Denard at 5:1 odds for 2011 Heisman

Submitted by SwaggLikeUs on May 16th, 2011 at 7:51 PM

Saw this article in the DetNews that has DR tied for second at 5:1 behind the 3:1 favorite Andrew Luck out of Stanford, according to online betting service SBG Global.

DetNews: Michigan QB Denard Robinson has 5-1 odds on winning Heisman

Of course Sparty has already caught wind of this and has been poking fun at it using terms like "another September Heisman". That must be their way of dealing with the fact that their school has produced ZERO Heisman trophy winners

Comments

mmiicchhiiggaann

May 16th, 2011 at 7:54 PM ^

I saw this and I can't decide if I am suprised or not. I figured his production would be way down if he isn't running as much and if he does't dramatically improve throwing it could get ugly. But obviously the oddsmakers have faith in him.

Mr Mackey

May 16th, 2011 at 7:58 PM ^

It'll be hard to be out Luck if losing Harbaugh doesn't hurt him. 

But hey, who knows how the new offense will go. Denard could get on fire and do even better in the new offense, or he could fall in the statistics pretty dramatically, hurting his chances. I'll go with the former.

pasadenablue

May 16th, 2011 at 8:03 PM ^

also remember that betting lines aren't always indicative of the end result, but rather of betting patterns.  that fact michigan fans are (sometimes irrationally) rabid and fervent, and might bet disproportionately for Denard, could have very well pushed the line somewhat.

Zone Left

May 16th, 2011 at 9:22 PM ^

Yeah, these types of bets are really designed to just get people to put money down. I wonder what Cam Newton's odds were last season or Mark Ingram the year prior. It's so hard to predict the outcome of a popularity contest with so many options that a casino is virtually guaranteed to make money unless they did something ridiculous like give 1000 to 1 odds on Tim Tebow going into the FSU game during his Sophomore year.

BrownJuggernaut

May 17th, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^

Did a little googling, here's the top 10:

Odds to win the 2010 Heisman Trophy

Mark Ingram Running Back Alabama +350

Terrelle Pryor Quarterback Ohio State +550

Jack Locker Quarterback Washington +800

Ryan Mallett Quarterback Arkansas +1200

Noel Divine Running back West Virginia +1400

Jacory Harris Quarterback Miami +1400

Dion Lewis Running back Pittsburgh +1500

Case Keenum Quarterback houston +1500

John Clay Running back Wisconsin +1500

Evan Royster Running back +1500

FWIW, Tate was at +3500

EDIT: plain text editor is killing me on all fronts.

justingoblue

May 16th, 2011 at 8:04 PM ^

This looks like the same service that did the odds in my post about six weeks ago. Interesting they haven't changed. FWIW they also already have odds out for the MNC race. From the other post:

  1. Oklahoma (+350)
  2. Alabama (+500)
  3. Florida (+1200)
  4. Florida State (+1200)
  5. Boise State (+1200)

    Michigan is sitting at +8000, with MSU at +5000, ND at +2800 and OSU at +1300.

    umchicago

    May 16th, 2011 at 8:16 PM ^

    but your list is probably a better predictor for the heisman - ie. a player for one of those teams.  in order to win the heisman anymore, your team must be a mnc contendor; or at least a bcs bowl team.

    i don't think UM is there yet, so i think denard's chances are slim, no matter what kind of stats he puts up.

    justingoblue

    May 16th, 2011 at 8:23 PM ^

    If we look like we can win the division, I like Denards chances if he's playing lights-out. I think a BTCG appearance would be enough for him to win, unless there's another Cam Newton this season.

    MGoDC

    May 17th, 2011 at 2:39 PM ^

    They were 9-3, ranked #12, and didnt have the COB loss on their resume when the Heisman was awarded. Since they were a double-digit favorite I'm sure the committee penciled the team in as 10-3 with a top-10 finish after the bowls with the assumption that a double-digit SEC favorite would beat a Big Ten team that had lost to App State. Thankfully this was not the case, but you can certainly follow this logic.

    Bb011

    May 16th, 2011 at 8:05 PM ^

    Even as a diehard michigan fan I would have a hard time betting on him this early while in a totally new system. If RR was still here, yes totally. But I feel there are going to be some growing pains while getting acclimated to the new system. 

    maizenbluenc

    May 17th, 2011 at 9:48 AM ^

    I agree. I think next year is Denard's year. This will be yet another growing year. The NFL is so gushy on Luck, as long as the coaching transition works for Stanford as a team ... clear front runner.

    Next year, as a Senior with one year in system, and a Dallas game against Alabama ...

    BrownJuggernaut

    May 16th, 2011 at 8:31 PM ^

    He's looking mighty good at 12-1. I tweeted this earlier, but in terms of pricing, he's the only one that seems like a good bet because of the odds you're given. All the other candidates that you would like are probably at slimmer odds like James, Denard, and Luck. Picking the Heisman preseason is such a crap shoot. I think Richardson, if healthy can be a top 3 contender for it, and at 12-1 odds, he's a very well priced.

