Chad Ford: Mo Wagner Made Himself a Lot of $$ Today, Moving Him into the 20s in next Mock Draft

Submitted by alum96 on March 19th, 2017 at 4:09 PM

Well there is some worry about Mo going back to Germany but games like today could have him going direct to NBA.  Ford is moving him into the back third of the 1st round...where DJ already was.  I know the media tend to overreact to 1 game here or there but for those of us watching closely - despite the relative slump the past few weeks - we could see Mo's potential.  These performances just show everyone else in the national audience.  Doing it vs some NBA type athletes from Louisville also will open some eyes.

I am enjoying this run but in the back of my head I see two guys @ 6'10ish which the modern NBA is built around.  When DJ broke the press with 2 minutes left and dribbled nearly the whole length of the court it reminded me of something Webber did back in the early 90s.  He has some good handles for a big man.  Yes he needs to bulk up, "get tougher" for the NBA, yada yada but NBA drafts on potential and you can't develop size.

Ford also said last week Wilson is "50/50" on returning.  With that size, outside game, and athleticism a touch above Mo, he was the one I was more worried about but Mo is again a guy built for the NBA with his outside game.

So we might need to strike while the iron is hot here.  Insert "but but but they'd develop so much better in the NCAA than NBA" here.

 

Wagner ranked No. 40 in our Top 100 coming into tourney. Will be in the 20s when we update on Monday. DJ Wilson also helped himself a lot

— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) March 19, 2017

UM’s Moritz Wagner made A LOT of $ today. Huge game v Louisville athletes big deal for scouts. Skilled, 6-11, mobile, can shoot it, just 19

— Chad Ford (@chadfordinsider) March 19, 2017

Comments

victors2000

March 19th, 2017 at 6:33 PM ^

Coach B wanted him to say something to the folks in Germany and I guess he was too shy or he just didn't want to. He just seems like a kid who is really enjoying himself; I see him in Ann Arbor for at least one more year.

On a different topic, isn't it funny the way Germans speak English like Americans? That must really annoy the Brits.

1989 UM GRAD

March 19th, 2017 at 4:14 PM ^

The transformation has been unbelievable.  Seemed unable to do anything productive last year.  Looked awkward, clumsy, lost.  Now a fringe first-round draft pick?!?  Unreal.

MgoBlueprint

March 19th, 2017 at 4:39 PM ^

To be fair, they also saw what happened with Trey, Mitch, GR3, and Sauce. All of them are NBA caliber players, but have struggled during their first few years in the league. Caris may be having the best rookie season out of the five mentioned. I know Trey averaged almost 13/gm his first two seasons, but he was incredibly inefficient. He never hit 40% from the field or 35% from three.

Beilien could point to Caris as an example of what staying does for someone in the long run

cletus318

March 19th, 2017 at 5:09 PM ^

None of those players' struggles were going to be fixed by more time at Michigan, and Nik and GR3 stayed three years. Burke wasn't going to get taller, and Mitch wasn't going to become less injury prone. Caris has looked better mostly because he was just the best pro prospect of the bunch.

freejs

March 19th, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^

Mitch's problems are far from just being injury prone and you know that. 

Nik stayed TWO years and aparently you do not know that. 

Glenn stayed two years, you don't seem to know that either. 

Nik definitely was hurt by not being more physically prepared for the NBA. 

From what I have heard, GRIII has regrets about leaving - he's gone through a lot of struggles that were inevitable because he wasn't ready. 

You lump Burke in, who is the only one *everyone* agrees left at the right time. 

So basically, you've got one statement that everyone agrees with and the rest of your post is shit. 

 

 

cletus318

March 19th, 2017 at 7:02 PM ^

I have no problem being wrong about how long they stayed, but my larger point remains correct.

I never said Mitch's only issue was being injured, but he failed drug tests while at Michigan. So again, being here longer wasn't going to fix that.

Nik is just physically limited by NBA standards. He doesn't have the lateral quickness to ever become even an average defender. His ceiling was always going to be 7th-8th man.

Yes, GR3 did only stay two years. He went from projected lottery pick as a freshman to second rounder as a sophomore as flaws in his game got exposed. Nothing in his pro career to date indicates that a major jump was coming as a college junior.

So again, I was mistaken on how long they stayed, but people act like there was some magic pixie dust that Beilein was going to sprinkle on them to make them more than run-of-the-mill NBA players. There's nothing wrong with that either, this is what most players become.

freejs

March 19th, 2017 at 11:10 PM ^

"I never said Mitch's only issue was being injured, but he failed drug tests while at Michigan. So again, being here longer wasn't going to fix that."

Do you even understand how college works? This is just a crazy sentence that you posted. The worst possible thing for Mitch McGary was to get tossed into the unstructured life of NBA rookiedom. Particularly to get tossed into the wilderness that is being a rookie in the NBA who plays sparingly. Of course, the NCAA pretty much pushed him out the door with their idiocy.* 

So yes, another year of college was exactly what Mitch needed. Unless you're a fucking fatalistic nihilist. 

As to Nik, I'll never criticize someone for going when they're going to be a lottery pick. I was for Nik going because you just can't pass up that kind of guarantee. And the study I posted shows why you shouldn't pass up that guarantee. 

But people like you will never understand the downside of being a non-functional guy on an NBA roster. It can destroy players entirely. Stauskas will never be a star in the league, but he's carved out space for himself - finally - as a rotation player - a part that has some functional utility. His first year in the league was hell. The fans hated him and DeMarcus Cousins was brutal to him, mostly because he's insane, but also because he was pissed off the Kings drafted a non-contributor. It's a great thing he got moved to Philly and he's finally settled in to being a rotation player. 

