Early spread: Michigan 17.5 point favorites

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on September 25th, 2017 at 9:39 PM

Westgate Las Vegas Superbook currently has Michigan listed as 17.5 favorites over MSU.

http://detroitsportsnation.com/u-of-m-news/ddrysdale/look-michigan-vs-m…

Curious to see how much it fluctuates depending what MSU does against Iowa next weekend. Michigan hasn't covered against Sparty since 2006. Lets change that and blow them out under the lights .

Comments

FlexUM

September 26th, 2017 at 8:11 AM ^

Agreed...I'd love to have a "shitty" UM/MSU game. A game where UM goes up like 14-0 real quick and M's defense just doesn't allow anything by msu and we can generally "chill" most of the game. Frankly, I could use a non-nail biter in a big game for once. Aren't we due for one of those games that is a big rivalry game and UM just blows the doors off?

I remember watching UM/OSU during the 42-7 RR debacle and my osu friends were so chilled and relaxed during the game. I was jealous. I want that verse msu this year. 

M Ascending

September 26th, 2017 at 9:01 AM ^

17 1/2 points is absurd.  They are not being coached by Bobby Williams anymore. When's the last time we beat them by more than 17 points???

I think we will prevail on the strength of our defense forcing Lewerke into several mistakes; but I'm still not confident about our offense being able to put up big numbers against them.

M 27  Staee 16.

 

Indonacious

September 25th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^

I'd expect it to move more towards the 10 range...considering even the Purdue game was 10ish even accounting for this being home. I think msu is a better/more complete team than Purdue - as long as Iowa doesn't blow them out. As you mentioned, dantonio always covers against us it seems. I'd take the under though, whatever that settles in at.

enlightenedbum

September 25th, 2017 at 10:24 PM ^

Did you watch the game?  It wasn't fair from kickoff.  Sparty got 230 yards in garbage time after they were behind 35-10 to make the yardage look way better than the actual game went.  Before that they had 260 yards in three quarters which is decidedly mediocree, and Notre Dame is not exactly elite.

Dantonio's over prep for Michigan keeps it sort of close and some garbage time defeated with dignity points might get them a backdoor cover.  I don't even believe that though.

Michigan 45-10.

George Pickett

September 26th, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^

But when you're considering a spread, you have to account for conservative play late in the game by a clearly superior team.  This is basic gambling.  If this spread stands, you will see it drop drastically within the first two days.

stephenrjking

September 25th, 2017 at 10:38 PM ^

You're kind of both right. MSU piled on a lot of garbage time yards, but 260 after three quarters isn't the end of the world and they were neck and neck with ND for yardage for much of the game. LJ Scott's fumble at the goal line would have made it 21-14 and a much different football game. 

So yes, garbage time had an effect. But the game was more even on the field than the score indicated.

Blue in Paradise

September 25th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^

ND would not have run the same offense in the 2nd half if the game was close.  They would have kept slinging it around and would likely have run up more yards and points.  

In either case, the whole game changes so it is not possible to run that hypothetical.  You can only run hypotheticals that occur in the last few minutes of a game where it is clear what the impact of a play or call has on the game - example: JT properly being marked short last year or the Lions getting screwed by the refs yet again yesterday.

Real and Spectacular

September 26th, 2017 at 6:16 AM ^

I would say their offensive line was crappier last year than it is this year. Their qb is much more dangerous than OConnor was. And last year they ran for 217 yds against us. So yeah, I'd say it's possible again. We need to play a better defensive game this year. They had no answer for us on offense which was why the game was not in doubt after the first quarter, but it was not our best defensive effort against a bad offense. We forced them to punt one time. That needs to change this year.

Brimley

September 26th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^

Well, a lot.  Way back when I was in school, we beat Sparty by 18, 14, and 42 (heh, heh) and there's been more recent one-sidedness.  Unfortunately, a couple of those were beat downs BY Sparty during those years when we had coaches I don't want to think about it (17 and 24 point embarassments for RR and Hoke respectively).

Granted, ancient history has no bearing whatsoever on current teams, but you did ask the question.