Devastating article on UM football

Submitted by massblue on December 29th, 2013 at 9:38 AM

"Never at any point in 2013 did Michigan look fully prepared to do all the little things necessary to win football games. Never at any point did Michigan appear to be fundamentally sound. Never at any point did the team's locker room leadership take charge of the club and put an end to a miserable 1-5 close to the year."

 

I hope powers to be are reading this.

 

Here is the link

Comments

Lac55

December 29th, 2013 at 10:00 AM ^

Not only did we look unprepared but I just didn't see the fight and grit you expect to see out of a young hungry team. We dont adjust to anything the other team is doing during the game or after the half.

I hope last night finally put all the Gmatt apologist to bed. The defense has been just as clueless and pathetic as the offense. Something is seriously wrong with this team and its not youth.

BlueInDallas

December 29th, 2013 at 1:40 PM ^

I can't believe you are actually trying to defend Mattison this morning.  Lockett dropped a sure fire TD in the second half.  The adjustment would have been to double cover him after he burned us the first few times, not leave him alone on a deep ball yet again.  KSU's walk-on kicker missed a makeable FG in the second half.  What adjustment did Mattison make to force that miss? And, they fumbled inside Michigan's 40 yard line in the second half after gashing our defense on yet another run play up the middle.  Not to mention that Snyder had clearly called off the dogs with a large lead and a classier attitude than most college coaches these days.  Heck, they could have easily tacked on more points at the end of the half if they were so inclined. 

Michigan forced exactly one punt the entire game.  Don't talk to me about defensive adjustments.   

Wendyk5

December 29th, 2013 at 10:00 AM ^

I've never been a fan of Nick Baumgardner (for starters, my 10 year old spends more time on grammar) but that quote rings true to me. If I look back on all the games this year, there were only a few with confident, consistent football. Other than that, there was a lot of struggling. A lot of scrambling at the end of games. Why go on? We all saw the same games. We sat there last night, watching the game, and my husband would call K-State's plays ("they're going to throw to Lockett" was one he repeated many times) yet our secondary wasn't prepared. Why, my husband asked, do I know this and they don't? Why no adjustments? It's the same arguments from game 6 on, no need to repeat here. But I can't disagree with the gist of the article. 

BoWoody

December 29th, 2013 at 10:41 AM ^

Even spilemen said, he noticed that the left tackle stands gives away the play whether run or pass, and I started looking at the left tackle and he was 100% correct.  This is analyst on ESPN, but our highly paid staff couldn't pick up on this and inform our players to look at that as a key. I am amazed, that this staff doesn't even break down film.  That should have been a point of emphasis.

M2GoBlue

December 29th, 2013 at 11:26 AM ^

Exactly. That's called execution. Hoke and Co. catch a lot of flack for their 'execution' meme but most of the time they are correct. There is so much film on every major team in America that their aren't really any secrets out their. The top teams execute week in, week out because they are out in a position to succeed. I am not sure you can say that about this staff.

tybert

December 29th, 2013 at 10:04 AM ^

didn't look like they had been coached at all. Cam Gordon blows contain on a 3rd down scramble. Frank Clark leaves an open gap. Desmond Morgan doesn't cover the FB and give up a huge play. Countess and Taylor are 2-yr starters and were juked badly by Lockett. These guys didn't come prepared. Mattison has proven himself in the past and last two years, so WTF happened with those guys last night?

On offense, the only cure is coaching changes.

Looking forward to 2014. It can't be worse than the plague we suffered this year.

JT4104

December 29th, 2013 at 10:05 AM ^

Honest question about Hoke.....been stated numerous times he is hands off with the offense.....fine whatever.

However, he has also stated numerous times he is a DL guy and he spends a lot of his time there and with that said my question is....Why has there been zero improvement from that group this year when the HC is a self professed DL guy himself. 

