Commit Watch Annnouncement Timeline

Submitted by alum96 on

Feel free to add a comment if you have any info on the guys without a clear time/date.  Here is the schedule as best as I can tell.  NSD is Wednesday.
 

Player Announce Pick Ballz
CB Williamson Mon 10:00 PM UF 10 ballz to UF since 1/28
CB Adams Tuesday? UM/Rutgers Not much impact from visit?
TE Clark NSD 8:30 UMish trending UM
WR Davis NSD 10:00 FL 5 ballz to UF since 1/23
LB Smith NSD 11:00 GA massive GA, little movement
TE/DE Wheatley NSD 3:15 UM nothing recent
CB Marshall NSD 4:00 USC All USC
       
WR Burnett Uhhh... WSU nothing recent
       
CB Arnette Not sure OSU 5 ballz to OSU since 1/29
RB Weber TBD if any UM/OSU 2 ballz to UM since 1/29
WR Jefferson TBD if any UM 8 ballz to UM since 1/28
RB Higdon TBD if any IA visited Sunday
FB Oliver TBD if any CMU/UM if other commits fall thru?
       
CB Bush - ? not sure if really in play
  • Not sure when Arnette will announce but most think he is now going to Columbus anyhow. 
  • Burnett ...I am lost on at this point. 
  • Not a subscriber to Scout and maybe Webb said something different this morning on radio but his tweets seem to indicate some progress was made with Jefferson but Adams was pretty much the same as when he got here - and he came here as a Rutgers commit. 
  • HIgdon was here yesterday but have not read an update from his HS coach. 
  • Oliver sounds like a guy you offer at FB if we can't fill the remaining 6 slots with your main targets. 
  • Bush doesn't seem like a real candidate but just throwing  him out there. 
  • There is also a punter apparently in play as a 5th year transfer but not sure if he will require a scholarship or not.

Please keep in mind this caveat with targets who already commited elsewhere when it comes to crystal ballz:  apparently if you are wrong on your original prediction you cannot change your pick after the fact to the school said player commited to.  Hence there is zero risk involved with changing the crystal ball pick (if they were wrong originally) to a new school.  So take crystal ballz predictions from committed targets with even more salt than normal.

 

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 9:20 AM ^

Just an opinion but with all face to face contact restricted today and tomorrow, I don't think any offers not to a kid from the state of Michigan OR has been on campus in the past will matter from here forward.  I don't see anyone outside of a MAC school committing to Michigan without ever setting foot on campus or even meeting our coaches face to face.

991GT3

February 2nd, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^

we must keep the process in context. 

The combined average of star rating for players on Seattle was 2.4 and for New England 2.3. Additionally, neither team had a five star player coming out of high school. Seattle had four 4 star players and NE had 3.

BlueKoj

February 2nd, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^

Recruiting = evaluating talent, potential and fit. Recruiting /= stars/rankings. Over large sets of data and over time, there is a correlation between stars/rankings and success. When comparing single players, or even a few players in a small class stars/rankings mean less.

Recruiting matters, but it's easy to see that Harbaugh can recruit and more importantly use/develop what he recruits.

814 East U

February 2nd, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^

Question about crystal ballz.  It was explained that for Van the UM trend may just be guys who got his Ole Miss pick wrong. Why aren't guys who got Weber's OSU pick wrong taking a shot in the dark then? Seems like it would always be advantageous to switch picks if you got it wrong. 

Is it possible there is actual substance to Van coming to M?

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^

I agree.  That is what I would do.  No downside to it.

Again I am not 100% sure if that theory is accurate - a reader posted it, in another thread and on the surface it sounds correct.   I was trying to find some confirmation on the 247 site but it may be a subscriber only info thing or something that is not stated anywhere on the site.  Maybe someone can tweet Lorenz and ask.

Actually Ace does crystal ballz and could give us the answer very easily.

And yes there is of course a chance he changes his mind - he has already flipped elsewhere.  The only caveat was crystal ballz with a committed recruit don't have the same impact (allegedly) that they do with an uncommited recruit.  If he was uncommitted and we saw 8 crystal ballz flip so quickly it would seem more useful of a tell.

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^

Yep far "too interesting" for my liking and glad it's almost over.

I imagine in the future our last week will be a lot more like what is happening in Columbus this year...95%+ of the class is set and you are trying to flip 1-2 kids in the closing week.  So I'd expect this to be the only year with this much uncertainty with days to go.

