Closer look at Texas A&M Rotation

Submitted by Indonacious on March 19th, 2018 at 9:35 AM

I had been hearing that the texas A&M squad had a lot of roster changes and that this version is more complete roster than for many of the losses.

Taking a look at the last 4 losses that they had and comparing it to the UNC game...here is what I found. The bench looked the same to me, with the same 3 players, so I didn't really take a closer look there.

Starters: 

Hogg (avg in last 4 losses) 31.75min vs (UNC) 29 min
Williams 31.25min vs 20min
Davis 27.25min vs. 32min
Starks 29.5min vs. 32min
Gilder 34.5min vs 33min

In summary, it doesn't really appear to be the case that the texas A&M team that lost those 4 games since 2/13 has a signficantly different minute distribution/rotation than the team that blew out UNC. 

Comments

corundum

March 19th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^

Texas A&M tends to turn the ball over a lot and they typically don't shoot well. They looked scary against UNC, but on paper this is a decent matchup for Michigan.

Gilder and Wilson were both dealing with knee injuries earlier in the season and Hogg was suspended for a stretch. Wilson's injury ended up being a partial ACL tear, so he shut it down back in February.

ak47

March 19th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^

The argument is they played really well at the start of the season (they beat wvu, usc, penn state all by double digits) and had some suspensions and injuries that threw them off.  

They are super athletic, grab a ton of rebounds and are all over the place shooting. This game will come down to cleaning up the defensive glass and hitting threes, they are going to block a lot of shots at the rim if we can't get the outside shot going. If MAAR, Wagner, and Robinson aren't hitting their open shots we are going to get run out of the gym like unc did, defense isn't going to win it like it did against houston.

Gulogulo37

March 19th, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^

"defense isn't going to win it like it did against houston."

You know that's not the only game Michigan won because of defense, right? Considering their Kenpom offense and our defense, I'd say we have some leeway on making shots. Obviously it helps to hit them but still, it's not like we need ot shoot 50% from 3 to win.

Whole Milk

March 19th, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

I think he is more saying that we won the Houston game (and the Montana one for that matter) solely based on our defensive prowess overcoming woeful offensive performance. I don't believe he is talking poorly about our defense in other games, just that even our usual great defense won't be enough to beat Texas A&M if we have another poor offensive output. 

There is quite the difference between shooting 50% from 3 and our offensive performance from the last two games. We may not need to scorch the nets, but we will certainly need to be better. And honestly, it is the Sweet 16, we would obviously need to be better no matter who the opponent is.

Hail-Storm

March 19th, 2018 at 10:55 AM ^

I came into it in the second half, and NC was already down 20.  From there, it was press and a mixture of quick forced 3s and turnovers on NC's part and turnovers and open slams on TAMs part.

The few times I saw NC play half court defense, I didn't see anything from the TAMU offense.  I like Michiga's chances with half court defense and causing turnovers.  Michigan still looks like it could struggle on offense against their athletic D.  I'm expecting a similar score to Houston.  Hopefully the refs stay out of it and let the flow of the game go. 

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 19th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^

They kind of remind me of the Texas and Tennessee teams UM played in 2014.  Both those teams tended to have bad to just OK shooters, but were elite OREB teams.  I believe Brian called Texas a bunch of bricklayers that OREB really well.  A&M seems like that team as well, except not even as good OREB as those UT teams.  However, UM does not have a flamethrower of an offense as in 2014.  But it does have an elite defense this year.  Will be interesting to see how it shakes out.

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 19th, 2018 at 1:49 PM ^

Yeah the good thing is that UM is actually a pretty good DREB team.  That should mitigate their OREB to a certain extent.  And if they committ guys to the offensive glass, it may open them up to transition points.  That 2014 team was also bad DREB team.  Really that 2014 team was kind of bad at everything except avoiding TOs and scoring a ton of points.  The biggest key this game will be MAKE YOUR DAMN SHOTS.  If they get back to BTT offense they can make a run to the final game of the year.

Night_King

March 19th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^

It’s still a better matchup than UNC any way you slice it. Regardless, if we play the way we’ve played the first two games, it will be ugly. Need to start fast and hope Moe avoids two early fouls. You know A&M is going to pound the rock inside.

Any chance we see Beilein set up a zone early on?

TN GoBlueMan

March 19th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^

I think the late game time start with the fact we just changed from standard to daylight time screwed with them too. Equated to starting at 11 pm Eastern time compared to the week before, got to mess with your body clock there.

lilpenny1316

March 19th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^

They were not a good 3-point shooting team.  They were overseeded.  That was a great matchup for Texas A&M and would have been a good one for us also.

Don't read too much into what they did on offense against a bad defensive team that had to gamble a lot to get back into the game.

oriental andrew

March 19th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^

You mention taking the "lower seed all day every day" and I know what you mean - Michigan's seed number (3) and lower than TAMU's seed number (7). 

But shouldn't it really be the "higher seed" you'd take? That is, the more highly rated (in that the 3 seed is more highly rated than the 7 seed, thus a higher seed). 

It's akin to top 25 rankings. You never say that the #1 ranked team is a lower rank than the #10 team. 

But maybe you're just old and grumpy with the weird drawn-on brows, uncle leo. 

ak47

March 19th, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^

A&M has also blasted west viriginia and kentucky this season.  Think people are underselling them a little bit.  A&M is all over the place as a team but when they are on they are really good and have multiple highly athletic forwards with a couple that will be in the nba. They also lost to LSU twice, it could really go either way.

uncle leo

March 19th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^

Early and on the road. But UNC absolutely buried Michigan. There might be a bad combination with going up against what UNC has. I don't feel like seeing that story again.

