Degenerates Thursday: CFB Betting Thread Week 6

Submitted by SAMgO on October 8th, 2015 at 9:08 AM

It's been a banner couple weeks for me going undefeated two Saturdays in a row. 7-0 last week was an awesome bonus to the Michigan win. In addition to Cincy (Home Dog On a Thursday Night®), Purdue, Northwestern, and Alabama all easily covering as my picks on MGoBlog last week, I broke my personal rule of not betting on Michigan because the line was too juicy. Took Michigan -14.5 and under 43, again an easy cover on both. I also stole a pick from the We Are So Good at Football Podcast, which I'd highly reccommend to any Michigan fan interested in cfb betting, and grabbed San Jose State covering +20 at Auburn. Auburn isn't very good this year.

Given my past two weeks of unprecedented success, it sounds like it's about time to regress to the mean. The only way to do that is to bet on more college football games, so here's the picks I like this week:

Georgia -3 at Tennessee: Poor Butch Jones. After all the heartbreak and mismanaged clocks, he gets a pissed off Georgia team that clearly outclasses Tennessee in talent. The Vols fanbase has essentially turned against them at this point a la 2014 Michigan, and Georgia, right or wrong, probably feels like they're not quite out of playoff contention yet. They'll run it up at Rocky Top.

Utah -7.5 vs. Cal: Despite the national praise that the Fightin' Jared Goff's have received so far this year, they haven't actually looked particularly impressive in any of their five wins, eeking out their last two by under a score against UDub and Wazzu (who both are pretty bad). Speaking of Wazzu, if you haven't yet read about how Mike Leach keeps a Viking Axe in his bedroom for self defense, ya know, read about it. Anyways, at night in SLC the Utes roll here.

UNDER 54.5 Indiana at Penn State: Penn State got outgained in a 20-14 win over Army last week. Army. Indiana doesn't know who their QB or RB will be and they're due for a letdown game in a sleepy noon kick on ESPN2 with a weather forcast in the 50's. Just book the under here, they won't come close.

UNDER 44 Illinois at Iowa: You know one of these teams is probably going to end up in the single digits. Iowa is overrated in a brutally bad B1GW, and Illinois isn't going to be lighting up the scoreboard anytime soon. Again, do you really think a 30-20 game is even possible here? I don't, and once you're a TD under that the under hits here. This isn't looking like it'll be a pretty game.

That's what I'm taking this week unless Michigan gets bet down to under 7 because the advanced stats love us in this one.

Who ya got for week 6?

Comments

WichitanWolverine

October 8th, 2015 at 9:43 AM ^

I went 2-0 last weekend. Took NW for the easy money and then once I was playing with house money I took ND+2.5. Got pretty lucky there as they rallied to lose by 2.

I'm leaning toward Michigan and Utah this week. I think we'll come out hitting on all cylinders like we did against BYU. Really hoping the line gets down to -7 like you said.

sum1valiant

October 8th, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^

I'm somewhat in the same boat. feels like that game will go one three ways: UGA is all kinds of pissed and wins by 2+ TD'S, Tennessee finally finds a way to pull out a big game and wins outright, or Butch Jones throws another right hook at a player during halftime and UT spends the second half sending "come home we miss you" text messages to Phil Fulmer. I'm staying away from this one...unless I can get 25:1 odds on the punches thrown by coach line.

Jeff09

October 8th, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^

I love your Utah and Georgia plays, I'm playing both also (I got Utah -7 :-)). I also really like Florida -5.5 against Mizzou who I think is awful this year, Wisconsin +1.5 against Nebraska who I also think is awful (also Wisco outgained Iowa, they lost on bad turnovers), and Minnesota -3 against Purdue

sum1valiant

October 8th, 2015 at 10:41 AM ^

They also completely dismantled a very good Ole Miss team.  This game does feel like it may be a letdown game for UF having to go to MIzzou at night following two big wins, however I think UF has validated that they're a very solid team.  If they get upset, which very well may happen, I'd look at it more as a letdown than Florida being exposed as fraudulent.    

