Commit Watch Annnouncement Timeline
Feel free to add a comment if you have any info on the guys without a clear time/date. Here is the schedule as best as I can tell. NSD is Wednesday.
Player | Announce | Pick | Ballz |
CB Williamson | Mon 10:00 PM | UF | 10 ballz to UF since 1/28 |
CB Adams | Tuesday? | UM/Rutgers | Not much impact from visit? |
TE Clark | NSD 8:30 | UMish | trending UM |
WR Davis | NSD 10:00 | FL | 5 ballz to UF since 1/23 |
LB Smith | NSD 11:00 | GA | massive GA, little movement |
TE/DE Wheatley | NSD 3:15 | UM | nothing recent |
CB Marshall | NSD 4:00 | USC | All USC |
WR Burnett | Uhhh... | WSU | nothing recent |
CB Arnette | Not sure | OSU | 5 ballz to OSU since 1/29 |
RB Weber | TBD if any | UM/OSU | 2 ballz to UM since 1/29 |
WR Jefferson | TBD if any | UM | 8 ballz to UM since 1/28 |
RB Higdon | TBD if any | IA | visited Sunday |
FB Oliver | TBD if any | CMU/UM | if other commits fall thru? |
CB Bush | - | ? | not sure if really in play |
- Not sure when Arnette will announce but most think he is now going to Columbus anyhow.
- Burnett ...I am lost on at this point.
- Not a subscriber to Scout and maybe Webb said something different this morning on radio but his tweets seem to indicate some progress was made with Jefferson but Adams was pretty much the same as when he got here - and he came here as a Rutgers commit.
- HIgdon was here yesterday but have not read an update from his HS coach.
- Oliver sounds like a guy you offer at FB if we can't fill the remaining 6 slots with your main targets.
- Bush doesn't seem like a real candidate but just throwing him out there.
- There is also a punter apparently in play as a 5th year transfer but not sure if he will require a scholarship or not.
Please keep in mind this caveat with targets who already commited elsewhere when it comes to crystal ballz: apparently if you are wrong on your original prediction you cannot change your pick after the fact to the school said player commited to. Hence there is zero risk involved with changing the crystal ball pick (if they were wrong originally) to a new school. So take crystal ballz predictions from committed targets with even more salt than normal.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^
just tweeted another WR offer went out yesterday, it's premium information. Not sure the name.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:20 AM ^
Just an opinion but with all face to face contact restricted today and tomorrow, I don't think any offers not to a kid from the state of Michigan OR has been on campus in the past will matter from here forward. I don't see anyone outside of a MAC school committing to Michigan without ever setting foot on campus or even meeting our coaches face to face.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^
It's a state of Michigan kid like Grant Perry.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:36 AM ^
Yes that's the obvious name. Singletary follows him and obviously Malzone knows him.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:46 AM ^
with a similar ranking to Burnett, but that the player didn't want his name out yet. Perry is actually higher on Scout. I think that's a very good guess.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^
Seems like it is Perry, but I think I'd prefer Burnett. This team is desperately lacking speed and it seems like Burnett definitely has more.
February 2nd, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
we must keep the process in context.
The combined average of star rating for players on Seattle was 2.4 and for New England 2.3. Additionally, neither team had a five star player coming out of high school. Seattle had four 4 star players and NE had 3.
February 2nd, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^
Only problem is, this isn't the NFL and those that win big in college are normally good at recruiting. Its good to keep things in context, but it seems to matter in college.
February 2nd, 2015 at 12:17 PM ^
Recruiting = evaluating talent, potential and fit. Recruiting /= stars/rankings. Over large sets of data and over time, there is a correlation between stars/rankings and success. When comparing single players, or even a few players in a small class stars/rankings mean less.
Recruiting matters, but it's easy to see that Harbaugh can recruit and more importantly use/develop what he recruits.
February 2nd, 2015 at 12:13 PM ^
The three Michigan players on NE were all 4* players. A lot of the players predate the Rivals era, but there were other rating services back then.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^
Question about crystal ballz. It was explained that for Van the UM trend may just be guys who got his Ole Miss pick wrong. Why aren't guys who got Weber's OSU pick wrong taking a shot in the dark then? Seems like it would always be advantageous to switch picks if you got it wrong.
