I don't want to overreact to the Spring Game, of course, but with our first game still months away, I'm imagining what I might do if I were the coach of our football team, and specifically about the QB situation. Hell, it's the off-season.
Here is one interpretation of the current QB situation: We have an incumbent starter, Speight, who had a good but not great year last year, is a fine leader, works his ass off, but may be near his ceiling. And we have a younger kid, Peters, who probably has more natural talent and who is showing signs of rapid progress. It is possible that if we start Peters, then by the end of the season he will have surpassed Speight and could be on his way to being Andrew Luck 2.0. But there are no guarantees, and Peters could flame out. And if he flames out, we may have caused Speight to regress by shaking his confidence, leaving us worse off.
If I were the coach, I'd look to other examples of this situation around college football, going back at least ten years, and see how those played out. What similar situations could I study? In other words, can anyone think of other situations where either the incumbent kept the job while a promising recruit was kept on the bench for a few years, or where a solid incumbent was benched in favor of a less-skilled but higher-upside kid? And how did those situations work out?