If our HC can't get his preferred position group up to snuff why would anyone think he could bring a team together in that same breath?

death by trident

December 29th, 2013 at 12:09 PM ^

Michigan averaged 5.5 tackles for loss per game.  Michigan State averaged 6.2.  Alabama averaged 5.2.

Michigan recorded 25 sacks on the season for an average of 1.9 per game.  Michigan State recorded 31 sacks for an average of 2.3 per game.  Alabama recorded 18 sacks for an average of 1.5 per game.

Also Michigan finished 28th on the season in Rush Defense for yards allowed.  We can all probably agree that Alabama and Michigan State have elite defenses, no?

Where this defense got torched was in the pass game - #61 in YPG allowed and 12.28 YPC average is pretty bad.  Scoring defense was also a dismal #64 giving up 26.5 PPG.

death by trident

December 29th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^

Rather than some cherry picked stats - these tell the tale of what we already knew from watching the season.

  RANK  
3RD DOWN CONV % 71 0.394
4TH DOWN CONV % 46 0.583
COMP % 58 0.597
FEWEST PENALTIES PER GAME 9 4.000
FEWEST PENALTY YARDS 10 34.1
FIRST DOWN OFFENSE 74 0.251
PASS SACKS ALLOWED 106 2.920
PASSES INTERCEPTED 63 12.0
PASSING OFFENSE YPG 43 252.1
PASSING YARDS PER COMPLETION 14 14.2
RED ZONE OFFENSE 49 0.849
RUSHING OFFENSE 100 130.8
SCORING OFFENSE 36 33.8
TACKLES FOR LOSS ALLOWED 123 9.1
PASSING EFFICIENCY 35 143.5
TIME OF POSSESION 28 31.0
TOTAL OFFENSE 83 382.800

 

death by trident

December 29th, 2013 at 1:45 PM ^

  RANK  
3RD DOWN CONV % 52 0.383
4TH DOWN CONV % 24 0.400
FIRST DOWN DEFENSE 28 0.234
PASSES INTERCEPTED 17 17.0
PASSING YARDS ALLOWED 61 228.0
RED ZONE DEFENSE 88 0.854
RUSHING DEFENSE 28 139.4
SCORING DEFENSE 64 26.500
PASS SACKS 69 1.920
PASSING EFFICIENCY 33 119.170
TACKLES FOR LOSS 85 5.500
TOTAL DEFENSE 37 367.4
TURNOVER MARGIN 34 5.0

It turns out that my selection of Alabama and Michigan State for those two stats (TFL and Sacks) was a horrible choice.  They are both equally bad at the two.  So we aren't good by relation to those two programs.  Stat fail....

death by trident

December 29th, 2013 at 2:07 PM ^

OVERALL FEI

29 0.122
OFFENSIVE FEI 35 0.241
DEFENSIVE FEI 27 -0.308
F/+ 32 13.9%
OFFENSIVE F/+ 35 6.8%
DEFENSIVE F/+ 31 6.8%
S&P+ 40 219.8

From the website -

The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rateanalysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

Offensive and Defensive S&P+; F/+ Rankings

Success Rate: A common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not. The terms of success in college football: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down.

EqPts Per Play (PPP): An explosiveness measure derived from determining the point value of every yard line (based on the expected number of points an offense could expect to score from that yard line) and, therefore, every play of a given game.

Drive Efficiency: As of February 2013, S&P+ also includes a drive-based aspect based on the field position a team creates and its average success at scoring the points expected based on that field position.

Opponent adjustments: Success Rate and PPP combine to form S&P, an OPS-like measure for football. Then each team's S&P output for a given category (Rushing/Passing on either Standard Downs or Passing Downs) is compared to the expected output based upon their opponents and their opponents' opponents. This is a schedule-based adjustment designed to reward tougher schedules and punish weaker ones.