Is it possible there is actual substance to Van coming to M?
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
I agree. That is what I would do. No downside to it.
Again I am not 100% sure if that theory is accurate - a reader posted it, in another thread and on the surface it sounds correct. I was trying to find some confirmation on the 247 site but it may be a subscriber only info thing or something that is not stated anywhere on the site. Maybe someone can tweet Lorenz and ask.
Actually Ace does crystal ballz and could give us the answer very easily.
And yes there is of course a chance he changes his mind - he has already flipped elsewhere. The only caveat was crystal ballz with a committed recruit don't have the same impact (allegedly) that they do with an uncommited recruit. If he was uncommitted and we saw 8 crystal ballz flip so quickly it would seem more useful of a tell.
February 2nd, 2015 at 12:11 PM ^
The consequence would be their accuracy percentage dropping.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:30 AM ^
an interesting past couple of weeks. Highs and lows etc... Thanks for keeping all of this organized alum96, looking forward to NSD.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
Yep far "too interesting" for my liking and glad it's almost over.
I imagine in the future our last week will be a lot more like what is happening in Columbus this year...95%+ of the class is set and you are trying to flip 1-2 kids in the closing week. So I'd expect this to be the only year with this much uncertainty with days to go.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:37 AM ^
You're to be applauded for your effort with this and other stuff you post! Very nice work!
I think our best approach is to set our expectations to "average" and just let tomorrow happen. I doubt a home-run day is in the works, nor a complete strike out. Something in the middle ... then we turn our attention to spring ball!
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:38 AM ^
But not right now. I don't think he could transfer before the end of this semester. There will be a clearer picture of the available room by then.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^
The coach posted in another thread (not sure which one) that Higdon reaffirmed his commitment to Iowa. He's off the board.
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:51 AM ^
I do not see that post in the guy's history:
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
I'll see if I can find it. It may have been edited.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:10 AM ^
Ha, that's my fault. A guy with the username michiganman24 posted it at the end of the Burnett non commit thread. Said it was via Rivals twitter. I saw the michiganman and a 4 and didn't look close enough. Carry on with your lives.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^
It might be the tweet referenced here:
Per @BlairRIVALS, 2015 RB Karan Higdon reaffirmed his commitment to Iowa after Michigan visit this weekend.More here: http://t.co/4fI0Xy4tdI
— Tom Kakert (@HawkeyeReport) February 2, 2015
February 2nd, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
IMO,
Clark 80%, Wheatly 70%, Marshall 1% Weber 1% Williamson 5%.
We'll get a couple other guys though.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:11 AM ^
Hope you are right.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^
I think he'll wait until signing day and make a last minute switch.
February 2nd, 2015 at 1:35 PM ^
Biggie and weber are not 1% lol. That's just silly how low that is.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:00 AM ^
Sam had someone on a couple of days ago that said Michigan was the leader for Williamson.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:17 AM ^
All the ballz are headed to UF but it seems some people outside the ballz world still think Mich has a real good chance here. Just looked at his twitter feed and he has a bunch of Patriots and Tom Brady stuff up from yesterday so .. well it could be nothing but let's be optimistic.
He is probably the most enticing player (for me) outside of Iman Marshall on the board, esp since we need CBs. If Williamson Arnette and Adams all say no we are sort of in a bad pickle down the road at this position. If we strike out on them all, basically every 2016 CB we recruit we are going to be able to say "you are a starter in 2017". I'd rather have some RS SOs/JRs out there rather than a bunch of true FR and RS FR/SO down the road.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
Webb really thinks we STILL have a shot with Weber. He says he'll divulge the information that has caused him to hold this opinion on signing day once we know either way.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^
The Weber quotes today in the News closed the door IMO. Says he flat out told Harbaugh he is staying with OSU.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
I know I'll be negged for this, but I just don't see us really missing a superstar with weber.
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February 2nd, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
Brandon Singleton.... Cal commit? I don't think that is $$$ material tho so it could be someone different
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:16 AM ^
I'm not sure, but he's from Louisiana and hasn't visited Michigan at any point, AFAIK. It would be a bit of a surprise if he committed to moving that far away without having visited.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:09 AM ^
From the list it seems that we only have a shot at 5 guys:
Adams, Clark, Wheatley, Weber, Jefferson. It sucks to wait until Wednesday, hopefully some other names will come up.
