College basketball open thread- Saturday

Submitted by jmblue on March 9th, 2013 at 12:47 PM

A lot of good games today.  Not too much of note in the Big Ten (although Purdue is showing that they really have improved with their demolition of Minnesota), but a lot elsewhere.

#6 Georgetown is taking on #17 Syracuse right now.  Of course we want Syracuse there.

#11 Florida is in a tight one with Kentucky in the first half.

#24 ND travels to #8 Louisville, so we (yuck) want them to win that.

#9 K-State plays at #13 OkSU.  There, I think it's okay to root for KSU, since we've beaten them - that's really a nice win on our résumé.

#4 Kansas at Baylor.  It's a longshot, but let's go Bears.

And of course, #3 Duke at UNC tonight.

 

Comments

lonewolf371

March 9th, 2013 at 12:50 PM ^

So far they're up a decent amount on Minnesota. With the road win over Wisconsin and staying competitive against Michigan, I think they're a different team now. Watching Ronnie Johnson today vs. against Eastern Michigan is night and day. Rapheal Davis has really come along as well. Hammons may have snapped out of his slump.

jmblue

March 9th, 2013 at 1:14 PM ^

We showed against MSU that we can play good team defense (our rebounding was poor, but our initial D was very good).  Whether we can do it consistently is the question.

I think we may see the 1-3-1 make a return at times in the tourney.  It works best against opponents that haven't seen it much.  

 

lonewolf371

March 9th, 2013 at 1:03 PM ^

I'd say the only key senior is DJ Byrd, and to be honest I think Purdue might get more production out of a different starter at that spot (such as Donnie Hale, or either of incoming freshmen Bryson Scott or Kendall Stephens) next year than they're getting out of Byrd this year. The best player on the team is Terone Johnson (a junior), but the next four after him are probably Ronnie Johnson (freshman), AJ Hammons (freshman), Sandi Marcius (junior), and Rapheal Davis (freshman).

MightyMatt13

March 9th, 2013 at 12:52 PM ^

I can't decide what I want in that Florida-Kentucky game...normally I want the higher ranked team to sink, buuuut I still have hope for Iowa and it would be nice to see Kentucky's bubble popped

OmarDontScare

March 9th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

This Kentucky situation is fascinating to me. I believe I heard this on SVP and Russillo this week - They were saying they don't think UK has any Pros on their roster besides Noel obviously.

Problem is, with the number of guys they have coming in next year, a bunch of their Freshman are going to have to go Pro. These kids are in an awful spot because if they stay in school maybe they could develop but Cal is going to basically force them out.

When these kids are in HS they just assume they'll be the next Derrick Rose or Anthony Davis. Calipari had to know some of these guys just weren't on that level but I'm sure that's what he sold them.

What are everyone's thoughts on this? Unethical?

LSAClassOf2000

March 9th, 2013 at 1:10 PM ^

Minnesota's effective FG% was 33.9% at the half, whereas Purdue is shooting 60.6%. That percentage for Purdue comes despite fewer offensive rebounds and committing a few more turnovers. On the other hand, Purdue has more defensive rebounds and almost twice the assists of Minnesota. 

Per Massey, this is probably the only other near-tossup game in the Big Ten this weekend, with the pregame estimate of 59% in favor of Minnesota winning. We have 55% for a win probability against Indiana. They give Iowa and 88% chance against Nebraska, and MSU a 96% chance against Northwestern. 

snarling wolverine

March 9th, 2013 at 1:51 PM ^

Huh.  I don't understand why the computers like Minnesota so much.  They're on the verge of finishing 8-10 in league play (losing 10 of their last 15) and going 1-8 on the road in conference, but somehow they're considered a lock for the tourney.  I know they did some good work out of conference, but their resume to me seems like that of a bubble team at best.

 

 

ghost

March 9th, 2013 at 2:00 PM ^

A bubble team at best?  Have you looked at who is near the bubble?  Most of those teams either have no good wins or a pile of bad losses.  13 top 100 wins, 3-5 against the top 20, only played 3 games against sub 200 competition.  They have beaten MSU, Indiana, Illinois, and Wisconsin in conference. 

jmblue

March 9th, 2013 at 2:11 PM ^

They're an interesting case study.  You can make arguments for them both ways.  They have a lot of good wins, but the losing conference record - even in a strong conference - hurts them.  They certainly seemed like a lock as recently as a week ago.  But if they end up finishing the season losing to Nebraska, Purdue and then their 8-9 opponent . . . it could get dicey.

 

jmblue

March 9th, 2013 at 2:30 PM ^

They have a top 25 RPI right now.  After today they'll drop (losing to a 100+ team), and if they lose the 8-9 game, which might be a rematch against Purdue, they'll drop further.  If they win the Thursday game they're probably OK, but if they lose they could be sweating it out.  Late-season collapses can be punished by the committee (our 2006 and 2007 teams come to mind).  There's always one team that unexpectedly gets left out.  They could be that team.

