, etc. Certainly not teams that have been surging and improving their seeds at rapid rates. 

Milk

February 28th, 2018 at 6:05 PM ^

The 5-12 curse isn't a thing, at least not statistically.  5 seeds win their first round games 67.1% of the time.  This is a better win percentage than every lower seed.  

 

The 5s are cursed in later rounds though.  They're less likely than 6 seeds to win both their second round game and their third round game.

 

Source: http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

KennyHiggins

February 28th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^

Louisiana in the opener?  Cakewalk game 2.

What's bullish is that we are becoming consensus Top 20, among AP/Coaches Polls, KenPom, BPI.  Win 2 or 3 this week and I think we're a 4/5 in MW.  Take it

Mike Damone

February 28th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^

bracket would be terrific.  #4 seed is Texas Tech, who IMO would be a great matchup for us, after watching them get smoked by West Virginia on Monday.  #1 seed is Xavier, probably the weakest of the "1's".

Unfortunately - keep in mind this is that moron Joe Lunardi's bracket.  This is not an intelligent individual.  Example - Auburn gets the crap kicked out of them last night by Arkansas, and are losers of 3 of their last 4 games, including Florida and a bad South Carolina team.  Because of this, today Lunardi moves their seed to... oh, wait he doesn't move them at all, leaves them as a #3 seed.  Asinine.

Still think we are worthy of a #4 seed ultimately - prob only way to get it is make BTT finals in tourney, as ThatTCGuy says above.

snarling wolverine

February 28th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^

It's not that impressive when you consider that the 97.9% is just for his very last bracket, that he makes on Selection Sunday.   It's not like he's calling his shot a week in advance.

By that Sunday, at least 60 of the 68 teams are total locks and probably another 5-6 are extremely likely.  It's basically a matter of guessing the last couple of teams in the field.

It's the seeding that's the actual challenge, and he totally sucks at that - 53% is terrible when you're talking about a prediction made a few hours in advance.