Dr. Saturday previews Michigan's 2011 season
Hinton gives an overview (as part of his Big Ten preview week). He tabs 7-5 as the most likely finish for us (a third tier bowl game).
LINK: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Debriefing-…-?urn=ncaaf-wp4283
I'm surprised to see him consider SDSU a very likely win yet Minnesota only a likely win. Even if they have no WRs, the combination of Lindley's arm, Hillman's legs, and the fact that the whole OL returns means SDSU is probably going to still be pretty good. Minnesota, on the other hand, is a no good, very bad football team.
He tried. Can't blame him for that.
If wile can actually give us a kicking game, it should go a long way to bridging the gap between last years' scoring production and what we can expect will be some amount of downturn. Even the threat of a decent kicker should open up things a bit.
Anyone know if Wile will be doing Kickoffs as well. If so that could help the defense out as well since they won't be starting on the 40
This is a good review, given that he targets the same win total that Vegas does.
That being said, I think he's a little off. Best case of 9 wins? I think that should be 10, perhaps even 11 (MSU did it last year, why can't we do it this year?). Also, I think 8 wins is our most likely scenario, perhaps even 9.
Now that I think about it, he's way too pessimistic for me. Too many toss-ups as well.
and you're not biased at all... ;)
especially considering his single game analysis. It seems like he didn't really consider those predictions in his total record predictions. If we lost all the games he considers us a toss-up or likely loss then we'd be 5-7, which is entirely possible. But if we win all those he considers a toss-up or likely win, we'd win 10 or 11 games. It's unlikely but I agree with you that that's a plausible best case.
But I disagree that he's too pessimistic. I think he's probably too optimistic. The MSU is probably not a toss-up. They have to have the edge in that game at home. So I think his 7-5 is a more likely scenario than 8-4 (and that's what Vegas thinks about the odds too).
A lot of fans are looking at 7-5 as a floor because it was our record last year, but I don't know about that. We caught some breaks in tight games last year (e.g. Crist missing half the ND game against us, Forcier's pass nearly intercepted in OT against Illinois) that we may not again.
is our most likely scenario right now, barring a rash of injuries, and I think it's about 90% that we'll be between 7-5 and 9-3. Any more than 9 wins just doesn't seem realistic. I've seen the kind of defense you have to have to win 10 or 11 games against a schedule like ours, and we just don't have it, unless Mattison has a magic wand up his sleeve. If we go 8-4 with some actually impressive wins, no smackdown losses, and momentum going into 2012, that would be a huge improvement over last year.
I am consistently baffled by the guff that Doc Sat gets on his own site and in some other corners of the net. As his work here domonstrates, Hinton's work is in the elite company of our own crew at Mgoblog, Chris at SmartFootball, and the maniacs at EDSBS for best general college ball writing on the net.
You don't have to pass an IQ test to use the internet (unfortunately)
It was a pretty fair writeup and I don't disagree with any of his game ratings apart from flipping SDSU and Minnesota. But a 6-6 worst case and 9-3 best case is an awfully narrow range if 6 of our games are tossups. I think that would be more consistent with 5-7 worst case, 8-4 most likely, 11-1 best case.
If the emergency coach and/or quarterback transfer in Columbus doesn't take, OSU's eight-year winning streak in the rivalry is in jeopardy ...Their winning streak stand at seven.
That's true. However, I personally still have far too many painful memories of the 8th year, despite the fifth of Jamesons coursing through my veins,
It has been eight years. Techinically seven games but duration of 8 years.
I think it's as much of a toss up as any of the other toss up games he gave us.
Look, I'm hoping for the best as well, but in my mind, our game against Nebraska is our most likely loss. Of course, we're yet to see how Nebraska's offense (and defense, but to a lesser extent) adjusts to the Big Ten, so things could change over the course of the season.
You've got some compelling arguments. In addition to that, I just read DocSat's Nebraska preview (http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/blog/dr_saturday/post/Debriefing-…) and he mentions that, while they have a solid defense, they're offense (especially the passing game) struggled at times. Our prospects are definitely better than I officially thought.
That raises an interesting question: which is the best team on our schedule? I think it's tough to say. Maybe OSU if they get everything straightened out, maybe ND, maybe even MSU. Nebraska on paper looks best to me, though, yet they could have issues.
I don't see an elite, unbeatable team there. Several with good potential and likely to be better than Mich, but it's hard to say.
I think he's about right on.
A lot of it depends on if we can take care of the ball, it's no coincidence that in the first few games of the season (when we had one of the best turnover margins in the nation) we were doing really well. Once we faced better teams our ability to take care of the ball completely fell apart and our t/o margin took a nosedive!
At the risk of sounding a bit pessimistic, we have a coach in his first year, a new offensive system (and players primarily recruited for a completely different system), and return 9 starters from a defense that finished around 110th in FBS in nearly every FBS statistic. The euphoria from the recruiting trail may make me want to believe Michigan is going to make it to the B1G championship game, but logic tells me otherwise. My expectations are set on 5-7 being worst-case scenario, 7-5 seeming about right, and our best case would be 9-3.
Of course, I love being surprised [for the better, of course]