Current 2019 NFL Mock Drafts = Good News?

Submitted by wildbackdunesman on November 2nd, 2018 at 6:05 PM

I want our players to make the NFL and get paid.  However, I wouldn't complain if some of them chose not to leave early for the draft and stick around for their final year.

Current Mock Drafts have ZERO Michigan players going in the first round.  If this holds up, will this encourage some of our highly talented juniors to stick around for their last year to try and improve their draft stock (and therefore contract money)?  My understanding is first rounders tend to get a much better contract than players in the 2nd or 3rd round.

CBS Mock Draft out today - 0 Wolverines in the 1st round.

Pro-Football Focus Mock raft out 4 days ago - 0 Wolverines in the 1st round. 

Some prognosticators don't even have Shea Patterson in the top 5 or even in the top 10 QBs for this NFL draft. (1, 2, 3).


At the start of the year I thought a lot of that highly talented junior class would declare for the draft early - now I am wondering if we keep more of them.


Of course, if we win out, we'll get more attention from NFL scouts as we display superior abilities...which would be great too!



Mr Miggle

November 2nd, 2018 at 6:34 PM ^

Agree about Gary. His stock will rise after the combine. I don't see that for Bush though. He should interview well, but he's not an athletic freak. There will be some faster LBs that are bigger too. He plays better than his measurables would suggest. He should be moving up the draft boards based on his film.


November 2nd, 2018 at 7:09 PM ^

Get used to this. A lot of scouting of Devin Bush for the draft will contain some nonsensical language that you can basically summarize as "I don't really want to say 'short'...but he's short"

Mr Miggle

November 2nd, 2018 at 8:47 PM ^

Bush is a great player, but I don't get why anyone thinks the combine is going to be a showcase for him. He hits hard and is decisive. He has great game speed. Those are hard to show in a combine.

He is short for his position. There will be some bigger LBs who will run faster, but don't play faster. Teams will see their potential, even though they didn't show up as much on film. 

I hope he does go in the first round. If he does, I expect it will be because of his play on the field, not by boosting his stock at the combine.


November 2nd, 2018 at 9:25 PM ^

I logged on to say exactly this.  He’s fast in terms of playing fast, not straight line speed. He’s short and not particularly big either. He will always be an “undersized” LB and he’s not close to as fast as, for example, Shazier. 

Kid’s an incredible player and, hopefully, a great pro.  But, he’s not going to help his stock dramatically at a combine. He could hurt his stock with slow times or an inability to demonstrate superior strength relative to other combine freaks.  


November 2nd, 2018 at 9:59 PM ^

I agree about the size issues, though if he goes to the outside LB spot it could be mitigated a bit.  He's also pretty fast; maybe not Shazier 4.36 fast, but certainly pretty good for NFL standards.  I also think that the days of guys like Mike Mamula getting a huge combine bump ate over; there is just so much tape on guys that most draft boards are pretty set before they show up in Indy, save for whatever medical or legal issues that might hurt a guy.


November 2nd, 2018 at 6:20 PM ^

Whether first rounders or not, a bunch of guys are going to have decisions to make because the NFL will gladly take them next year.

Some will go and it will be a more enjoyable experience for all without the "this guy should come back because.." negging that's common around this board. 

We should get used to some guys going pro early fairly often. This barely happened during RichRod/Hoke because the talent was down, but this is a normal thing to have happen to good football teams.

Also mock drafts are nonsense for like 4-5 more months. 


November 2nd, 2018 at 6:49 PM ^

I don't know if Hudson, Hill or Patterson have played well enough to consider leaving early. All would probably be drafted, but not till day 2 at best and all could raise their stock coming back for a senior year.

Patterson has been good and a god send compared to last year. He still has valid criticisms though including his inability to read a zone consistently and his overly conservative decision making. Baring a late season Rudock-ening I don't see him being drafted early enough to justify going.

Hudson hasn't been bad by any means, but he's hurt himself by getting ejected twice due to targeting which has limited his tape/exposure. He's been good but I don't know if he's played well enough this year to justify leaving early. He has NFL talent but another year could push him solidly into a day 2 prospect, whereas this year I don't know where he'd go/if he'd 100% be drafted.

