LSAClassOf2000

November 28th, 2017 at 2:27 PM ^

I just don't understand how David Beaty tops the list. I mean, it's Kansas football - what do you want from the man, the second coming of Mark Mangino, who wasn't THAT spectacular 9save for an inexplicable 2007) the first time around anyway? 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130608

GOBLUE4EVR

November 28th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^

lovie smith at #2 is crazy also... illinois was a hot mess when he got there and they have shown some signs here and there of improvement... 

even his up arrows next the coaches that are on the edge of being on the hot seat make no sense...

Joined: 01/09/2009

MGoPoints: 4282

NittanyFan

November 28th, 2017 at 2:36 PM ^

and whatever the results are, he goes with.  No sense checks.  I also tend to doubt he's tested his algorithm against history - how well it can predict retroactively.

Fickell at #4, Rhule at #7 and Herman at #16 are absurd.  Yes, all 3 schools are under-performing their recent historical norms.  But all have only been there a year - plus Baylor is coming off a good deal of turmoil.

Ellis Johnson at Southern Miss a few years ago was the only case I can think of where a coach got fired after 1 year.  Then again, he led USM to an 0-12 record after the Golden Eagles had had 18 consecutive winning seasons.  You have to be REALLY bad to get fired after only 1 year.

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 43030

StephenRKass

November 28th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^

  1. Is the team better? If yes, that counts for something.
  2. Injuries, especially Magnus type (i.e., we can't afford to lose Peters and McCaffrey, key OL, Gary, and top 2 WR.)
  3. Reality of schedule. It is brutal
  4. How we do against MSU and OSU. If we can finally kill MSU, and either beat OSU or at least play them even on their own field, I'll count that as progress, even with 3 - 4 losses.

Seriously, if we are at 10 - 3, with a win against MSU, I'll be good. And I'll be less good with progressively more losses than that, although 2019 is the year when I really expect Michigan to be there.

Joined: 07/15/2008

MGoPoints: 23005

taistreetsmyhero

November 28th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^

It’s valid to say that next year has a certain “do or die” tenor to it. They listed him at #27. Were there 27 coaches fired in this crazy year? His seat isn’t “hot” in that he will possibly be fired after next year. But if Michigan doesn’t improve on its record or beat MSU or OSU next season, then he could certainly be on the legit hot seat for 2019

Joined: 08/08/2012

MGoPoints: 39396

stephenrjking

November 28th, 2017 at 2:48 PM ^

Hot seat is overstating it. Would a disappointing 2018 make 2019 high pressure? Yes. But unless he starts producing losing records he will get some time to work things out. 10-3 next year would be disappointing, and make 2019 more intense. It would not make 2019 a year where firing is a serious option. Not at all.

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143524

stephenrjking

November 28th, 2017 at 3:02 PM ^

Fandom means setting oneself up for heartbreak.

But I'm not being unreasonable at all. Of its key contributors this year, Michigan loses Speight (in part, we think, because he was likely to be passed over), Hurst, McCray, and Cole. Maybe Isaac if you want to count him. Maybe Winovich, though I doubt it.

Everyone else is back. EVERYONE else. 

Some people have murmured about the defense. Reminder: The defense was staffed with young guys almost everywhere. Our entire defensive backfield is young, featuring one upper-classman (a junior). Metellus had some issues? Guy was a sophomore. Our DBs had the potential to be frightening going into the year, and instead they were just inconsistent, with flashes of pure brilliance.

Our LBs are improving every year; the position has been significantly upgraded two years running, and now will field a squad led by a junior Devin Bush.

Our offense has suffered a series of pretty serious injuries. We almost beat OSU with our third-best QB. Our receiving corps is ultra-young and poised to improve markedly next year. Black will be back, DPJ will continue his rapid improvement, Perry will still be there, Collins and Martin will be raring to go. Our TEs will be back and better. 

The questions are Tackle and QB. And I think we have better answers for those in 2018 than 2017.

2017 was always going to be a building year. The team was the youngest in the country. There is copious evidence, both statistically and anecdotally, that players improve as they gain experience, and that experienced teams tend to be better given a certain talent set. 

This team is going to be terrific in 2018. I believe they'll be in contention for a playoff berth throughout the year. I would be surprised if we were not in contention going into the last game in Columbus. 