    Of course, this is preseason, so you have no idea what happens. We could see someone emerge to be the runaway winner that isn't even on the radar.

    psychomatt

    May 16th, 2011 at 9:24 PM ^

    And you said it much better than I did.

    Clearly, Luck is the favorite, but even he doesn't deserve 3:1. Way too many things can happen (e.g., injuries, bad games) and Stanford lost a lot of talent plus their HC and DC. If Stanford struggles as a team, Luck's chances of winning will go down (see Tim Tebow in 2007).

    If I were betting, I wouldn't pick anything that is less than 10:1. Richardson looks the best to me at 12:1 followed by Blackmon at 10:1.

    MGoDC

    May 17th, 2011 at 2:44 PM ^

    Two things:

    1. 2006 Florida and 2008 Florida were the championship teams. In 2007 Tebow won the Heisman while playing for the worst Florida team he ever played for, so I'm not seeing your point about a struggling team making Luck's chances go down.

    2. Blackmon isn't a good pick. No WR has won the award in a ridiculously long time. It's been only QBs/RBs for over a decade. Blackmon is good but there have been many better WR that havent won it -- I wouldnt count on it this year.

    LSAClassOf2000

    May 16th, 2011 at 8:45 PM ^

    .....even though, according  to the buzz from the darkest domains of the Internet, we have to make it past May 21st. LOL.

    In all seriousness, if Michigan is in the hunt to win the  Big Ten (or at least have a great  record in conference) and he's playing like he did at least in the non-conference games last year against the IN-conference crowd this year, I think he's got a shot at it. 

    Scheißkerl

    May 16th, 2011 at 11:48 PM ^

    Completely oblivious over there. They keep mentioning how Denard throws too many interceptions, when Kirk Cousins only had one less interception than Denard, and 300 more passing yards all season.

    Tater

    May 17th, 2011 at 12:36 AM ^

    Unless what we see in September is a lot different than what we saw during spring practice, Denard isn't sniffing the Heisman with this offense.  I know the litany: he's learning a new offense, he'll make giant strides during the summer, he won't get injured, the whole team will  be a lot better by the fall, etc.  

     That's great, and Michigan might even manage to win ten if a lot of stuff goes right.  But it is likely that they struggle in the beginning, when the first Heisman hype usually starts.  Then, when the team is finally used to the offense, the competition will get a lot tougher, and the improvement won't produce any gaudy stats.  

    There is a major upside to this, though.  If there is no Heisman hype, that is just one less distraction for a team that really doesn't need any.  I think they will win a decent amount of games, but will win quite a few of them "ugly."  Since the Heisman is a glorified beauty contest, ugly isn't going to cut it.

    Luckily, Denard will be the first to say that he doesn't give a shit about the Heisman, and that he cares about the team more.

    maizenbluenc

    May 17th, 2011 at 9:55 AM ^

    We way underestimated Denard between 2009 and 2010, and he worked hard and won outright the starting job while we all debated whether he should move to slot.

    Let see how he looks after the dust settles on say Sept. 10th.

    antidaily

    May 17th, 2011 at 9:41 AM ^

    I might take that bet. 

    Denard could easily run for 1000 yards this year and throw for 2500. The key will be if we can win enough games to get him to NY.

    BrownJuggernaut

    May 17th, 2011 at 10:28 AM ^

    While I think Denard has a shot, I think I'd short him right now. In the first couple weeks, we might get other guys emerge as top candidates while Denard gets priced better because of some early season struggles. I don't think he's worth it at 5-1 especially with the uncertainty surrounding the offense. You can definitely get better odds at some point in the season. 

    I do think Michigan can get the necessary wins to give Denard a shot.

    msoccer10

    May 17th, 2011 at 9:57 AM ^

    If Denard has good but not great stats he could still win the Heisman. He already has the name recognition and comes from a big brand name school. The key will be getting some big highlights in big games, like a sixty yard touchdown run against OSU and then having a good record like 10-3. That would put him in contention even if his numbers aren't what they were last year.

    Promote RichRod

    May 17th, 2011 at 10:27 AM ^

    to buy put options or short Denard's "stock?"  He is my favorite Wolverine of all time but he is NOT winning the Heisman (or even getting an invite to NY) in this offense this year.  I would like to make some free money.  Please advise.

    ChiefLB

    May 17th, 2011 at 10:34 AM ^

    The key to Denard's Heisman run will be (1) UM winning 9+ games and (2) performing well against ND, Nebraska, & OSU.  QBs are usually graded on their team's performance, and people already recognize Dennard's athletic skills.  I thought he should have been invited to last year's ceremony... if he gets invited this year, I like his odds as well as anybody else that may be seated next to him.