East Lansing weather forecast
October 16th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
Accuweather says “a couple of showers” in the afternoon. So a factor to consider but not to the degree it was last year.
Also, I’m curious...so last year the rain was a problem because we still couldn’t run the ball with consistency *and* our passing offense was terrible. This year we can run with much more consistency and our passing offense is pretty good (though not great). MSU, by contrast, looks more like we did last year.
Obviously they’ll bring their A game and throw the kitchen sink at us, but my question is: would rain still benefit them like it did last year, or would the roles likely be reversed?
I mean, I get they can just bring an extra guy into run support, but I figure stuff like zone read and stretch could be extra effective if their DE’s are slipping. Also we can just mash them with Mason.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
The rain last year was going to benefit who ever had the lead at the time, it was not MSU specific.
I have no idea who this weather forecast favors. Then again, I really can't get a feel for this game at all. It does not seem to me that either teams "strength" plays to a particular weakness of the other. I think our pass rush v. their offensive line is the closest thing to a true "mismatch" in the game. If the forecast results in the game being more of a grind it out on the ground game, I think it probably slightly favors MSU because our d-line won't have an opportunity to get at Lewerke as much.
Also, their backup punter has shown to be pretty bad. And a windy wet forecast could aggravate that issue for them even more as well.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
it gets worse later in the day
the noon start should mitigate some of this
October 16th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Get up two scores before the wind kicks in at half.... and then watch Lewerke run for his life while trying to throw into a gust on 3rd and long.
This could be just like last year.... team winning at half has huge weather advantage in second half.
October 16th, 2018 at 2:21 PM ^
Cute little trick plays require perfect execution... conditions. Manball on the other hand...requires Murderbacks.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^
*sigh* There has to be a voodoo priest or something on Sparty's payroll providing a steady flow of chickens or something for this one game. Weakness in passing defense? Sure thing, here's 20mph winds and rain to boot.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
Is rain/wind really that bad for us? Yes, MSU has a great rush D but so do we. Plus I'll take our rush O over theirs any day. MSU had to throw the ball 50+ times vs NW and Penn State, and rain/wind won't help them there.
Penn State just ran for over 200 yards vs MSU, and we just limited Jonathan Taylor to his lowest rushing yards in a game this year.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^
The trash bowl is real grass, isn't it? If so, soggy grass would seem to disfavor the quicker more athletic team - that would be us.
Shitty throwing conditions, plus soggy grass, plus a good run defense isn't going to be fun. I think Shea's running ability is going to win this game for us.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^
As of now, it's supposed to be 0.1 inches between now and the game. It shouldn't effect the field conditions.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
That's good. Though, last time we played there I remember people slipping all over the field and sending chunks flying everywhere, yet no rain at all.
I wouldn't be surprised if MSU soaked the field to get an advantage.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:07 AM ^
Double post...
October 16th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
McSorley is probably quicker than Shea and he was extremely limited on the ground
October 16th, 2018 at 11:42 AM ^
I agree, but if Mcsorley made any sort of adjustment and busted it through the C gap instead of straight up the centers ass, I think they would’ve faired much better. They were holes there for him to exploit
October 16th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
McSorely has dipshit Frankling designing his plays. Shea doesn't.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
National Weather Service says the rain is likely before 8 a.m. Then partly sunny. So their forecast isn't too bad.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
At some point, we are just going to have to win. And win by a lot. Hell, if we win by a lot, we might even be able to turn the tide, and start selling T-shirts.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^
Dantonio's weather machine is getting cranked up. Will be a full monsoon by Saturday
October 16th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
This is the most MSU weather forecast ever. Sucks. But just win the damn game!
October 16th, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
The rest of that forecast:
100% chance of a trash tornado
October 16th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
Thursday would be the first day that I would start looking at a weather forecast. That forecast will change several times between now and then.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^
i think its pretty well documented that poor weather favors the underdog in that it introduces more variability which is usually what an less talented team needs to beat a more talented team.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
I'm seeing rain showers forcasted before 8am, then partly sunny, 48*.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
God, the more I look at this game, the more I'm pretty certain UM loses.
