College Basketball: Afternoon Games Open Thread

Submitted by mgowill on March 9th, 2019 at 1:32 PM

Auburn looking to pull off the upset. Tight game so far. Northwestern plays Purdue in about an hour. 

Comments

Monk

March 9th, 2019 at 2:07 PM ^

I perused the net and kenpom and I think that big ten could be tough to get 8 teams in.  OSU (49 in net) is the lowest seed I think in the current bracketologies, but as has been discussed, they're going to lose out unless they get Wesson back and probably not make the ncaa's.  Minnesota is at 56 in net, I can't see them getting in unless the make a run in the tourney.  That leaves PSU! at 47, IU at 50, and Nebraska at 51.  But all those teams have really bad conf records, I doubt they get in, leaving six teams in the tourney, maybe 7.

TrueBlue2003

March 9th, 2019 at 3:33 PM ^

I think you're focusing too much on the NET ranking instead of full resumes.  Minnesota has several quality wins (Washington on Neutral floor, at Wisconsin, Purdue, Iowa) and zero losses in Q3 or Q4.

They're sitting pretty comfortably at this point.  If they lose in the first round of the BTT and a lot of other teams steal bids, they might be in trouble.

PSU and Nebraska definitely won't get in. 

IU is precarious.  They're squarely on the bubble and need to do something in the BTT or hope for low number of bid stealers. 

OSU is in a weird position because you wonder how the committee will evaluate them without Wesson.  Their resume is on the right side of the cut line but they've clearly been worse without him and you wonder if the committee dings them for that.  A win this weekend over Wisconsin probably punches their ticket but a loss puts them at serious risk, right alongside IU needing to probably to win at least one in the BTT and/or hope for minimal bid stealers.

The conference is almost certain to get 7 and could get as many as 9 if IU and OSU make it.

Odds are: 8.

Jordan2323

March 9th, 2019 at 3:37 PM ^

In most opinions, the order of best conferences go like this: ACC, B1G, SEC, everyone else. I keep seeing the SEC with 8 in so the B1G should at least get 8 in  They have the damm annually overrated Big 12 with 6 in. I can see where we might only get 7 in if Wesson isnt coming back this year. 

J.

March 9th, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^

I must not have "most opinions."  The ACC is strong at the top and bad at the bottom.  Wake Forest is awful -- worse than any Big Ten team by a significant margin -- and Georgia Tech isn't very good either.  The Big Ten, OTOH, is a little weaker at the top, but there are zero bad teams -- even Rutgers is now up to #70 in KenPom and #97 in the NET.  (Illinois is probably the worst team, at #77 KenPom and #101 NET).

KenPom orders the conferences Big Ten, Big 12, ACC, SEC, based on how difficult it would be to go .500 in conference play.  (That balances out the effects of really good and really bad teams).  That doesn't necessarily mean that the Big Ten should get the most bids, though -- just because the conference is strong doesn't mean that the teams in the conference are bid-worthy.  Somewhat paradoxically, it can be a little easier to get more bids in an easier conference because you've got a couple of doormats to prop up everybody else's win totals.

J.

March 9th, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^

You can't look at things in a vacuum.  For every Big Ten team you take out of the field, you have to put another team in.  If you don't think Minnesota gets a bid because of its bad NET rating, you must be putting St. Mary's (38, but "next four out" on the current bracket matrix) or Furman (42, ditto) instead.  Historically, St. Mary's does not have the kind of résumé to get an at-large bid; they're 1-6 in Q1 games, 2-3 in Q2 games, and 20-11 overall.  They're #38 in the NET because of a number of close losses, which is fine for a predictive system, but which shouldn't be a primary criterion for a "what have you done" system.

Furman is a little better, at 1-5 in Q1 and 3-0 in Q2, but not much.

Minnesota, OTOH, is 3-9 against Q1 and 7-3 against Q2.  While that's not a fantastic résumé, and they are rightly considered to be on the bubble, it's much better than what these other, higher-NET teams have done.

Monk

March 9th, 2019 at 2:13 PM ^

huge loss by Tenn, opens the door, but not for Michigan, because last time I said that, UM lost to MSU, so in keeping with the negbang thread, opens the door for Kentucky, the loser of UNC-Duke today (winner will get a 1-seed I think) and MSU.

J.

March 9th, 2019 at 3:06 PM ^

Florida is currently up 1 on Kentucky at the half.

Maybe this actually opens the door for LSU.  Wouldn't that be a hoot?  LSU with the sure-to-be-vacated one seed and a huge public embarrassment for the NCAA.  Pass the popcorn. ;)

J.

March 9th, 2019 at 4:23 PM ^

Sadly, Kentucky woke up in the second half and ended up winning, although they didn't quite cover the KenPom (or Vegas) spread.

I still think that if Michigan or MSU wins its next four games, they'd get a 1 seed.  I wouldn't mind seeing an upset in the SEC tournament though.

Muttley

March 9th, 2019 at 3:09 PM ^

I wonder what Kaleb Wesson did to get suspended indefinitely during OSU's stretch run.

I'm thinking he beat up a starting football player.

J.

March 9th, 2019 at 5:23 PM ^

Speaking of the bubble: Texas, what are you doing??

The Longhorns lose by 13 at home, to TCU, on Senior Day to drop to 16-15 overall and 8-10 in conference play.  They're locked into the 6 seed in the Big 12 tournament, and they'll get a first round bye and then a game with Kansas.

They're currently #28 in KenPom and #34 in the NET, although the latter will drop as a result of this game.  They're a 10 seed on this morning's Bracket Matrix.

If they lose to Kansas, do they get in the tournament at 16-16??  They'd be 5-10 in Q1, 4-4 in Q2, 4-2 in Q3*, and 3-0 in Q4, with a NET likely somewhere in the 40s and three Q1-A wins (neutral vs. UNC, home vs. Purdue, @KSU).  (One of their losses is a home game vs #76 Providence; a one-spot move up the ladder will turn that into a Q2 loss instead of Q3).

If they beat Kansas and lose in the semis, they're a virtual lock, right? At 17-16?

Jordan2323

March 9th, 2019 at 5:54 PM ^

When they slow the game down they are very annoying to watch. Similar to Bo Ryan at Wisconsin style of play. I find them very efficient in every thing they do though and when the game moves a little faster, they are fun to watch. Good defense, good ball movement, good shooting