DonAZ

February 2nd, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^

You're to be applauded for your effort with this and other stuff you post!  Very nice work!

I think our best approach is to set our expectations to "average" and just let tomorrow happen.  I doubt a home-run day is in the works, nor a complete strike out.  Something in the middle ... then we turn our attention to spring ball!

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 10:17 AM ^

All the ballz are headed to UF but it seems some people outside the ballz world still think Mich has a real good chance here.  Just looked at his twitter feed and he has a bunch of Patriots and Tom Brady stuff up from yesterday so .. well it could be nothing but let's be optimistic.

He is probably the most enticing player (for me) outside of Iman Marshall on the board, esp since we need CBs.  If Williamson Arnette and Adams all say no we are sort of in a bad pickle down the road at this position.  If we strike out on them all, basically every 2016 CB we recruit we are going to be able to say "you are a starter in 2017".  I'd rather have some RS SOs/JRs out there rather than a bunch of true FR and RS FR/SO down the road.

LSA Superstar

February 2nd, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^

Webb really thinks we STILL have a shot with Weber.  He says he'll divulge the information that has caused him to hold this opinion on signing day once we know either way.

mexwolv

February 2nd, 2015 at 10:09 AM ^

From the list it seems that we only have a shot at 5 guys:

Adams, Clark, Wheatley, Weber, Jefferson.  It sucks to wait until Wednesday, hopefully some other names will come up.

Hope we get the first 3, they are key positions.  We are loaded at WR & RB right now, won't hurt as much to miss out on those 2.

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^

I am not as worried by RB because its a position you can plug in an elite recruit right away - didnt work out with Green but a guy like Nick Chubb went to Georgia and the minute their superstar went down he came in and was star.   So you can go grab a top notch 2016 guy and offer him a ton of time - after 2016 everyone graduates but Ty Isaac so playing time will be available which those high end talents want.

I don't want to do that for DTs, Ss however because those positions usually need some seasoning.  Pipkins and Mone played right away but there is a difference between plugging and being impactful. And Ss have to be able to diagnose so more experience is better - don't want to be throwing RS FR out there all over the place at S in 2 years.

CB is sort of in between - a top talent can play right away but you have to live with the mistakes.

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^

Thanks.  Yes he didnt sound bullish on the tweet.  A bit surprised on that one since he was supposedly a UM fan growing up.

Man the CB recruiting has really been tough unless we pull some surprises in the next 48 hrs.

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^

Just a guess but with the heavy emphasis on recruiting corners (and not safeties) and the continued recruiting of WRs I think Cole will be a S.

If you look ahead 2 years all our safeties graduate post 2016.  And if Peppers goes to the NFL early he will be gone too.  So our only S is Ty Kinnel at that point.  Yet we are not recruiting S, we are recruiting CBs this class.  Hence Cole seems slotted next to Kinnel down the road - maybe they let him fight it out at WR this year as he is not needed there now.  Or maybe they begin training him right away at S.

The other wildcard is Brandon Watson who came in as a CB but there were some reports they were trying him out at S last fall.  So maybe they eventually move him to S and hence more room for CBs.

You could in theory always move another CB to S which is the easier move than moving a S to CB; a lot of guys just are not cut out to be CBs, take certain physical attributes you can hide in a S.  I've actually been surprised they have not been after a second S in this class.

alum96

February 2nd, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^

If Peppers moves over to S I'd expect Peppers and Wilson to be the starters and Hill and Dymonte Thomas to be the primary backups.  Just based on playing time last year.  Hill was the guy they wanted to start in 2014 but injuries were an issue all year and he had some struggles as is expected with young safeties.  But he was the guy who had won the safety spot across from Wilson before he was announced as injured prior to game 1.

Reon Dawson - who knows with him.  He has not seen the light of day yet.  Would like to see him make the 2 deep somewhere this year to start projecting him in the 2016 team at some slot.  He and Jeremy Clark are sort of wildcards in terms of what - if any - impact they will have down the road.

Space Coyote

February 2nd, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^

I like Cole and his skillset much more at WR than I do on defense. He's much more of a project on defense.

If he did flip to defense, I like him more as a safety rather than a corner. Kinnel, who I prefer at Safety, may be a better fit at CB than Cole. Though with the emphasis on long CBs this late in recruiting from Harbaugh, maybe some of worries I have with Cole at CB could be mitigated.