Det. News Football Picks....

Submitted by DamnYankee on September 3rd, 2009 at 8:18 AM

I think it is interesting that all of the News writers are picking Western and taking the points. I know that Woj has UM winning outright but not covering the spread.

I would be curious to here the opinion of some of the knowledgable experts (jamiemac, etc) on this. I will be the first to admit I am not a big gambler and don't follow the Vegas lines. In your view, is this an accurate line or not?


Wolverine In Exile

September 3rd, 2009 at 8:29 AM ^

I was already to lay points and take Michigan, being swept up in the emotion of defending Jerusalem, eh, I mean Ann Arbor, against the Jihad.

Now with a chance for the emotion to subside, my rational side says take Michigan to win, but not cover unless the line goes below 10. Michigan's going to score, but so is WMU. A better 'play' may be the over depending on the number. If it's under 55, I'd say bet the top. Unfortunately, I think we're going to see a return of Angry Michigan hating DB god again, but Western's D won't be able to stop our rushing attack, with or without Minor. Throw in a couple good play action pass TD's, and I think we're looking for a 30-pt+ day out of Big Blue.

Wolverine In Exile

September 3rd, 2009 at 8:32 AM ^

now that I look at the DetNews pick graphic, Jeebus, Nevada's really getting 14 1/2 against ND? They're a better team than a lot of ND's opponents this year, they run that funky Pistol offense, and I still think ND's got a lot of questions, Beano & Dr Lou not withstanding. Book me on Nevada to beat the spread.


September 3rd, 2009 at 8:35 AM ^

Vegas odds are set to balance off the wagers on both sides. Bookmakers want to even out (i.e. eliminate) the risk to themselves as much as possible, and they take a "spread" in the middle. So if you think the betting public knows what they are doing, the odds are even. But sometimes the public has an irrational favorite (frequently happens with the Super Bowl and might happen this year with Florida for the BCS), in which case the odds to do not necessarily mirror the true likelihood of outcomes.

FWIW, I would take Michigan and give the points.

matty blue

September 3rd, 2009 at 8:36 AM ^ that the lines are not, by definition, a prediction of who will win the game and by how much, but an attempt by oddsmakers to get as close to equal betting on both sides as possible. if the line was michigan minus eight, and people flocked to western, the line would go down until it evened out.

vegas doesn't make money on the losing bets - that goes to the winners...they make money on the vig.


September 3rd, 2009 at 8:46 AM ^

Everyone's projections are all based on our situation last year 1: two inexperienced and untalented QBs trying to run a system they aren't fit for and 2: a team of players running a completely different system. If Tate and Shoelace are as good as they looked in training camp and (here's the big if) if the Robinson D is a huge improvement from our Chinese fire-drill D of 08 then this team is going to shock ALOT of people. If these both pan out in our favor lookout. I'm seeing a dominating victory by our boys on Saturday. I'll be in row 1 sect 37 with my towel waving cheering every second of it. Go Blue