GRIII's experience was not as dramatic but it was lousy enough that he apparently regrets leaving early, despite the cash. The fact is that he wasn't ready to play/contribute to an NBA team. NBA teams are looking for future value, but they're also looking for present value unless the upside is extreme. GRIII was waived multiple times, sent to the NBDL, etc. 

Why? Because as I point out in the study I posted below, no one really had any significant investment in him. No one gives a crap about 2nd rounders who aren't immediately ready to play. You don't want to be one of those if you can avoid it. 

GRIII finally seems to have a home with the Pacers. Because he's finally a guy with some utility in the pros and not a non-contributing bench player. 

* obviously, Michigan is not the ideal place to kick a marijuana habit, but college is definitely a place to grow up, and Mitch definitely needed another year of growing up. 

cletus318

March 19th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^

Of course it was stupid as hell what the NCAA did. That doesn't change the fact that he, as a consequence of his own choices, failed the test. His issues weren't going to magically improve just by staying in school.

I never criticized Nik for leaving, I'm team captain on the go get your money squad, but I don't buy the notion that he was somehow ruined by his relatively short time in Sacramento. He is what he is, which according to his advanced metrics is a replacement-level player. The things he struggles with, namely defense and the ability to consistently get good looks, are a function of his physical limitations. He'll improve to some extent while likely always remaining a below-average player, but leaving Michigan early didn't alter his career arc. That being said, even below-average players can have lengthy careers.

I don't need to see a study to know it's better to be a first rounder than a second rounder. Still, if the argument is that he would've been better off being a first rounder (which again, is patently obvious), then if anything, he would've been better served to leave even earlier, when he actually was a projected first rounder. Instead, his stock plunged his second year, and there's no evidence it would've rebounded with extra time in school.

Of course he struggled early, as it turns out, the NBA is hard. Virtually everyone struggles early. If you're good enough to contribute early, you probably aren't going in the second round anyway. The improvements he needed to become a rotation player were arguably easier to achieve when he could devote his full time to focusing on basketball, opposed to also having to juggle classes.

freejs

March 19th, 2017 at 11:45 PM ^

but go ahead and don't read it. 

You continue to gloss over pretty much everything: the maturing Mitch could have done with another year under this staff; the difference between a non-contributor on an NBA team and a rotation player; and the difference between getting waived twice and "everyone struggling." 

I'm done with my part in this conversation. 

cletus318

March 20th, 2017 at 12:42 AM ^

Oh I read it. Beyond the obvious first round stuff, the other stuff doesn't quite prove what you think it does.

Mitch maturing with another year in school is merely an assumption. You seem to state it as a certain fact. The difference between being a non-contributor and a rotation player is generally the difference between good enough to play and not being good enough to play (or in Nik's case, being traded to a team that isn't trying to win). Again, another obvious point.

You can't attempt to make an argument for GR3 staying in school longer without ignoring what happened to his draft stock while he did stay. He was also a significantly worse player as a sophomore than as a freshman, which also isn't an argument for development.

1974

March 19th, 2017 at 4:18 PM ^

Well, this should get Chad Ford some clicks. That's the point, right? Long-term potential of Mo and DJ aside, no one's seriously suggesting that a draft position will swing twenty picks based on a couple of games, right? Right?

MichiganExile

March 19th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^

What is it about the NBA that single game outbursts seem to drastically alter guy's draft stock? The NFL certainly doesn't salivate over single game performances in the same way. 

LV Sports Bettor

March 19th, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^

his 41% three point percentage also speaks loudly.............no way he gets out of the 1st round as most of the good teams would take his as a project. Can create his own shot which is huge in NBA. Obviously another year be nice and guarantee him likely top 15 pick.

But you see guys like 6-11 Henry Ellenson last year in 1st round and Mitch Mcgary went 1st round after basically only one real season and neither had near same level of offensive talent as Wagner.

freejs

March 20th, 2017 at 4:14 AM ^

but don't lose sight that he wasn't doing this against like elite talent - Louisville switched everything - much of Mo's success was from exploiting guys not used to defending the post or guys who are certainly not 4's. He's got a lot of nice moves near the rim, but in Louisville he was facing a very specific type of defense. Louisville's #1 priority was to keep UM off the 3 point line (thus switching everything). Turns out we have other weapons that made them pay. 

 

OwenGoBlue

March 20th, 2017 at 5:03 PM ^

The NBA is moving towards a switch-everything league and coaches are always complaining about the stretch 4s and 5s who can't punish a smaller guy on the block. Mo also did a fair amount of his damage against the bigs and showcased some damn nifty footwork.

That game was exactly what GMs want to see from a guy with his skill set.

enlightenedbum

March 19th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^

/whaps Chad Ford with a rolled up newspaper again

It's also worth noting that Wagner's already turned down pro money once to come here in the first place.  Had a contract in Berlin if he wanted it.

GoBlueinEugene

March 19th, 2017 at 4:22 PM ^

Mo Wagner turned down a contract back home to play college ball as a student athlete. 

My guess is he's back for one more year. Then, Mo "Dirk Part Two" Wagner. 

Go Blue in NC

March 19th, 2017 at 4:27 PM ^

Well, there's only one thing left to do... win the whole damn thing! Enjoy the present because the future isn't guaranteed (something our team has personally learned over the past 2 weeks).

BlueKoj

March 19th, 2017 at 4:30 PM ^

Quietly and respectfully asking Mr. Ford to STFU. Good for Mo and DJ to get such high praise with two more years to polish their Lottery pick positions and their UM degrees.