But even if not (we had serious injuries this year, these things can happen) 8-4 does not make 2019 a "win the division or move on" type of year. Seriously, Michigan would be crazy to think in those terms. I agree that pressure would be high, from me as much as anyone (I have previously stated that a failure to make at least one playoff in 18 or 19 would be a considerable disappointment) but firing a guy with this kind of known quality for anything other than a Nick Saban type is insane. And Nick Saban isn't coming here.

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143524

SpikeFan2016

November 28th, 2017 at 6:01 PM ^

I agree with most of this. 

 

But, to be frank, I'd be surprised if Michigan is in Indianapolis next year. We're much more likely to go 0-2 against MSU/OSU than 2-0 and it'll probably take 2-0 to get to Indy. I like us to beat PSU at home with what they're losing, but still far from a sure thing. Northwestern is also a likely win, but has possibility for an upset. Wisconsin should be a tossup; Badgers don't lose a ton either and we'll see how legit they are soon. 

 

I think Michigan will return to the 7-2 Big Ten Record Harbaugh posted in '15-'16 next year; 10-2 if we beat ND, 9-3 if we lose to them (view that as a tossup game). I think if that winds up 10-2 and Michigan wins a NY6 bowl, people are happy. If it's a 9-3 regular season, or 10-2 with a bowl loss, people will be anxious going into 2019 and the pressure will be very high with an easy schedule forthcoming. 

Joined: 04/03/2015

MGoPoints: 6659

samdrussBLUE

November 28th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^

Looks like Paul Chryst is going to pour himself a beer and enjoy the title of Most Secure College Football Coach in America

Joined: 01/21/2012

MGoPoints: 18004

stephenrjking

November 28th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^

Kingsbury needed a vote of confidence at the end of this season, and the vote relied heavily on the fact that he has a lot of talent coming back. If he produces a losing season I think he's gone.

Smith's team is the worst in the B1G this year. He's been decisively passed by Rutgers and Purdue. His recruiting is terrible even by Illinois standards. At some point a school has to give up, even if it means they're firing a guy after a short stint.

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143524

stephenrjking

November 28th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^

Lovie seemed like a good idea of a hire, but it hasn't worked out. They could try to assure themselves perpetual good-not-greatness by hiring an option guy out of the service academies, I suppose, but it seems like Illinois should try to actually compete for division titles occasionally. They could have reasonable access to talent; they just need the right coach. 

But who knows who the right coach is for them anymore.

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20143524

Zarniwoop

November 28th, 2017 at 3:01 PM ^

Its hard to get a good coach now.

By any measurement, Harbaugh is a good coach.

We want to beat Meyer, but really, with whom are you going to replace him?

Joined: 09/10/2013

MGoPoints: 10498

bacon

November 28th, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^

We won 8 games with a relatively young team, we were competitive in the first half of all the losses, and all our losses all featured significant minutes by our third string QB. I’d like to hear what they think Jim should have done differently. Not graduate so many players into the 2017 nfl draft is probably the best answer.

Joined: 01/04/2009

MGoPoints: 18646

jblaze

November 28th, 2017 at 3:45 PM ^

It's worse than that. I went to my local Target (no where near Michigan or a "rival" school) and one of the employees asked me if "your coach will be leaving for the NFL", my kid's security guard, and OSU fan asked me the same question.

WTF? He ain't going anywhere. I don't know why everybody outside of Michigan fans think this.

Joined: 08/29/2008

MGoPoints: 19301

Jangalang

November 28th, 2017 at 4:03 PM ^

I do hope this guy falls on his face, but to put him on this list after ONE season at Texas is just stupid.  Maybe a disappointing season (6-6), but cumong man!  Lost to Oklahoma by 5 and Okie St. by 3 in OT.

Joined: 02/01/2017

MGoPoints: 2943

Swazi

November 28th, 2017 at 4:13 PM ^

Yeah Luke Fickell after his first year running a Cincy program that was run into the ground by Tuberville is on the hotseat......uh huh.

 

Oh yeah and so is Chris Ash after he was just given a 2 year extension on his contract.

 

Sitake is in his first year.  Herman is in his first year. 

 

DJ Durkin had to play a walk on at QB cause all of his scholarship QBs were hurt.  DJ DUrkin is most certainly NOT on the hot seat.

 

Whoever composed this list is an idiot.

Joined: 08/13/2010

MGoPoints: 11892

Squash34

November 28th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^

Who runs this site? There are multiple first year coaches on top 20. And no coach has Harbaughs winning percentage until around 80. Lol I needed a laugh.

Joined: 09/13/2016

MGoPoints: 3062