College makes you slower- comparing HS vs NFL Combine 40 times

Submitted by iawolve on March 1st, 2013 at 11:50 AM

This article is great and adds more validation to how many "Fakes out of Five" that are associated to a HS 40 time. In all fairness, some of these guys were likely significantly bulked up based on needs of their position or simply filling out their frames with required mass to be a college player. However, the skill position players don't have that same excuse.…




March 1st, 2013 at 11:58 AM ^

This should be required reading for everyone who reads this blog.  I grew tired of all the people claiming that Derrick Green ran in the 4.3s because some recruiting website said so.

Ali G Bomaye

March 1st, 2013 at 12:21 PM ^

If Derrick Green runs a legit 4.5 at 220 lbs, I would be ecstatic.  That would give him a Speed Score (a metric developed by Football Outsiders) of 107.3, which compares favorably to some of the top NFL RB prospects.…

Basically, Speed Score is a measure of how fast a RB is for his size (Brandon Jacobs running a 4.5 is more impressive than Jacquizz Rodgers running a 4.5) and has been a pretty good predictor of future RB success.  100 is average, and higher scores are better (the record is 125).


March 1st, 2013 at 2:55 PM ^

Lucky to run a 4.5? Now, I understand he certainly doesn't run a 4.3 at 220 pounds. But to say he'd be lucky to get a 4.5? It's certainly not unthinkable. Le'Veon Bell just clocked a 4.6 OFFICIAL time at the combine at 225 pounds. So I don't think it's unheard of that Derrick Green could run a 4.5. You know there is a reason he is one of only a few guys to be named the #1 running back by both of the big recruiting services.


March 1st, 2013 at 6:05 PM ^

I did some digging and even though I thought Green was invited to The Opening, his name does not appear in any of the databases from this past year's Nike Combine results. 

I did find an interview from his junior year, however, where he ran an electronic 4.58 40. How much that changed his senior year, who knows.


March 1st, 2013 at 12:20 PM ^

One of the more interesting stats I think I have seen. If those numbers are correct, a cocked eyebrow should generally be the first reaction to a reported speed that is below 4.5.

Good stat for fans RT @KippLAdams Out of 16639 recruits at 2012 Nike SPARQ Combines, only 19 ran a electronically-timed sub 4.50 forty TomVH


March 1st, 2013 at 12:36 PM ^

Other than track athletes who work on those specific traits, I would expect most kids to be a little slower - particularly those that are packing on a lot of weight/muscle that doesn't contribute to speed.

..not that I dispute that 40 times are fake at the HS level, but that SPARQ data is more convincing than NFL combine data 4 years later.