East Lansing weather forecast

Submitted by Sauce Castillo on October 16th, 2018 at 10:42 AM

50% chance of rain and 20-30 mph winds, which will make this score even tighter.

Let's hope the same OL performance we did last week and Don Brown has the boys up front ready to go.

Comments

Watching From Afar

October 16th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^

Valid point, however it's generally not a good sign that the weather prediction has gotten worse as we've gotten closer to the weekend.

Had Monday's forecast been today's and then Tuesday been slightly better, you could project the conditions getting better and better as the days draw on. Getting worse is not a good sign even this far out.

Watching From Afar

October 16th, 2018 at 2:46 PM ^

It's not a MSU v. Michigan thing.

Look at MSU v. Maryland last year. Maryland was down to Bortenschloger (sp) at Spartan Stadium and almost pulled that upset because of the snow. Play that game in dry conditions and MSU's offense can actually throw against 9 man boxes and not fumble/slip in the open field.

rc15

October 16th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^

My eye-test says they don't truly have the best run defense. I would love to see them play Wisconsin this year.

They have a good run defense, but it is ranked the best because they pass defense is atrocious... Teams are much more likely to pass on 1st and 2nd down, when you gain more YPC on average.

footballguy

October 16th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^

The two big runs PSU had was because they sold out to stop the pass. Other than that, PSU had pretty much nothing going on the ground. Obviously those two runs count, but they likely don't happen in a game where they're expecting the run more than the pass (ie Michigan in a rainy/windy game). 

If this weather holds true, this game is probably in the low 20's/high teens in scoring. 

 

Edit* The 80 yard run was selling out for the pass. The other run was a Barry Sanders type effort, which I am not sure Karan Higdon or Evans can do

Bodogblog

October 16th, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^

You can't just dismiss big plays like this.  If you have a defense which is selling out that completely for a pass (and I didn't see the game, so don't know), you're gambling.  So if a more conservative defense would have allowed only 20 yards on that play, it would have allowed perhaps more on the other plays.  It would average out to the same. 

You can't dismiss an unsound defense that allowed huge plays as still a really good defense, because, you know, stopping big plays is a part of defense.  In many coaching circles that's the first order of defense. 

footballguy

October 16th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^

I am not. They gave up the plays and they count.

PSU brings a different level of explosiveness than Michigan. They have bigger "home run" threats, if you will. The main point is I don't see Michigan getting those home runs against MSU, especially if the weather holds true to the current forecast. 

BoCanHam15

October 16th, 2018 at 12:46 PM ^

Not sure where or how you attained that moniker.  But I can prove to you that you are in fact mostly pessimistic and positively wrong about PSU has bigger,”home run threats!”  I’ll allow you to explain your version of home run threats, first!  I can only think of two for PSU.  I can name four to five players for Michigan.  I’ll wait.

footballguy

October 16th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^

I'm talking about the ability to burn you, get huge plays, long touchdowns, etc. PSU seem to be smaller but a lot quicker than Michigan. I don't have a stopwatch on me when I watch the games, but it's just from my eye test watching these teams the past couple seasons. 

I did not go into depth on how many big plays they have, but PSU is averaging more yards in catches and run attempts. PSU also has 5 different receivers with 40 yard+ catches, with two having 90+ yard touchdowns (Michigan has 3 with 40+, with a long of 56). 

PSU has 4 different players with 50+ yard runs, and Michigan has 2 (with another 44 from McCaffrey). But I just don't see Patterson busting out a huge run against MSU, and I don't see McCaffrey even playing in this game (they account for two of the three 40+ yard runs, and McSorley is the only QB that accounts for a 50+ yarder)

This is strictly eye test and some base level stats, so prove me wrong if you can go more in depth.

Blarvey

October 16th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^

I am not sure why you were downvoted. Look at their opponents (ranking is YPG):

USU - 41st

ASU - 65th

CMU - 101st

Indiana - 93rd

NW - 129th

PSU - 12th

 

Most teams they played aren't good at running the ball and even the teams good at running the ball put up those numbers against Kent State and New Mexico State. I don't think they are bad against the run, just that they may not be as good as their stats say and I have seen their DL get pushed around quite a bit.

rc15

October 16th, 2018 at 11:27 AM ^

MSU rush defense allows 2.34 yrds/rush

UM rush offense gets 5.35 yrds/rush

Average = 3.8 yrds/rush

 

UM rush defense allows 3.07 yrds/rush

MSU rush offense gets 3.42 yrds/rush

Average = 3.25 yrds/rush

 

We should expect to have a pretty good advantage in the run game. Not to mention, restricting offenses to running usually means more punting, which we should net 10-15 yards per exchange.

yossarians tree

October 16th, 2018 at 3:15 PM ^

A natural turf field is going to help Sparty because they are accustomed to it, and because it will minimize Michigan's advantage in team speed. If it's wet this is all even more to their advantage.

If the ball is wet it can reduce the effectiveness of the passing game. I call this a wash, because while Michigan should be able to exploit their secondary, State's only chance to move the ball is through the air.

I hope that Warriner and Harbaugh are really putting the O-Line to the challenge this week. They need to win the line of scrimmage in this game and I believe they are playing with a lot of confidence right now. I think we're going to see a lot of Ben Mason too.

reshp1

October 16th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

This might actually favor us a bit? They threw 50 times against PSU because they don't have a running game. It papers over their defensive weaknesses if it's too windy to throw effectively, but I think our offense is better equipped to run on them than the other way around.

mGrowOld

October 16th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^

I think this favors us as well.   They cant run the ball for shit so this will make passing even more difficult for them.

As long as Harbaugh doesnt channel his inner Al Borges and attempt to trickerize them by drawing up a game plan where we throw the ball 40+ times while wearing god-ugly bumblebee alternative jerseys I think we're gonna be all right.

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 16th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^

That game plan was ridiculous because UM had a great rushing offense (I think two 1000 yard rushers that year and #4 in Rushing S&P+).  MSU had the #5 rushing S&P plus defense that year.  So passing, especially when you're QB is Denard, was crazy. 

This year, however, the rush offense is not as good (no offensive S&P breakdown like that yet, so don't have a national ranking, but it's probably in the 30's or something based on the four factors that go into it).  And the passing offense by an efficiency standard, is much better.  Pair that with MSUs run defense being the best in the nation, and their pass defense being significantly worse, the game plan should be to heavily favor the pass.  So the bad weather is significantly worse for us. 

For MSU it won't matter because they can't do much on offense in any kind of weather except trick plays and throw it up to Felton Davis and hope me makes a circus catch.  So a crappy game tilts it to MSU which such weather will usually do; it leads to more variance which can make it easier for the underdog to win.

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 16th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^

I've been debating this in my head, but I think it favors MSU.  This is the type of game they win.  An ugly slog against a good team.  These have been Dantonio's signature wins.  They depend on the pass more than UM, but I don't think either team is going to be able to throw consistently in this game.  If it comes down to a few chucks deep to turn the game...well Lewerke/Davis have show that can work for MSU far more consistently than anyone on UM.  Plus MSU will always have it's reserve of weird stuff just for UM.  Won't be much, but it will be enough to turn the tide in a low scoring, ugly affair.

FreddieMercuryHayes

October 16th, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^

I would say we lost because of 5 turnovers.  Sure 3 were INTs, but still lost two fumbles.  And guess what happens in bad weather?  More chance for TOs.  They could go in UMs favor, but since UM is the better team, I would rather have good weather and less variance and UM just win by being better.  More variance is more chance for a crappier MSU team to get those big swings in their favor.