I'd much rather have Beilein take his chances against a team that doesn't shoot well at all and is less talented. A and M is good, but they are not great. They are playing above their level, and Michigan is playing well below. I'd take my chance that things will level out.

ak47

March 19th, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^

Oh I am thrilled UNC lost. Just saying this isn't like we are playing K state, A&M has shown the ability to play at an elite level this year,, their top game could match up with our top game, that isn't true for syracuse or k state or loyola, etc. Its going to be a tough game to win.

smwilliams

March 19th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^

Adding to that:

Robinson and Livers are going to have their hands full. Tyler Davis and Robert Williams are their two bigs and both are skilled and mobile as well. 

My hope is that Robinson is able to get a ton of open looks from 3 because neither one is going to feel comfortable chasing him around screens all game. Whether we get good Duncan or bad Duncan might go a long way towards winning this game. 

 

uncle leo

March 19th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^

Every game is going to be a tough game to win. I think Michigan got a huge break with getting a 7 seed at this point, and could potentially get a 4 or even a 9 to get to the F4, if everything goes well.

Something was wrong in that building with Michigan. It didn't jive. Michigan was off for two games, and caught some good fortune to get through. Hopefully we see the team we saw that blasted MSU and Purdue, because that team hasn't truly shown yet.

J.

March 19th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^

The same thing that was wrong with that building -- no energy -- is likely to be wrong in Los Angeles as well.  While SoCal Michigan fans will show up, nobody else will.  The building will be half-empty.

funkywolve

March 19th, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^

especially with tip off at like 4:45 local time.  I'm guessing Gonzaga brings quite a few fans but they probably won't show up in force until around halftime of the UM game.

lilpenny1316

March 19th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^

I feel much better about Beilein vs Andy Kennedy than vs Roy Williams.  I think Roy is vastly underrated.  The teams that he took to the Final Four in 2016 and 2017 were not typical UNC teams.  Those were great coaching jobs.

 

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 19th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^

I don't think it was a great match up for A&M.  UNC and A&M are very similar; they both don't shoot well and OREB a bunch.  They're game plans are similar.  It's only that UNC has a better offense and A&M has a better defense.  But there's a reason UNC was like top 5 going into the tournoment in KenPom and A&M were 30.  It's because UNC is much better.

What happened in this game is that 269th in the nation in 3PT% with 33% on the season went 42 % on 24 attemps while UNC (a better 3 pt team, but still not great), shot 19% on 31 attempts.  

I would much rather face a couple of tall posts that aren't mobile enough to cover a 5 out offense, than I would face UNC.  UM just has to hit it's damn open 3s.

FreddieMercuryHayes

March 19th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^

Can they really guard the perimeter?  Like can they keep Simpson out of the pain like Roby can?  I only watched them against UNC, but they struck me more as the Mo Bamba type athletic bigs that can swat a lot of lay-ups that you don't think they can get.  Plus, if they're gaurding the perimeter, then they're not standing in the lane.  That's a win for UM.  Unless the other team can out athlete UM on a whole, I generally like UM's chances against two traditional post teams.  It's the main strength that Mo Wagner brings to this team.  Not to mention Livers is shooting 39% from three.  Why doesn't he get more looks?

ak47

March 19th, 2018 at 3:30 PM ^

Maybe not Roby but at the very least being comfortable pressuring and keeping up with Wagner. You know Ward and Haas had to choose between giving Wagner a wide open three or getting beat on a drive. I think they can both be in Wagners face and not get beat to the rim which mitigates some of the advantage Wagner offers but obviously still keeps them out of the paint and spreads the floor for Z, Matthews, and Rahk drives. 

 

Maize4Life

March 19th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^

considering we won th first two games and are in the Sweet 16....BUT  wereally have not played all that great and we are DUE to put a complete together..Since We are playing on House money (THANK YOU Jordan Poole) I feel we will be loose, energetic, and come out like the  BTT Michigan..With the brackets parting seas for Michigan the confidence level has to be way UP.

We have as good as shot as any on our side of the bracket to get to the Final Four and we are now probably the defacto Favorite...now PLAY LIKE IT!!!

Amaizing Blue

March 19th, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^

If we shoot well, frustrate them with our defense, and get rolling-we could win by 20.  If we are flat again and they get out on the break and get early confidence and keep running-we could lose by 20.  On balance, I'm going to say that #7 seeds usually don't put together 2 great games in a row, so we'll keep it close and then pull away late and win by 10.

I Love Lamp

March 19th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^

And they blew out Carolina in front of a home crowd. Let’s just hope we get first round A&M. I’m thinking we will get more of a first round A&M due to our D. We won’t allow that many open looks from 3. And I don’t think A&M will replicate that performance from behind the arc.

But we better find a way to get the offensive mojo back or it won’t matter much. I think we will be fine as long as we don’t stand around like we did this past weekend. Brutal how bogged down things get when you do that.

Goblueman

March 19th, 2018 at 12:20 PM ^

When Wagner gets a foul before the under 16 time out bring in Teske AND Duncan (for Livers) The Z-MAAR-Matthews-Livers-Teske line up is a poor offensive group...I would also consider playing zone at times with both of our bigs against A & M who apparently don't usually shoot well..Wagner can play the 4 spot,I know JB won't do it but that line up would be great def.rebounding group & create some match up issues for A & M.This game boils down  to def. reb and Mich 3 point shooting.

OwenGoBlue

March 19th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^

Michigan's spacing will mitigate A&M's size and shot blocking, particularly if Mo can stay on the floor. A&M only really has two plus 3 point shooters so shot math is on our side.

Thursday would be a great time for a Mo breakout game.

SerbianHitMan

March 19th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^

A & M has been a pretty good big 12 team all year.  I haven't seen much of them at all except the way they played yesterday.  Boy they looked good giving the Tar Heels that well deserved beat down.