 

death by trident

December 29th, 2013 at 11:33 AM ^

Here are the rushing numbers of our opponents this season -

  YDS ATT AVG
CMU 66 29 2.3
ND 96 19 5.1
AKR 107 30 3.6
UCONN 47 14 3.4
MINN 136 25 5.4
PSU 85 44 1.9
IU 162 33 4.9
MSU 142 39 3.6
NEB 128 43 3.0
NW 143 49 2.9
IOWA 168 44 3.8
OSU 393 46 8.5
KSU 149 36 4.1
TOTAL 1822 451 4.0
AVG 140 35  

Ohio State is the #3 rushing offense in the country in YPG FWIW with an average YPC of 7.03

ppudge

December 29th, 2013 at 10:07 AM ^

The last 9 seasons we have won 59% of our games.

Let's face it, we are not elite. Everything Bo built back up (after Sparty was dominant in the 60s) has been or is being destroyed. If not for Beilein's run to the championship game last year would there be any reason for hope? Kids in junior high right now know Michigan more as a good basketball school and a mediocre football program.

And it doesn't look like this will end soon.

Certainly not under the current regime.

IPFW_Wolverines

December 29th, 2013 at 1:41 PM ^

I suppose that if you are okay with averaging three losses a year he was your guy. His teams had 3 or more losses in 10 of the 13 seasons he coached Michigan. These were not like Michigan teams from the RR and Hoke eras either. Go back and look at the rosters on his teams and they were littered with NFL talent, usually starting in the top 10, if not top 5 to start a season.  Somehow though his teams still averaged three losses a season. That is what was so very frustrating about Carr.

maceo_blastin'

December 29th, 2013 at 12:05 PM ^

way better article than the nick rant. Kansas state was a team not playing for their individual nfl stock to rise but a committed team playing a coherent philosophy. michigan...well...kinda seemed like gardner was tickled they were getting dominated as per his pep talk with morris. but really, that apathy seemed to be running through many players last night. wasn't about winning...seemed like some guys felt like it was devin's team moreso than the coaching staff's. just my feeling, though.

spielman gets troll of the year award with that performance. if anyone watched the whole game he kept a solid pace (despite his inevitable weird, barely containable passionate outbursts about fluid running) and absolutely trashed the team by the fourth quarter, particularly lewan.

SalvatoreQuattro

December 29th, 2013 at 12:48 PM ^

from the team than it has showed. I have no issue with his criticism. Spielman played Michigan at it's peak. This Michigan program hasn't been at a peak since 2006.

 

This program is soft, undisciplined, and lazy. That is hard to say, but it is true. Marshmellow Michigan. 

clarkiefromcanada

December 29th, 2013 at 1:24 PM ^

In 2005, 2006, 2007 how many threads did we have to sit through with titles like "Michigan needs a new Carr" etc. with the exact same sentiments about softness, lack of discipline, crapping on Lloyd etc.

Not sure what the answer is here but I don't see the cavalry coming in terms of some magic coaching hire vs. another year to see if Hoke/Mattison/some offensive coordinator and their recruits working it out.

Magnus

December 29th, 2013 at 1:52 PM ^

Spielman takes little potshots at Michigan all the time, and then he'll say something like "Brady Hoke isn't going to stand for that." Then more potshots. He's an Ohio State Buckeye, and he broadcasts like one. I loved him as a Lion, but I would be happy if he never broadcasted another Michigan game.

Former_DC_Buck

December 30th, 2013 at 9:34 AM ^

But I've heard Chris call a lot of games and he will be critical (what you are calling potshots) of teams when he thinks they are doing something wrong, but he will also give praise when it is deserved.  And he will make the same kind of comments that he expects the staff to fix this kind of problem or he will be critical and say he can't figure out why they haven't done it.  He has made those kind of comments this year about the OSU defense. 

As someone else said, he expects more out of Michigan.  He grew up in the era of the Big Two, Little Eight and like many of us that did, he wants Michigan to be good because beating Michigan means more.  I know not all my Buckeye Brethren believe this and I know there are many on your side that would be happy if OSU never won another football game again, but there are many of us who would like to see two 11-0 teams meet in the last regular season game every year.  And Chris Spielman is in that group.