Hill had the "rough" start to the season. It wasn't that bad, but he got beat against ND and then had penalties the first 3 weeks. He's been basically back to himself after that, but between Long and Watson playing out of their minds since, I don't know that he has enough momentum from this season to go pro.

I could be wrong about all three, but I would guess those three stay and the other three go pro.


November 2nd, 2018 at 7:02 PM ^

The end of the season has an effect on this. If Michigan surges late (that is, we win the games we hope we win, make the B1G title game, maybe the playoff) then our players are going to have a lot of room to show off, with a lot of people watching.

Gary's stock is artificially low right now because he's been gone for part of the season and has literally played hurt the rest of it. If he comes back healthy he's going to be a monster, and he'll be a monster in key games like that one at the end of November we want to win. He's going to dominate workouts. It would be very surprising if he's not a first rounder and he (and those he seeks counsel from) know it. 

It's harder to tell about some other guys. The DBs? Well, I thought they were sure things before the season started. If they're mid-round picks we might hang on to one of them. If we get into the playoff, they'll get tested, and things will change--either they'll look bad getting picked apart, and we get them back, or we surprisingly hold our own against some dominant passing offense and they're in high demand. I'm good with the latter scenario. Regarding Hudson, I don't think he should go--there's no position in the NFL that he is so well-suited that he can't be kept off of the field in the NFL. 

Patterson's story isn't finished yet. He's been adapting to the offense and he knows it well. If he starts pulling the trigger on some of these makeable throws and Michigan's passing offense shifts into high gear, two things will happen: We will start looking great, and so will Shea.

But for a QB, the calculus is different. If he's, say, a top five QB coming out of school, and there are five teams that need QBs, he'll get drafted in the top half of the first round. You may say, "But he's not really blowing us away, how is that possible?" Josh Allen got drafted high. Christian Ponder was a top 15 pick. Mitch Trubisky was drafted to be the future of the Bears. That's how the NFL works. 

If Shea surges and there are enough teams that need to draft a QB, he's gone whether he's "really" ready or not. Every time you see an NFL team that finds it doesn't have the answer at QB, that's an increase in the chances that Shea will go.

It doesn't help that a lot of the best QBs in college are a year away from going to the NFL. It's not a sure thing that he goes, but if he stays he is taking a pretty significant risk and he can't be blamed for wanting to avoid that.


November 2nd, 2018 at 8:02 PM ^

I’m not sure it’s even the injury thing with Gary. Both Bosa and Ed Oliver are not playing now and probably won’t the rest of the year. Yet I believe both will be top 5 picks. For whatever reason scouts might not be as high on Gary right now. Can that change between now and the combine? Sure but I do not think it’s a given once he’s healthy he will shoot up draft boards like a rocket.


November 2nd, 2018 at 8:39 PM ^

They aren’t as high on Gary because he barely played healthy this year and didn’t really get a chance to show it off. Plus most teams schemes around him so his counting stats were low for that reason, as well (remember the triple team he rode across the field!)  Assuming he’s healthy he will crush the combine and rocket up the board. 


November 2nd, 2018 at 9:34 PM ^

Shea is very different from any of those QB’s you mentioned. They are all physically gifted in ways that Shea is not. He’s short, has an average (NFL) arm at best and he’s not super fast. He’s the type of QB that needs a demonstrated track record of success and development. 

Like it or not, he’s short on measurable and production at this point. He’d benefit by coming back, assuming he has a good senior year. 


The argument about bout this year being a weak QB class is valid in my opinion.  


November 2nd, 2018 at 7:05 PM ^

Gary: 1st round
Bush: 2nd round
Winovich: 2nd round
Higdon: 3rd/4th round
Watson: Late round or UDFA

JBB, Perry, Kinnel, Mone, and maybe Furbush get camp invites.

Don't have a read on Hill/Long both how likely they are to leave or where they'd be picked. Gentry could be a mid-round pick if he left. Patterson is a giant wild card as it seems people are either absurdly high on him or don't have him on their radar yet.


