Early Vegas line for OK State game is "pick-em"
Believe that spread will move a few points towards us, but I'd be throwing my kids tuition $$ at that line.
Life pro tip: Don't ever bet your kid's tuition money on your favorite team.
Don't EVER bet money based on a fellow blogger's "expert analysis" of the point spreads or expected trends thereof.
Michigan is spent or not
4 days rest will be plenty.
DUring our 2014 run, Beilein had an amazingly impressive resume when given 3 or more days to prepare for a team. Not sure if that still holds true, but I have faith that this coaching staff can dissect OSU and find advantages to exploit in 4 days.
Think we'll win but they're a team that can outgun us on a hot night.
That being said, we've shown now that we can play defense to keep us in a game when the offense is scuffling.
Still mad at Sparty for screwing us the fuck over.
I am in Vegas airport waiting for my flight and I would have bet a lot of money on that spread. But thanks to today's win, I have made back all the money I lost on blackjack tables and then some.
Michigan has way more fans, this will be 3 pts in UM's favor by friday.
with who will actual win.
A big fan advantage..If its sizeable can realllllly help a team in the tournament...momentum wise
He's talking about people who will bet. Michigan won't have an advantage in fans, I'd assume the Louisville fans will root for OSU, and they will be the large majority there.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:16 PM ^
has nothing to do with whether we will win, only on how much is being bet on one team as opposed to another. The oddmakers are not evaluating the relative strengths of the teams like Ken Pom, but setting the line to maximize their take (though the two track to a large degree).
March 12th, 2017 at 10:56 PM ^
Line movement have everything to do with where the betting action is. The book hopes to have even money on both sides so they can't lose so they move the spread accordingly to entice equal action. In their perfect world, the losers pay the winners and they just rake the juice.
March 13th, 2017 at 12:15 AM ^
I think that's what he said.
March 13th, 2017 at 11:12 AM ^
Yeah, I think what he wanted to say is that linemakers have also heard of fancystats and been using them long before Michael Lewis wrote Moneyball.
This is only somewhat true. Lines move more based off of how the sharps bet. The only time the public moves the bet is when it's a widely bet game like the super bowl or NFL playoff game. IMO the line movement in these first round games is mostly based on sharp movement
I can't tell why you'd be that confident. OK State has the best offense in the country per KenPom and is the 24th best team compared to our 21st. They could potentially torch our D and their coach is Stephen F Austin's coach from last year. OSU scares me
prepping us. That SFA offense was scary last year.
Think we pick and roll them into submission.
I took a look at their schedule and it doesn't look to me that they beat anyone. They got drilled by Carolina, lost to Maryland, lost to WVU, lost to Baylor, lost to ISU three times, lost to KU twice, and beat Arkansas (their best win?).
I don't see a really quality win there. They get a lot of points (~40 ppg) from a couple munchkin guards.
Meanwhile, UM has beaten PU (twice), Wisky (twice), MSU, and Minny just in the last month or so.
That's what she said!
Their 10 of 11 streak included that win along w/ nine other wins against lower ranked teams while the loss came at the hands of 3-seed Baylor.
Okla St lost its last three, but against Big 12 Tourney winner Iowa St twice and once against Kansas.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/team/_/id/197/oklahoma-stat…
Our path to the B1G Tourney title of Illinois, Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin was about the most difficult that could be constructed from this year's teams.
Unless, of course, we would have had to play Rutgers.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
At WVU is a very good win. Arky and Wichita are decent wins.
With the exceptions of getting drilled by UNC (one of the best in college hoops -- note, we got drilled by USCe) OK State has zero questionable losses. They are virtually in every game and I noticed quite a few 1, 2 or 3 point games.
They're going to make us play defense and be in this game to the wire. We may have to shoot 50% or better to pull out the W.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:19 PM ^
if not THE worst, for a major college program in the tournament. Ours is much better, and our offense, as we are currently playing, is comparable to theirs.
Michigan will eat them up and spit 'em out.
Shoulder chips and all.
Kinda surprising line as this will essentially be a home game for Michigan
March 12th, 2017 at 10:01 PM ^
I see Michigan -2 on the Yahoo Sports app.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:14 PM ^
Some sharps grabbed the early 3 and it now sits at -1.5 or -2 at most places. Vegas sees this as a toss up. I think the number moves up to 3 or more once the public hits it.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:26 PM ^
Does anyone know when Bovada usually opens up bets for the first round? There are quite a few bets I want to make before the line moves much.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:33 PM ^
They piled up serious offensive stats against cupcakes, but they are an extremely beatable team. They finished 9-9 in a not-that-great conference, and outside of a win over West Virginia haven't done squat against highly ranked teams.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:13 PM ^
A lot like Michigan, though, they have played much better at the end of the season than at the beginning. They started league play 0-6 and went 9-3 to close out the regular season.
March 12th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
The Big 12 was the #1 conference in KenPom this year. 6/10 teams made the tournament. Further, KenPom has OSU as having played the #1 overall schedule, including the #6th ranked offensive schedule, which has to play into those defensive numbers.
Furthermore, Oklahoma State is a terrible matchup for Michigan. Their #1-ranked offense consists not just of good three-point shooting, which is relatively unaffected by the opponent, but great offensive rebounding. They're sixth in the country with a 38% offensive rebound rate, and that drops only to 35.3% when you look at Big 12 games. Michigan, of course, surrenders a goodly number of offensive rebounds.
On defense? Sure, they're terrible, but they're worst at the one thing that Michigan does poorly -- they're 334th in the country at FTA/FGA. Michigan's offense does not particularly take advantage of foul-prone teams. They're #108 in the country -- above-average -- at 3PA/FGA. Now, that could be because their interior defense is so bad that teams don't bother shooting threes, but it could also be that closing out on the perimeter is a team strength. (Reassuringly, they do go up in conference play, from 34.3% to 37.7%). Anyway, that shows that they've struggled against teams that drive the basket -- not something Michigan does with regularity.
Anyway, Michigan certainly can win this game -- after this last week, I wouldn't pick against them for the rest of the year -- but it's definitely no gimme. KenPom has a 78-77 Michigan victory (51% probability) with only 64 possessions; basically, no defense by either team. That doesn't feel far off, despite the defensive improvement Michigan has shown over the past month.
To win this game, I think Michigan needs Irvin and MAAR to continue the drive-to-the-basket game of which they've recently shown flashes. They also need Derrick Walton to be crazy-good short-guy defensive rebound machine. :-) These are possible outcomes, but I certainly wouldn't wager the college fund on them. :-)
March 13th, 2017 at 12:50 AM ^
Ok st seems to rely a lot on transition opptys, they get a lot of turnovers (46th), and play a high paced game (64th). I need some stats gurus to see if that's the truth, but we generally are a very low turnover team, and will limit that part of their game as beilein teams have done in the past. They also depend a lot on free throws (78th) while we are one of the lowest fouling teams in the country (28th). I still worry about their torrid 3pt shooting and o-rebs, but these are two major avenues we should be able to close off. Just gotta box out and close out those perimeter rotations.
Oklahoma State only has one win against a high quality team all year. We have three just in our last three games. They finished their season on a 3 gaming LOSING streak. They're not exactly hot.
Why are you comparing their defense to our defense when defenses match up against offenses? We might end up with a ridiculously efficient game in this game.
March 12th, 2017 at 10:42 PM ^
"Believe that spread will move a few points towards us, but I'd be throwing my kids tuition $$ at that line."
Sounds like what a few people said about FSU and the Orange Bowl a couple months back.
March 13th, 2017 at 12:18 AM ^
Come on, man. I'm in a good mood! Don't harsh the mellow.