Chad Ford Big Board NBA Draft update

Submitted by Bodogblog on March 27th, 2013 at 12:29 PM

ESPN Insider, quick update if you haven't seen a projection in a little while.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9097106/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-reclaims-no-1-spot?addata=2009_insdr_mod_ncb_xxx_xxx

The ones that seem relevant:

1. Nerlens Noel (Kentucky)
2. Ben McLemore (Kansas)(!) - didn't even notice this kid in their tourney game
6. Victor Oladipo (Indiana)
8. Cody Zeller (Indiana)
9. Trey Burke (Michigan) - says he can jump into top 5 or 6 with big tourney
10. Gary Harris (MSU)(!) - knew he was good, no idea he was this high
16. Glenn Robinson III (Michigan) - moved up 8 spots since you stopped worrying
22. Jeff Withey (Kansas) - shot blocking and defense

Of minor note, Kentucky has 4 in his projected first round.  Which is not surprising, but also surprising given their tough year.

Comments

Magnus

March 27th, 2013 at 1:32 PM ^

We wouldn't be talking about a guy who scores 15 points per game and shoots almost 40% from three?  I don't care what his name is - Manny Harris, Darius Morris DeShawn Sims, Lavell Blanchard, Dion Harris, Lester Abram - Michigan fans would be talking about a guy with Hardaway's level of talent and athleticism.  It just so happens that Michigan recently landed some talent that surpasses him.

In fact, I would venture a guess that over the last decade or so, Michigan fans would have talked about Hardaway, Jr. even MORE than they do now.

Mr. Yost

March 27th, 2013 at 2:40 PM ^

"If Tim hardaway JR.s name was Chuck jones from Detroit we'ld barely be talking about him."

What a COMPLETELY misguided statement. Hardaway is one of the better players in the B1G and he's CARRIED our team for long stretches this year.

He's a classic case of solid at everything, elite at nothing. But to say "we'd barely be talking about him" is trolling at its finest.

Evan Turner, Brandon Roy...very similar players to THJ. Just all-around type players. They both were better, but THJ is still very good in his own right.

I can't believe some of the comments about Hardaway in this thread. I'm actually shocked.

If this was last year? You guys are dead on. He barely played defense, he couldn't dribble, he was a poor leader and his shot selection was only a couple notches below DJ Byrd and that kid from Ole Miss.

This year? My God, it's like watching a new player. He does ALL the little things. He gets his teammates in place on offense, he sets the defense, he can bring the ball up the floor vs. VCU! His shot selection is a ton better. He guards the other teams best perimeter player often. He finishes at the rim better, he shoots better. What more do you all want?

NBA Superstar? Hell no. But solid player? Yes indeed. There is no reason why THJ can't give a contribution in the league somewhere between Wayne Ellington and Daequan Cook. FYI - BOTH players were drafted at the end of the 1st round.

Mr. Yost

March 28th, 2013 at 8:54 AM ^

We're talking about where THJ is going to get drafted, not how he's going to do in the league.

And the Turner comment had nothing to do with either of those...that was about a player who was good at everything elite at nothing being able to get drafted.

Mr. Yost

March 28th, 2013 at 9:01 AM ^

Where did I ever compare Turner to THJ to say he was going to be a solid NBA player?

Please show me.

You can't, because I didn't.

"Evan Turner, Brandon Roy...very similar players to THJ. Just all-around type players. They both were better, but THJ is still very good in his own right."

That is ALL I said. Two players who are all-around players. I was comparing PLAYING STYLE.

We compare Trey Burke to Chris Paul every day, no one is saying Burke is better.

 

In fact, if you literally would've read my post. I said "There is no reason why THJ can't give a contribution in the league somewhere between Wayne Ellington and Daequan Cook. FYI - BOTH players were drafted at the end of the 1st round."

That was the ONLY thing I said about NBA contributions. Evan Turner is not mentioned.

remdog

March 27th, 2013 at 1:18 PM ^

are not good things,  Dude.  NBA scouts are notorious for huge misses on the upside and the downside when it comes to the draft.  I think it's tunnel vision and groupthink.

So I don't care if the sheep on an NBA message board agree with me.

Try instead to think independently.

As for Hardaway's handle, his problems seem to be more mental than physical - he's shown both an ability to run the break extremely effectively and get to the rim consistently in the half court.

I don't know whether he'll succeed at the NBA level but he's clearly a much better prospect than scouts currently realize.

JimBobTressel

March 27th, 2013 at 2:08 PM ^

So I don't care if the sheep on an NBA message board agree with me. Try instead to think independently.

Is this your justification for ranking Hardaway above Harris (same production as THJ as a freshman) McLemore (jaw dropping potential) and Oladipo (radically improved, Big 10 DPOY)? All three?

I don't even have to debate this with you. You are literally the only one who feels this way. I love Hardaway but I see him firmly in the NBA "rotation player" category. And that aint an insult.

Scouts are notorious for misses and group think

 

Ah, the good old "the scouts whiffed on one guy means they whiff on lots of guys, especially my guy" argument.

Maybe you should get into the NBA scouting business. As for me, I'll keep being a sheep.

 

 

remdog

March 27th, 2013 at 2:20 PM ^

"You are literally the only one who feels this way."