November 2nd, 2018 at 7:42 PM ^

The problem with the mocks is they have not taken into account the videos that will come out, like Gary jumping  out of a 10 foot deep pool and dunking on a 10 foot hoop, or Shea throwing a ball thru the open windows of a speeding passenger train, or Bush benching 225 once for every tackle he makes on the season.  


November 2nd, 2018 at 8:11 PM ^

A lot of these current QB rankings are already way out of date.

My guess is that the top two QBs in the class will be Will Grier and Justin Herbert. No idea how people are evaluating Drew Lock and Ryan Finley right now, but they've also been popular choices. But some of these lists have guys like Nick Fitzgerald on there; the fact that he is on the list and Shea isn't tells us that the lists aren't worth that much.

Would Shea be a top five prospect if he came out? I think probably yes. He is: smart, accurate, has a good arm, and now has the bonus of some real practice in an offense with pro-caliber complexity. He is elusive and can move the ball, but that's not his game; in Harbaugh's offense he is passer who can break the pocket, not a running QB who also throws passes. 

I think he dusts guys like McSorley, Stidham, Browning (who got benched last week!) and Thorson. I haven't seen enough of Lock or Finley to say anything certain, but I would think he can pass them with a good offseason. 

We're talking top five type material here. I doubt he'll be better than that next year when guys like Tua Tagavailoa and Jake Fromm are hitting the market. 

So, what's the environment? Are there teams that might draft him?

Here are some teams that will almost certainly have a different guy starting at QB next year:

New York Giants
Tampa Bay

Here are teams that have questions at the position and could, with the right level of implosion, decide to make a change (in my opinion):


Here are teams that have quality, established starters that are old enough that a QB could be drafted either due to a retirement or to choose a successor:

New England
LA Chargers
New Orleans

And here are two teams run by madmen whose fingers constantly hover over the nuke-the-franchise button:


The thing about Shea playing for Harbaugh this year is that he really is learning the offense well (despite his hesitance to throw the ball occasionally) and it's an abridged but genuinely professional level of offense. And that hesitance also keeps his INT stats clean, which fortifies good impressions about his accuracy. 

He becomes a very attractive choice for a team like Jacksonville which will pick in the middle of the first round, has a great roster, and desperately needs a QB. Or a Cincinnati franchise that decides that AJ McCarron will never get it done but thinks it can go higher with a different guy.

Not as attractive as Will Grier or Justin Herbert, perhaps--that's a pair for the New York Giants to parse out--but attractive. And if a team wants him, it doesn't matter if some DL is actually a "better prospect" than him. They'll take him. 


November 2nd, 2018 at 8:35 PM ^

Gary has injury and production issues. NFL already knows he will test high. What they will scrutinize is his injuries and lack of numbers. 

Right now he is a late first at best. I could see Raiders with one of their three picks taking him. 


November 2nd, 2018 at 8:45 PM ^

 How impressive has Harbaugh and his staff been to be a Top 5 (if we beat PSU, too 4) team and have no first rounders. 

Conversely (and neg away), we would be better than Bama with even a few of their 5*s. That’s why recruiting is so important. 


November 2nd, 2018 at 9:12 PM ^

I would bet a lot of money that at least one wolverine will be drafted in the first round. Even if Rashan Gary doesn't play the rest of the season, his combine numbers will get him drafted in the first round. Also have a hard time believing Devin Bush won't go in the first round

4th phase

November 2nd, 2018 at 10:52 PM ^

McShay said during the Iowa game that he had Stanley as the #3 qb...shows how weak the class is and that Shea (any player really) can easily make a move into the 1st round with a couple good games


November 3rd, 2018 at 12:40 AM ^

My guess: Gary will be one of the best performers at the combine and it will boost him to mid-late 1st despite injury history and lower than desirable numbers. Bush has to be one of the fastest LBs this class, undersized but he goes late 1st. Early Patterson rumors were he intended to be 1 and done here and I believe that's what will happen, 3rd round. Between Long and Hill whoever gets the highest draft grade will go pro, 3rd round.