Early Point Spread UM +5.5 vs Wisc

Submitted by Knappster on November 14th, 2010 at 8:51 PM

According to Vegas Insider, it ranges from UM +5.5 to UM +6.  I know it's a home game, but it seems a little low to me. 

Comments

JClay

November 14th, 2010 at 8:54 PM ^

I would take Wisconsin minus this figures sadly. :(

Then again, I'm a big proponent on betting against my team, because if they win, who cares about the cash; and if they lose, well, the requisite liquor is free.

Anonymosity

November 14th, 2010 at 10:21 PM ^

The problem with betting against Michigan in this case is that Michigan could lose AND the opponent not cover.  Say, a 3-point Wisconsin win, for instance.

This tactic really only works when your team is favored (in which case, you can even double dip and watch your team win a nailbiter, winning the bet in the process).

gremlin

November 14th, 2010 at 10:31 PM ^

?.  There is no problem with betting against Michigan in the case mentioned.  You're assuming he's going to take the points.  He can bet Wisconsin to win outright.  He may have to put up, say 300 to make 150, but there is no problem betting against Michigan in the case mentioned. 

 

So, why does this tactic only work when your team is favored???????????????

 

I've been cleaning up for a while now betting OSU against us in this manner.  I put up 500 to make 200 last year.  I'm more than willing to pay 500 for a Michigan win over OSU, and if they're going to beat us I'm going to get paid.

 

Anonymosity

November 15th, 2010 at 9:17 AM ^

Well, if you're just betting the money line, obviously you can hedge regardless of who is favored.

OP was talking about betting against the spread, though.  If he takes the -5.5 for Wisconsin and Wisconsin only wins by 3, then he loses his bet and Michigan loses the game.  Hedge failed.

NateVolk

November 14th, 2010 at 9:42 PM ^

Classic film. Probably only seen it 100 or so times.  The dichotomy of Swayz'e career is something.  The man who made the world a better place with like Red Dawn, Point Break and Road House, also did lower quality work in Ghost and Dirty Dancing. 

Black and Blue

November 14th, 2010 at 9:19 PM ^

I know Wisc just killed Indiana, but Purdue did hang with them for 3 quarters and lead at half.  Dont think any Vegas insider would make this point spread much higher, due to the inconsistencies of Wisc.

 

And of Michigan for that matter....

RSTJ

November 14th, 2010 at 10:36 PM ^

This is what vegas looks at.

Single game doesn't mean much, but the entire body of work is taken into consideration.

Michigan can score on anybody (even with 5 TO's, which won't occur every game, right?). Wisconsin has been up and down the entire season (as has michigan).  Just because wisconsin has fewer losses doesn't mean they'll show up to an away game everyone is fully convinced they'll win.

To me, betting trends are more important than where they start.  If they fall drastically like ND and USC last week, we're probably missing something (we are the emotional fan base after all).

jmblue

November 14th, 2010 at 9:35 PM ^

We're a 7-3 team and playing at home.  Why are so many people here acting like this game is completely unwinnable?  Wisconsin has been up and down this season, just like everyone else.  Yeah, they beat OSU and destroyed IU, but they also barely scraped by ASU, were beaten soundly by MSU, and struggled with Purdue for three quarters.  We may not win but I'll be surprised if we don't make a game of it.

TheAVA

November 14th, 2010 at 9:43 PM ^

Some of the difficulty against ASU has to be attributable to nightmare flashbacks caused by seeing Threet on the opposite sideline. If we take care of the ball and keep their backs in check, this could be interesting. 

pdxwolve

November 14th, 2010 at 11:14 PM ^

It's been so raw, so strange to have losing seasons, to drop games to Toledo, and to barely squeak by Indiana. It just feels different now. I don't feel particularly good about our chances against Wisky and Uof OS, despite our record and our potentially improving defense.

I don't feel entitled anymore as a Michigan football fan. Prior to 2008, I was disappointed when we dropped that first game of the year, thinking, "Oh well, no national championship. At least we can get to the Rose Bowl."

I remember thinking the Capital One Bowl and Gator Bowl were consolation prizes.

I remember believing that we had a top-5 team every year.

Now, it's almost like I'm waiting for someone to take two of our wins away. Don't get me wrong though; the last two years have been among the most exciting I can remember. I think it reminded me that your team doesn't win simply because it has on the winged helmets.

But it makes the wins more satisfying than ever, IMO.

Jivas

November 14th, 2010 at 9:39 PM ^

Has us at +7.5 at a neutral site, so +4.5 at home.  I'll be interested to see how the FEI shakes out, but I'd take Wisky -4.5, and I'm pretty sure I'd still take them at -5.5 without a whole lot of hesitation.

I hope I'm wrong.

sheepman

November 14th, 2010 at 9:45 PM ^

If UM wins - awesome. Better Bowl, beat a highly ranked B10 team.  People realize we are an upincoming team.

If UM loses - We got our 7 wins, what most of us hoped for and would be satisfied with, BUT most importantly - OSU doesn't get to the Rose Bowl, doesn't win the B10, annoying OSU fans can't brag about squat for a whole f-ing year.

Toss up...

sheepman

November 14th, 2010 at 10:00 PM ^

Perhaps. The "little brother" stuff may have something to do with my older brother - rabid OSU fan, OSU grad, total UM hater - brags constantly about OSU. Or maybe it has to do with living in Ohio and being baraged by OSU fans all the time. A little schaudenfreude doesn't make me a little brother, just someone tired of obnoxious people. 

And to be clear - I am hoping to death for a win, and always will. Just saying there is a little tiny upside if we can't pull it out.

nedved963

November 14th, 2010 at 10:09 PM ^

It's tough to consider yourself little brother when Michigan has been so historically dominant, including recent huge stretches like OSU has right now. I'm pretty sure It's fair game to wish ill on your rivals even when you're not playing them, and the fact is there IS an upside to losing even if it's not as big of an upside as winning. That's sort of what an upside is. If you want to ignore reality and think OSU winning the big ten every year has no bearing on Michigan that's your choice, but there's no need to get on peoples' case for not following your lead.

Wisconsin is damned if we do, OSU is damned if we don't. That's good news all around that's what that is. And if you think talking about it in this manner somehow jinxes the team, that's pretty silly. Those boyos work out and practice for decades and you think message board phantasms are gonna determine the outcome? Focusing on that stuff is... lame.

jmblue

November 14th, 2010 at 10:44 PM ^

I said absolutely nothing about "jinxing" the team.  What I said was that the notion that it's a "tossup" whether we should want to win or lose is incredibly Little Brother-ish, which it is.  Only a pathetic little brother would think, "Yes!  We lost and ruined their chances!"  Since when is our primary interest seeing OSU lose, and not our own team win? 

Besides, we have our chance to beat OSU next week.  How about we win out? 

burtcomma

November 14th, 2010 at 11:56 PM ^

Who cares about OSU and what happens to them?  We need victories period, and what they do to the rest of the Big Ten in terms of help or hurt their goals does not matter to me.

WUCK FOODY AND BUCK THE FADGERS!