Crazy MBB Stat

Submitted by I Wrote a 4 Wo… on February 18th, 2015 at 10:56 AM

A statistical reason for hope, if you needed any, for basketball next season.

When Caris LeVert & Derrick Walton went down, Michigan was suddenly down 85.4% of their scoring from last season. Only Zak Irvin (15.4 minutes per game), Spike Albrecht (14.7 minutes per game), and Max Bielfeldt (4.7 minutes per game) even played meaningful minutes in 2013-2014.

Next year if LeVert comes back, Michigan will return 92.9% of their scoring from this year while adding Duncan Robinson. Consider the fact that DJ Wilson will be back, as well as the fact that he is one of 6 freshmen, and at least some of them will likely improve going into their sophomore seasons (as some of them have already shown growth) and this team will be downright dangerous next year.

I know hopes are already high for next season for most people but I was pretty surprised by numbers. Aaaaaaaand Harbaugh for football. 2015-2016 will be a good year. 

Go Blue!



February 18th, 2015 at 2:36 PM ^

has an NBA contract which is better than expected for a second rounder.  Stauskas and Glenn have better development opportunities practicing with NBA players every day, working with trainers, etc. than they would be in college with practice limitations -- and they're getting paid for it! 

If Caris is a lock for a first round gauranteed contract, he'd be crazy to stay.  The goal in college is to get a contract, then the rest is up to the player to produce. That's what Trey and THJr have done and Glenn and Stauskas will do if they have it in them.  Stauskas may lack the defensive ability to ever guard NBA players well enough to stay in the game and GRIII may never develop a shot, but they have a better chance of developing those skills by practicing for an NBA team which has nearly endless resources to invest in its assets than by playing a shorter season against worse competition with other demands on their time.

Also, GRIII and Mitch lost draft value by coming back for sophomore seasons. There are no gaurantees he'd even move up, even if he did want to forego the year of salary and development opportunity.


February 18th, 2015 at 11:13 AM ^

If Kam Chatman can resemble a basketball player, we will be in really good shape. I just can't believe the difference between him and a MAAR or Dawkins.

This year sucks but I am really looking forward to next year. How Beilein has been able to keep this team competitive in games is really impressive. Can you imagine what State would be like without Trice and Valentine? Woof.


February 18th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^

Yeah the difference between chatman and Dawkins/MAAR is pretty ridiculous. If you had told me dawkins or MAAR was a top 30 recruit I really wouldn't have questioned you. If you had said the same for chatman I would have never believed you. With that said, I'm not writing chatman off yet like a lot of fans.I think he still can improve and be a damn good basketball player for us.


February 18th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^

The thing we are missing with Chatman stinking the place up is that we have no one who can finish at the rim.  There isn't a whole lot of athleticism left without LeVert, Walton,and Chatman.  Irvin is trying, but he can't make a damn layup.  Dawkins is begining to blossom into that role but we can't honestly expect much more from him than we've seen so far.

This year may not end up like we hoped, but we'll thank it for the improvement next year to MAAR and Dawkins.


February 18th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^

The Chatman thing just mystifies me. I really thought he looked good on film and in Italy. I guess I'm in good company since Beilein saw him play a lot more than I did, and obviously JB thought highly of him - as did enough scouts to make him a top 30 recruit.

But to have him be THIS bad - I just don't get it.

MI fan in MT

February 18th, 2015 at 6:31 PM ^

a little while ago on a different thread that it looked like he was going through a pretty serious growth spurt. He hasn't played like he did in high school, and I agree that he has been a pretty serious bust this year, but if he has grown a couple inches, that changes the trajectory of his shots as well as changing his ability to get to the rim. I still have hopes that Camp Sanderson will turn him into a viable B1G starter.


February 18th, 2015 at 8:22 PM ^

Fair point, but even that would have to be combined with a rare and unfortunately vulnerable psyche to explain some of his mental errors on the court. At the beginning of the year, I thought he was doing somewhat well defensively, but even that has disappeared in a miasma of confusion, timidity, and hesitation.


February 18th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^

Their team at full strength isn't any good.  They have an inflated record.  No game at Ohio State.  Stil haven't played @ Wisconsin and @ Indiana (both guranteed losses) and @ Illinois which they will likely lose as well.  

They also avoid going a game @ Purdue, which would probably be another loss.

For a team that was on the bubble, they had a dream schedule.  Every time they lose it gets excused and then you get one off at home with Ohio State so you end up stealing a good win because you don't have to play that same team on the road.  




February 18th, 2015 at 1:17 PM ^

Michigan State is a top 30 team (see: Stanford, Sagarin, KenPom, BPI, Doktor, etc.). If anything their record is deflated; they have six losses by six points or less, and two of those losses were to top 10 teams. They were never "on the bubble." That's a pretty good (but not great) team that played one of their best games all season long. Pretty much everyone expected a ~10 point loss. 


February 18th, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^

At the game last night....Despite the pitiful shooting in the first half I came away REALLY impressed with Dawkins and M Rahkman on the offensive side.  This team just doesn't have the experience, size, or ability to match up well on defense.  That is what happens when SPike plays almost 40 minutes and Dakich is your back up PG.  The future is very bright with team.


February 18th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^

I don't think Spike ever expected to play this many minutes.    Beilein admitted as much.

But if the choice is between playing Spike 40 minutes and Dakich 0 minutes, I would take that every time.

Dakich provides nothing on the floor and is simply not a D1 player.  He doesn't shoot when wide open and it becomes 4 on 5.  

The fact that Dakich is playing any minutes just shows what a mess we are in.

Webber's Pimp

February 18th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^

My take on the state of MBB.

1. Beilein needs to recruit better at the post position. We are out matched physically in the front court and it has caught up to us against bigger teams nationally and in the B1G. We need front court depth. 

2. We need to start winning some of these recruiting wars for the national prospects. We cannot rely constantly on the "under the radar guys" as our primary players if we are to win B1G titles or challenge nationally.

3. Lagford, Battle, Murray & Winston will be the next recruiting test cases. If Beilein can land one or two of these guys I believe he can mold the team into another Final Four contender. 

3. If this team comes back intact and fully healthy for next season we will compete at a very high level. I suspect we will make noise in the B1G and possibly even nationally. I'd be nice if we could add another big as I'm not convinced DJ Wilson is a legit PF/C. 

5. Beilein is a hell of a coach. For my money the best coach in the land.


February 18th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

no reason to risk additional injury when you're a potential first rounder.

that being said, did anyone see that putback that dawkins missed towards garbage time last night? i mean that dude jumped so high that he had his whole arm above the rim and slammed it ferociously against the back of the rim.


February 18th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^

Amid the trials of this year is something that I always found interesting actually, at least until the last few games with the defense has begun to slide a little bit. Up until the game against Iowa, our defensive PPP had been averaging a smidge under 1.00 at 0.99, which really isn't bad at all except for the part about offensive PPP being 1.05 in the same period, so you know what simply has not been there consistently. Since the Iowa game, defensive PPP (I know, average of four games....grumble grumble...) is 1.27, but slightly improved on the other side at 1.06 PPP. 


February 18th, 2015 at 1:07 PM ^

And here I thought someone had charted the amount of times we drive under the basket and pass it out to the 3 point line...

/s (I realize Spike probably wouldn't a ton of success shooting layups against 7 footers)


February 18th, 2015 at 2:30 PM ^

As I calculated it last night, UM is currently playing without 7 of their top 8 players from last year's Elite 8 team. Stauskas, Robinson III, McGary, Morgan, Horford, Walton, and Levert.

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