Diary ideas?

Submitted by The Mathlete on April 23rd, 2010 at 1:10 PM

I am currently trying to survive Friday at work and am looking for ideas for future diaries. If I can produce enough quality ideas, I am going to try and get a diary a week throughout the offseason. I have one queued up for next week on how likely a second consecutive big jump in our offensive production will be next year. If anyone has any ideas or requests I am very open to putting my database to use.



April 23rd, 2010 at 1:18 PM ^

I've always wanted to figure out how important special teams really are by putting together a metric that is basically a +/- PPG based on

1) starting field position after kickoffs for and against
2) average efficacy of punts (taking into account that a punt from the opposition 34 *coughLLOYDcough* isn't going to go as far as one from your 20)
3) average efficacy of field goals, again taking distance into account.

The end result would just be a number that's points gained or lost per game normalized so that you have a hypothetically average number of punts, KOs, and FG attempts.

The Mathlete

April 23rd, 2010 at 2:04 PM ^

A special teams primer is now in the works. I am thinking of going into further depth in terms of how to truly account for special teams, both in the decision making (punting from the opp34) and the evaluation (punters shouldn't be penalized for punting from the opp34). Post will probably be a hybrid of how to appropriately evaluate and what those evaluations look like.


April 23rd, 2010 at 2:03 PM ^

Mathlete, I am sure whatever the ideas you end up having will end up as good material.

I'm trying to write a diary a week, since its been ages since I wrote one, during the off season. Was going to start this "routine" after the spring game. Hasnt worked out as well as I want. But, I'd like to conrtibute more to the site than what I've done recently.

I think we've really evolved the diary section into something of legit substance since Brian debuted the new feature. Hopefully we can keep it up as we've had some interesting user content for a while now


April 23rd, 2010 at 2:06 PM ^

This came to me while watching the draft last night, and reading the article someone posted about the busts Millen picked.

I was wondering if there was any correlation between Rivals/Scouts star value, school attended, coaching staff, offense, and bust rate.

I know there have been a million diaries about star ranking and draft status/all-American status ... so that might be a start.

Basically, my thought was, if there a better likelihood a lower rated player makes it in the NFL given a particular coach/system/school...? Conversely, are there coaches who show a consistent pattern of ineffectively nurturing high-level talent, or coaches who's high performers in the NCAA tend to bust more frequently in the NFL.

Granted, there are a ton of variables, but I would LOVE to sit and read something like that if I were bored at work/school.

Six Zero

April 23rd, 2010 at 2:29 PM ^

on potential finances that the swing-and-miss early enrollees have potentially missed out on in the NFL draft?

Where would Shazor project as a safety if he were to play another solid year of Big Ten football, and what same position players and/or draft rounds would they be comparable to. Finally, what salary would they receive according to draft rank and inflated/deflated monetary value by year?

If put together well, with favorable results, this post could literally became part of a star player's argument to go one way or the other.

And yes, Donovan... this is all your fault.


April 23rd, 2010 at 4:12 PM ^

but I'm curious as to the optimal use of scholarships by postition. NCCA '10 got me thinking about this. Every year I would recruit so many players and many would get cut or never see the field as a result of the depth in front of them.
For example I would imagine you would ideally take a QB every year, so at worst you would be starting a junior. Obviously, the game has less opportunity for flameouts and the development is fairly linear. In real life, its nice to make room for the freshman 5* that comes in and can hold the spot for 3 or 4 years.

Mostly this is just spitballing and I'm sure you or some other intelligent mgouser can articulate it better than me. Good luck.


April 23rd, 2010 at 4:59 PM ^

I've been wondering for awhile if high school players are ranked higher because of the higher competition in certain states than say a really talented player from New York, New Jersey, or Massachusetts.

I've wanted to do something for a while that would compare the number of NFL players from each state to the number highly ranked players coming out from each state and see if there is a statistically significant bias coming out of high school that would skew the rankings. Problem is that my statistical abilities are pretty weak as is my html.

The findings would be pretty cool because we could theoretically modify the rivals/scout rankings of a player based on what their ranking is and what state they are from. For example a 5.7 rated player from Wisconsin we would know to add (and again this is a completely theoretical outcome) .2 to and say a 6.1 rated player from Texas we would subtract .1 from their ranking based on past success of players from that state with a certain ranking.

This would be a really interesting diary and I'm willing to bet that players from certain parts or the country are either scouted better or given the benefit of the doubt based on competition and thus end up with higher rankings than players that from states that aren't traditional hotbeds for talent.