Degenerates Thursday: CFB Betting Thread Week 5

Submitted by SAMgO on October 1st, 2015 at 7:57 AM

This is the third week in a row I've made this thread so I figured it needed a name, hope you enjoy.

4-0 last week! Utah (if only I'd taken the money line), Navy, Ohio, and Indiana all covered for me. To MGrowOld, who suggested that after my 0-3 week three the best play would be to take the other side of all my bets, I believe the term is "Neener, Neener". Side note: I also went 6-0 in my NFL pick 'em office pool last week. Maybe if I had parlayed all 10 games I got right I wouldn't be in the office this morning, but such is life.

Picks I like this week:

Cincinatti +7 vs. Miami - Home dog on a Thursday night is always a good play in my book, especially if you can get the full TD spotted. Cincy has a high powered offense and, ya know, betting against Al Golden never seems like that bad of an idea. Bearcats to cover.

Purdue +21.5 at Michigan State - If Purdue scores 10 points they cover in this game. MSU is nursing some injuries and should win fairly easily, but I doubt they come into this one guns blazing and light up the scoreboard. Hate to ever put a couple bucks on Purdue, but I like them to cover in this game.

Northwestern -4 vs. Minnesota: Anyone else with me in thinking Minnesota would struggle to win the MAC this year? Leidner is a terrible QB and they still haven't found an answer to the loss of David Cobb at tailback. They will struggle mightily to score in Evanston. Also of note, Vegas books set the over/under on Minnesota's season win total at the start of the year at 5.5. They don't see the Gophers winning many Big Ten games and neither do I. Northwestern comfortably covers.

Alabama +2.5 at Georgia: Nick Saban hasn't lost two conference games in a row since his first season with the Crimson Tide in 2007, and how often are you going to get to take Alabama *with* the points? +2.5 isn't that attractive of a line because losing by a field goal still gets you nothing, but I like Alabama to win in a close one. I'm keeping the points as a small buffer because the money line only gets you +110 and I only bet like 5 or 10 bucks on these games. Rowl Tahd Pawl.

And before you ask, yes I know Oregon is only -7.5 at Colorado. No, I won't touch that game because 1. I want to be able to wholeheartedly cheer for the Buffs, and 2. I actually have no idea how good (or bad) Oregon is this season and their QB situation is a complete nightmare.

Who do you like this week?

Comments

pz

October 1st, 2015 at 8:09 AM ^

First time Bama's been an underdog since 2009. Have to take the points even if you don't love their team this year.

Have to agree with all 4 picks and rationale. I was actually looking at the exact same slate. Not much else of interest this weekend other than the Clemson - ND Pick 'em.

AZBlue

October 1st, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^

doesn't anyone think MSU might try to run up the score (if they can) given the general media rumblings that they might be too high at #2?
It seems to me that they REALLY need to stay there to have any chance of the playoff if/when they lose to OSU (assuming they somehow get past a rising M squad)

mGrowOld

October 1st, 2015 at 8:23 AM ^

All hail king SamGo

I did bet your opposite play with the exception of Utah so yeah, my week wasn't too great.

I'm in DC for a conference so I'll prolly sit this week out. I do, however, have Michigan over 7.5 wins for $500 so that's looking pretty good right now.

I bow to your greatness.

loosekanen

October 1st, 2015 at 8:32 AM ^

Love the Purdue pick. They've played a good half in every game they've played this year. They're the sneaky "not as bad as they have looked" team while MSU is the sneaky "not as good as they've looked" team. I think fair line there is like 17.

IU I don't like. Their defense is going to get scored on. A lot. And OSU can stop the run. Sudfeld is good but if they can't rip 5 yards per carry he's not that good. Really like OSU this weekend.

The Maizer

October 1st, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^

I was actually at the Purdue Bowling Green game last weekend and thought Purdue played pretty well. They got a little bit screwed by the refs on BGSU's game winning drive. Purdue's biggest struggles were an insane insistence on interior runs that were not there all day and a complete inability to defend the edge.

I don't see them beating MSU without some flukey stuff, but I can see them covering the spread.

Rabbit21

October 1st, 2015 at 8:55 AM ^

Hate to say it, but I'd take MSU and OSU this week.  OSU's defense is for real and the cure for bad QB play has always and forever been the IU defense.  

Purdue's offense lines up quite well into the strengths of MSU's defense and whatever else we may think of Connor Cook and co., Aaron Burbridge is for real and I doubt Purdue can do a thing about him playing piutch and catch with Cook all day.

Jeff09

October 1st, 2015 at 8:56 AM ^

Bama +2.5 feels like free money, you might want to actually play the money line on that one. Loss to ole miss notwithstanding I think they are the best team in the country

jjcoxsports

October 1st, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^

Update on your picks

Betting percentage tickets written on your picks if interested:

Cincinnati 32% vs Miami

Purdue 27% vs Mich St

Northwestern 69% vs Minn

Alabama 63% vs Georgia

This is not amount of money bet on a side, its simply number of tickets written on a team.