Hope we get the first 3, they are key positions. We are loaded at WR & RB right now, won't hurt as much to miss out on those 2.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
I am not as worried by RB because its a position you can plug in an elite recruit right away - didnt work out with Green but a guy like Nick Chubb went to Georgia and the minute their superstar went down he came in and was star. So you can go grab a top notch 2016 guy and offer him a ton of time - after 2016 everyone graduates but Ty Isaac so playing time will be available which those high end talents want.
I don't want to do that for DTs, Ss however because those positions usually need some seasoning. Pipkins and Mone played right away but there is a difference between plugging and being impactful. And Ss have to be able to diagnose so more experience is better - don't want to be throwing RS FR out there all over the place at S in 2 years.
CB is sort of in between - a top talent can play right away but you have to live with the mistakes.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
Sam doesn't think Adams is coming to Michigan. He said this morning on the radio he is sticking with Rutgers.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
Thanks. Yes he didnt sound bullish on the tweet. A bit surprised on that one since he was supposedly a UM fan growing up.
Man the CB recruiting has really been tough unless we pull some surprises in the next 48 hrs.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:19 AM ^
If we don't pick up a corner do we make Brain Cole a corner or keep him at receiver? Come on Iman
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February 2nd, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
Just a guess but with the heavy emphasis on recruiting corners (and not safeties) and the continued recruiting of WRs I think Cole will be a S.
If you look ahead 2 years all our safeties graduate post 2016. And if Peppers goes to the NFL early he will be gone too. So our only S is Ty Kinnel at that point. Yet we are not recruiting S, we are recruiting CBs this class. Hence Cole seems slotted next to Kinnel down the road - maybe they let him fight it out at WR this year as he is not needed there now. Or maybe they begin training him right away at S.
The other wildcard is Brandon Watson who came in as a CB but there were some reports they were trying him out at S last fall. So maybe they eventually move him to S and hence more room for CBs.
You could in theory always move another CB to S which is the easier move than moving a S to CB; a lot of guys just are not cut out to be CBs, take certain physical attributes you can hide in a S. I've actually been surprised they have not been after a second S in this class.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:35 AM ^
Do you think either of them can play S? (Delano Hill - Reon Dawson)
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:45 AM ^
If Peppers moves over to S I'd expect Peppers and Wilson to be the starters and Hill and Dymonte Thomas to be the primary backups. Just based on playing time last year. Hill was the guy they wanted to start in 2014 but injuries were an issue all year and he had some struggles as is expected with young safeties. But he was the guy who had won the safety spot across from Wilson before he was announced as injured prior to game 1.
Reon Dawson - who knows with him. He has not seen the light of day yet. Would like to see him make the 2 deep somewhere this year to start projecting him in the 2016 team at some slot. He and Jeremy Clark are sort of wildcards in terms of what - if any - impact they will have down the road.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
Very insightful, looks like we have a lot of needs in the secondary and this class is starting to make me nervous.
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February 2nd, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
I like Cole and his skillset much more at WR than I do on defense. He's much more of a project on defense.
If he did flip to defense, I like him more as a safety rather than a corner. Kinnel, who I prefer at Safety, may be a better fit at CB than Cole. Though with the emphasis on long CBs this late in recruiting from Harbaugh, maybe some of worries I have with Cole at CB could be mitigated.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
I don't put much stock in ballz. But this is good info. Thanks for the heads up so I'll know when to reallllly start f5ing :)
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^
Jay Harbaugh just tweeted:
just overheard an #Amaizing phone call!
- Based on his previous tweets, I guess someone just committed.
February 2nd, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
If you want to be really optimistic, you could guess it to be Williamson as he announces today and maybe he is letting the staff now beforehand. Unlikely, but who knows...
February 2nd, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
FWIW, we're supposed to get some good news from one of our 2016 targets this week...
February 2nd, 2015 at 11:38 AM ^
I haven't even thought about that class yet. And I missed that this was happening. Will be a nice surprise if it happens
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February 2nd, 2015 at 2:00 PM ^
Any chance it is Rashan Gary? That would be amaizing!