Jeff09

October 8th, 2015 at 12:16 PM ^

Florida just spanked Ole Miss. Also, Mizzou outgained Arkansas State 282-217 and mighty UCONN 270-233, both very close, ugly wins. Meanwhile Kentucky, who is also pretty bad this year, outgained Mizzou 368-339 and beat them. If you watch Missouri's offense you will see they are truly bad this year.

LSAClassOf2000

October 8th, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^

So, the line predictions for the two Big Ten games if you used Sagarin would be this

PSU-Indiana - (73.45-70.13)+2.71 = 6.03 in favor of Penn State

Iowa-Illinois - (82.74-74.66)+2.71 = 10.79 in favor of Iowa

The first one agrees with the predicted score of 30-24 for that game via Massey, but Massey then has Illinois as having only a 16% estimated win probability in this game, with a 31-17 predicted score. That sort of feels right for that one actually. Might just be me. 

jimboslice

October 8th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^

My Picks do what you will with the

Cal +7.5 

Mich-7.5

UCONN 

USC OVER 

Ball State +10

NFL 

CLE +6.5

WASH +7.5

CHI +9

DET +3

OAK +6

NE -9

Cinci -1 

Do with it what you will but thats Jimbos picks

 

Dustinlo

October 8th, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^

I've enjoyed reading this each week, but this is my first week throwing in my plays..FWIW 1. GT +7.5 2.UG/Tenn under 59.5 3. Washington St. +17 4. Miami FL +9

tpilews

October 8th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^

I'm liking Alabama -16.5 over Arkansas at home. 

I think Sparty steamrolls @ Rutgers (-14.5) even though msu is 0-5 ats this year.

I like:

Utah -7

Georgia -3 on the road

Toledo at home -15 over Kent State

I'm even leaning towards throwing some money at Baylor and Ole Miss giving big points (44 and 43, respectively). I normally stay away from large spreads like this

 

 

 

Year of Revenge II

October 8th, 2015 at 1:51 PM ^

Undedeated two weeks in a row is incredible, and 7-0 on one day is close to impossible.

I like your Georgia and Utah picks as well, especially the Georgia pick which i would play heavy if I was betting.  (Though I thought Alabama against Ole Miss was heavy play, and that did not work out too well.  Lol)

I am not a big fan of over/unders, but I think your reasoning in both of these is sound as well. Good luck!

 

SoDakforUM

October 8th, 2015 at 2:56 PM ^

How about the chances of Baylor covering the over/under in their game versus Kansas by themselves. Last check, the over/under was 76.5 and Kansas was going to play their 3rd string QB. I don't see how Baylor wouldn't cover the spread of 45, but also get awfully close to covering the over by themselves.

AAK15

October 8th, 2015 at 4:33 PM ^

Alllllll dogs this week for me:

SMU +25.5: They can score and Houston isn't that dominant to deserve this line.

K State +10: Traditional ATS safe pick, at home, TCU struggles against lesser opponents.

Navy +14.5: Navy is very good this year, and always plays ND super tough.

Indiana +8: Penn State is garbage. Indiana took OSU down to the wire, and plays B1G teams very close

OK State +7: WVU's QB is garbage, and OSU's D-Line is arguably better than Oklahoma's. WVU no quality wins thus far either, I don't see them doing it any time soon after watching last week's pathetic showing vs Oklahoma.

Maryland +33: They held us to a super low score until the 2nd half and still was a low-scoring affair relatively (don't blame that on the weather). OSU has yet to prove they can put away lesser opponents, and I keep laughing at them. 

blockm97

October 9th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

TX +16.5 Oklahoma:  public is all over OU.  but its a huge rivalry game and tx has played some teams close before tcu.  plus, tx has just seem a similar offense and strong is on the ropes.  toss in ou's penchant for inconsisten play under Stoops and there are a lot of factors to grab a ton of points.