I've just seen this this game many times before. Great run defenses, ugly weather, ugly game, will come down to 1 or 2 big plays and TOs. And this is the game MSU wins. They're at home, they'll have their saved UM stuff. They'll grab OL and WR as they've done all year so nothing is clean then just bide their time until UM shoots themselves in the foot or one of their gadget plays/TO luck gets them the lead and they hold it. Tale as old as time.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
I am going through a version of that. It is not a game that "I am pretty certain UM loses," but I am not seeing that decisive advantage anywhere that I want to see. Regardless of weather, I would feel a lot more comfortable about this game if we could have exploited Wisconsin's depleted secondary through the air more than we did. Wisconsin was without both starting safeties and a starting corner and Patterson still couldn't find anything deep. It looked to me that they were specifically trying to open it up through the air and our receivers couldn't get separation. That does not bode well. I don't know exactly what our "go to" is going to be against State and that bothers me.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Yeah, the UW game spooked me in that regard. After Maryland I was positive that the passing game would take a step forward going into UW and MSU. While UW doesn't have a great D, the middle of the front 7 is very good, so I figured the plan would be to pass on that secondary...and UM couldn't. MSU's D is significantly better overall than UW, but the pass D is about the same, so UM will have to rely on the pass even more. Bad weather does not help this.
I know UM's D is also really really good and MSUs offense is uncharacteristically bad, but they'll have UM's D scouted so will get something. Then it comes to turnovers, and I hate a game that relies on TOs when UM is expected to win.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Yeah, the UW game spooked me in that regard. After Maryland I was positive that the passing game would take a step forward going into UW and MSU. While UW doesn't have a great D, the middle of the front 7 is very good, so I figured the plan would be to pass on that secondary...and UM couldn't. MSU's D is significantly better overall than UW, but the pass D is about the same, so UM will have to rely on the pass even more. Bad weather does not help this.
I know UM's D is also really really good and MSUs offense is uncharacteristically bad, but they'll have UM's D scouted so will get something. Then it comes to turnovers, and I hate a game that relies on TOs when UM is expected to win.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
Michigan saved stuff too. We also have two (maybe three if you count Milton) legitimate running threats at QB. Michigan hasn't had that in a long time.
I think MSU gets "defeated with dignity" in a too-close-for-comfort game.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:30 AM ^
What based on history has convinced you that UM saved stuff for MSU? I've yet to really see that. Remember two years ago when UM ran up the score to 78 on Rutgers using Peppers in the wild cat and used the counters and pass counters off the base play in a totally unnecessary way? What happened when they tried that against MSU and OSU? It was dead. Both Hoke and Harbaugh seem to be a 'put stuff on film' instead of a 'save for opponent' game planers. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think the evidence backs up that they'll be saving a bunch of stuff.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^
I think you will see things from that diamond formation that they haven't shown yet, for sure, and probably a variant of the Ambry Thomas end around (possible reverse with DPJ). I am also guessing that the McCaffrey double-pass look was thrown out against Wisconsin to set something up this week.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Busting out down G against a supposedly tough Nebraska and saving the real RPO for Wisconsin. Both resulting in a total ass kicking. The diamond formation when they HAD to score against NW.
I don't think this season is going to be "just wait until the pepcat pays off".
October 16th, 2018 at 11:14 AM ^
You and Ty Butterfield should watch the game together so no one else has to be around you two.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
Jim Harbaugh has never lost a game in East Lansing. Not as a player. Not as a coach.
He's not about to start on Saturday. We're winning this game.
And we're beating OSU.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
John O’Korn isn’t walking out on that field. Last year we had terrible line play, terrible QB play, and the worst possible turnover luck and barely lost. We are much improved this year. Hopefully we get over the PTSD and just play our game. MSU is not a juggernaut and can and will be beaten.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
That was right around the time that they gave up on zone blocking too. The OL looked much better later in the year after repping power nonstop.