 

 

 

ghost

March 9th, 2013 at 2:39 PM ^

Palm has them as an 8 seed.  They would have to fall to probably a 13 to be left out.  16 teams would have to pass them.  As long that RPI stays top 40 they would be fine and it will.  Look at who Kentucky, Tenn, St.Mary's, etc. have beaten. Those teams are on the right side of the bubble.  A bunch of the bubble teams are in the SEC so they are going to eliminate each other.  Who else would jump them? Maryland?  No chance.  Providence and St. John's probably will need to get to the Big East final.  Iowa is going to be in front of them.  They don't have the quality wins and they played a weak Big10 schedule.  Umass and Xavier probably need to get to the A10 final.

snarling wolverine

March 9th, 2013 at 3:29 PM ^

I know Minnesota did a ton to shore up its resume in December (and then opened B1G play with a win over MSU).  But they've been horrible for most of the last two months.  To lose 10 of your last 15 (and go 1-8 on the road in league play) is pretty unthinkable for a tourney team.  I guess they'll survive the selection committee but aside from the IU game (where the hell did  that performance come from?)  they sure haven't passed the eyeball test for awhile now.

 

jmblue

March 9th, 2013 at 2:04 PM ^

When we played Minnesota, they were ranked #9 in the country.  In next week's Big Ten Tournament, they will be the #9 seed out of 12.  Unreal.  

 

 

Needs

March 9th, 2013 at 4:27 PM ^

Iowa also played a terrible, terrible non-conference schedule (308 SOS in the non-conference). They played 5 teams with a 300+ RPI. And they've kind of had that thing Northwestern had the last few years where they have lost a lot of close games against good teams that would be resume builders (losses by 3 and 4 at home to MSU and IU, respectively; 3 point loss at Minny, a double OT loss at the Trohl Center).

I'm rooting for them to make it, because I like the way they play and because FRAN! is entertaining, but they've kind of dug their own grave by scheduling so poorly and failing to finish games.

WolverineHistorian

March 9th, 2013 at 2:11 PM ^

Crap. Kentucky pulled out the win over Florida thanks tothe Gators going scoreless the last 7 minutes of the game. They still have no business going to the tourney. They pretty much have the resume of Tommy Amaker's two Michigan teams that just missed the tournament and had to settle for being a #1 seed in the NIT. But I doubt they'll have the same fate. Too bad. I'd love to see Calipari's cheating ass playing for an NIT title.

dc22

March 9th, 2013 at 2:15 PM ^

Dislike Calipari as much as the next guy but a Florida loss helps us in seeding. If things fall our way later tonight, we might be able to guarantee a 2 seed with a win tomorrow.
Btw, what the heck happened to the Cuse?

ILMichFan70

March 9th, 2013 at 2:22 PM ^

Need a victory today to clinch a share of the Big East. Picked seventh in the Big East and could end up tied for first. Great coaching by Buzz Williams after losing their stars from last year.

B-Nut-GoBlue

March 9th, 2013 at 2:53 PM ^

Wow.  I was watching Georgetown/Cuse' game for the most part earlier and was assuming the Minnesota/Purdue game was later.  Did not know until this thread that Purdue beat their ass.  Iowa will now probably finish 6th in the Big Ten.  I know people are hell bent saying they're not close to being in as conference "standings" are not a pre-req for Tourney bids, but man the 6th team in the Big Ten not getting a bid?

chatster

March 9th, 2013 at 3:38 PM ^

Though many "Bracketologists" have Syracuse (23-8, 11-7 in Big East) currently listed as a four seed in the NCAA Tournament, the Orange have dropped four of their last five games, with their only win in that time coming at home against the last-place team in the Big East, DePaul (11-19, 2-15 in Big East before their game today at home against Pitt). Today’s 61-39 loss to Georgetown marked the lowest point total EVER for Syracuse in a Big East game.

Although Syracuse's RPI has been in the top 20 most of the year, and they were 17th before today's game, they've been playing poorly for the past five weeks.  Their only win against an RPI top 30 team came on January 19 at Louisville (70-68).  Their last win against a top 50 RPI team was at home on February 4 against Notre Dame.  If their RPI drops below 20 after today, that's six-seed range for the NCAA Tournament.

Syracuse will finish fifth or sixth in the Big East, so their opening game in the Big East Conference Tournament should be a win, but if they were to lose that game, it would not be unreasonable for Syracuse to wind up with a seven or eight seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

LSAClassOf2000

March 9th, 2013 at 5:01 PM ^

As expected, the Big Ten results of today did not change the relative probabilities of our seeding too much, but there is the Wisconsin / Penn State game yet to consider. Wisconsin is a heavy favorite on Massey (80.0% chance of a win), but the game will eliminate one possibility. The table below describes the probabilities in the event of a Wisconsin win or loss:

 

SEED RIGHT NOW WISC. WIN WISC. LOSS
1 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
2 9.35% 9.35% 9.35%
3 45.65% 45.65% 45.65%
4 9.00% 0.00% 45.00%
5 36.00% 45.00% 0.00%