If you are interested in following me on twitter for more info like this, follow @jjcoxsports

#GOBLUE

Hemlock Philosopher

October 1st, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^

Last week I went 4-2 with Cinci, Cuse, WestVa and Tennessee covering and TCU and Washington failing to do so. This week:

1. Cinci +6.5. Always go with a home dog on a Thursday night. This is also Miami's first foray outside of the Miami area. I think the Canes have enough D to pull out a victory, but it's not going to be easy. 20-17 Miami.

2. Baylor -15.5 over Texas Tech in Jerry World. Baylor is like TCU except with a better offense and defense. If you do the FanDuel/Draft Kings thing, pick up Shock Linwood and one of the Baylor WRs. Boku points. 65-42 Baylor.

3. West Va +7 over Oklahoma. This is a sleepy game or OU with a 11:00am local kick off. OU wins on a late FG 34-31.

4. Indiana +21 over OSU. Indiana is able to score enough points to cover 21 at home. Confidence is huge for them right now, and if OSU breaks the will early, I can see this going to a buckeye blowout. OSU 33-17.

5. ND PK over Clemson. Notre Dame seems to have so mojo right now despite losing a ton of talent. That will catch up to them eventually, but not this week. Dabo seems pre-occupied with the Pope. ND has been great on road night games over the years. ND going away 38-17.

6. Mich -16 over MD. I am not wont to pick on my team as it tends to lead to disappointment even if we win by 2 TDs. But Maryland is gawd-awful and I have faith in our coaches’ game planning and keeping the team focused. Mich 35-6.

Bambi

October 1st, 2015 at 9:35 AM ^

I disagree with any Purdue picks. I think MSU rolls them. I know they're injured and CMU and WMU played them tough, but I think Purdue is worse than both those teams. They're that bad.

Purdue's only win is over Indiana State, an FCS team. They lost to Bowling Green at home, Marshall, and got wrecked by Virginia Tech, the same one that just lost to ECU. Playing at MSU, even with MSU being injured, there's no way I see them winning, or even covering. Cook will rip them to pieces and Purdue will not be able to score, their QBs are bad.

Newton Gimmick

October 1st, 2015 at 1:30 PM ^

And Bowling Green is better than CMU and WMU.  I think Purdue is somewhat improved this year, particularly on offense, and MSU has struggled with Purdue in the past 4 meetings; all four came down to the final quarter.  No guarantees of course, but I think Purdue is the safer bet.  (Also of note: this line started at 27, and now it's down to 21.5). 

A2MIKE

October 1st, 2015 at 10:36 AM ^

I disagree about Purdue holding MSU under 30, they have given up 41, 51, and 35 to FBS competition to some not so stellar offenses (Marshall, VT) and struggled against the only power 5 defense they faced.  Otherwise I agree with the picks above, and my bet for the week was laying $100 on Michigan to win the playoff at 150 to 1.

 

I like:

Iowa +7 @ Wisconsin - Iowa's offense isn't the normally anemic offense of the Ferentz era and Wisconsin's offense has struggled early this year.

MSU -21.5 v Purdue - Purdue O = not good, Purdue D = turrible

Bama +2.5 @ Georgia - see reasons above and Georgia always chokes in the big SEC games

NW -4.5 v Minny - This one has me a little weary, I would be more inclined to take the under in a single bet

OSU -21 @ Indiana - similar to the MSU game, Indiana is really bad on D and can easily be made one dimensional on offense.  Sneaky stat:  OSU is fielding a top 10 overall D.

Clemson (pick) v Notre Dame - inexperienced QB on the road in a hostile environment at night - this seems to easy

michfanisbacka…

October 1st, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^

Rest of the games

I'll take MSU because Purdue will likely give up a 40 burger.

I'll take NW with little confidence because I feel the game will be real low scoring.

Bama for all reasons previously listed.

I'm betting big on Oregon. Colorado is not good and I know Oregon was crushed, but this is an easy cover.

123blue

October 1st, 2015 at 11:41 AM ^

I'd take Purdue all day.  I think MSU is 0-4 against the line and they're now without their best Olineman.  Might be because I hate them, but I expect their mediocre play to continue this week.

Newton Gimmick

October 1st, 2015 at 2:27 PM ^

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2015-ratings.html

SJSU is ranked #82 and Auburn is ranked #85 overall.  Auburn minus 20.5?  I have a hard time seeing Auburn score 20 points right now with that QB play, and their defense is nothing special either. Jokes about coaching staff aside, SJSU is a middling Mountain West team -- about as good as Colorado St or Hawaii.  And who knows, maybe Borges is looking forward to scheming against Countess at corner.