October 16th, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^
MSU is certainly not as good as they were last year and we are certainly better than we were last year, but upsets still happen especially on the road.
Nonetheless, I think we should win this game.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
Ugh. Can we have decent weather in this game for a change?
October 16th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^
It's late October in Michigan. So...no.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:08 AM ^
I'm trying to convince myself that MSU on O is better than what we've seen this season. Still, with how putrid their OL has been, their RB's aren't very good (including Scott), and with the injuries at WR all they really have is Davis as a major weapon.
There is not one position group on offense that MSU is better than Michigan at; not one.
Defensively their DL is solid, but lacks a serious pass rusher. Linebackers are pretty good lead by Bachie, and their secondary even with Layne is mediocre.
Defensively, I'd say their DL and LBs can compare to ours, but may be a step below, and the secondary isn't even close.
Special Teams: they have a more consistent kicker than us, yet their punting game has been a shitshow all year. I'd also give the edge to us in the return game.
On paper, we are superior in almost every facet of the game, yet I'm still nervous as hell that this will be an ugly game where Dantonio likes it.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
Bachie is an excellent LB - he's All-American level, or at least in that discussion. He makes all of the run fits correct even when their very good DL makes a mistake. The other LBs are just OK (including the racist Papa John Reschke). Devin Bush is better than Bachie, but he's a no-doubt first or second team AA right now.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
So trash monsoon it is, then.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=East+Lansing&state=MI&site=GRR&textField1=42.736&textField2=-84.4843&e=0#.W8X9gvaQyM8
October 16th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^
SCORE EARLY AND SCORE OFTEN
no slow starts....
October 16th, 2018 at 11:16 AM ^
Good. I hope they have their biggest recruiting show this weekend as well. Let the kids see MSU get their asses kicked in shitty weather no less.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
Mork has his weather demons on speed dial and is going to make a sacrifice to them Friday night.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
Honestly, the weather hurts MSU more than Michigan. MSU has the 118th-best rush offense in the country, and rely so heavily on throwing the ball (Lewerke has thrown the ball over 100 times the past 2 weeks) that shitty weather will mess with them way more than Michigan, which can credibly generate offense on the ground.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
Man, the Negative Nancy takes in this thread are hard to read!
First, Michigan's defense is going to stop Lewerke, which means that MSU's offense will be stopped. They rely on him for everything. And their running game is crap, I don't care if LJ Scott plays, or not - he's been crap since his freshman year. Perfect weather, rain, wind... Doesn't matter, MSU will be happy to score 17 points (I don't think it will be that much).
Offensively, Michigan is far more diverse and fast than they were in 2016 - when they put up 30 points and started garbage time early. Bring the wind and rain, there's a much better running attack, fronted by an OL coming into mashing form, to eat the clock. What gap will MSU abandon? Which one will UM attack on a per play basis? As the season has come along, Michigan has improved in all offensive facets.
MSU is going to get the Wisconsin treatment. Only with less remorse, because Harbaugh likes Puntin' Paul Chryst. He does not like Mack Dentonio.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
^^^ This is what I'm talking about. We are the better team, by far. We have the better coaching staff, by far. And we're playing for revenge and a shot at the playoffs.
I don't care if there is a monsoon. We're winning this game.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:48 AM ^
Mack Dentonio.
Is someone keeping track of these? That was a good one.
October 16th, 2018 at 12:18 PM ^
I largely agree. A lot of people read way too much into last year's game, where Michigan was starting it's (apparent) 3rd string QB, in a storm, and turned the ball over 4 times while MSU, a team that was worse at ball security than UM last year, didn't lose one. Can MSU win? Sure. So can anyone on the schedule save Rutgers. But Michigan is, what, 2-3 plays away from being 3-0 against MSU since Harbaugh arrived? UM is the better team and MSU needed a ton of luck to beat them last year and PSU this year.
October 16th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
It’s still too far out to call but seriously wtf. Please give us a dry day.