So you just did a poll of every basketball fan/player/analyst/scout?  Impressive.

By they way, scouts don't just occasionally whiff on guys, they routinely whiff and they whiff big time.  So I question relying on their opinion as fool-proof.

As for the 3 players discussed above, I just don't think there's good evidence to project them as clearly better prospects than Hardaway.  They may be but the evidence just isn't there.

 

SeattleWolverine

March 27th, 2013 at 1:39 PM ^

I don't agree with that take on Hardaway. He shoots 39%/50%/70%. He doesn't get to the line much. His handle is improving but is still not that good for an NBA prospect. He's OK as a defender but not much more than OK. He's not a particularly good passer and has more turnovers than assists. His freshman and junior years he put up ORtings of 108 and was worse his sophomore year. Seems like a good kid and has the intangibles in that he wants the shot and is a bit of a leader on the team. But overall he's basically a streaky shooting high usage above average college SG with NBA size. That's a skillset that generally winds up in being a 2nd round pick and being a backup in the NBA. That is pretty damn good overall as that is not a bad life to live but it doesn't make him worthy of a high draft pick. He needs to either improve his game all around by making another step forward next year to build on what he did this year. Or he needs to simply make more shoots and in particular become better at creating his own shot.

 

No way he has better physical tools than Oladipo. Vitale's comparison of Oladipo to Jordan is over the top but Oladipo can still jump out of the gym and is way better off the bounce than Hardaway.

remdog

March 27th, 2013 at 2:10 PM ^

but having watched him play for 3 years I would disagree with some aspects.  His overall shooting has been good but not spectacular but his shot mechanics seem superb.  His passing has been superb and often spectacular.

I think the ingredients for success in the NBA are a combination of raw physical ability and intangibles (smarts, work ethic, drive).  With his size and quickness, he passes the first test with flying colors.  His improvement over 3 years from a 3 star prospect to all Big Ten first teamer with continued improvement on his weaknesses proves he passes the second test.

Who knows whether this will lead to great success at the next level?  Nobody.  But the data suggests that he is a far better NBA prospect than his current projected draft status.  There are numerous players lacking in the above ingredients but rated above him in draft projections.

As for Oladipo,  I just don't get it.  He's a very good player but seems vastly overrated.  He does some things better than Hardaway and some things worse.  Plus, Timmy has a couple inches on him.

 

JimBobTressel

March 27th, 2013 at 2:30 PM ^

Oladipo is known for athleticism (see the missed dunk when we went to Indiana), defense (top level), and top level ball handling. he can also shoot it decently. It's no conindence that he's willed himself to become the #1 option on a team with Cody Zeller and Christian Watford.

DingoBlue

March 27th, 2013 at 1:01 PM ^

Will say it again.  I expect 2 out of 3 of Trey, Tim, and Glenn to declare this year.  I further expect 1 of those two to be Trey.  I'm not trying to be doom and gloom, and I know it's silly to speculate before they are even considering the decision, but I want to be realistic-ish and set my expectations at a point where I can be pleasantly surprised.

The biggest loss if one of those three declares will be Glenn.  Yes, Trey is an All-America Point Guard, but we don't have anyone else on next year's roster (counting 2013 commits) that can play the 4 reliably in a Beilein system.  Here's hoping GRIII sticks around one more year to improve his handle and overall game to complement his NBA ready athleticism.

Tater

March 27th, 2013 at 1:02 PM ^

I'm not surprised about Kentucky.  Calipari has committed to building his team the opposite of how Michigan does.  JB recruits a good mix of role players and elite recruits, while developing them and encouraging them to do what is best for their development.  This usually builds a consistent program and fosters team play.

Calipari buys one and dones, tells them they are prepping for the NBA, and rolls the ball out onto the floor.  This is a recipe for underachievement as a team. They will win a lot of games on sheer talent, but if it doesn't fit together or play together, they are due for a year like this one.

This UK team is typical of the talent level they expect, but there is no team component: UK is nothing more than the sum of their parts.

 

DK81

March 27th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^

Burke said on The Dan Patrick show that if we win the Natty he is prob gone, otherwise all bets are off and he might come back. Heres hoping for both!

mGrowOld

March 27th, 2013 at 1:05 PM ^

IMO Burke's gone (and should be), GRII is probably gone (and should be) and THJ is going to stay (and should as well).  

The wildcard that nobody's talking about is McGary.  If he continues to play at the level he's shown the last two games and Michigan wins one or two more don't be surprised if he rockets up this chart as well.  

But I agree with Omar - Coach Beilein has thing rolling.  If they go, they'll be replaced and this is the price you pay for being an elite program with elite players.

DingoBlue

March 27th, 2013 at 1:11 PM ^

And I was surprised he wasn't being listed on big boards more consistently for 2013 or 2014.  However, I think he has the potential to severely improve his stock if he sticks around.  We've seen that he's working on his mid-range game, but it's not quite there yet.  Combine that with a more toned 250 pounds, and his already high motor and he should definitely be a clear first round pick.

taistreetsmyhero

March 27th, 2013 at 1:29 PM ^

1) Can't shoot

2) Has not shown any real post offense

3) Post defense is raw. Relies on hustle and is undisciplined.

4) Not great athlete and not great size

These factors lead me to believe we'll have him for 3-4 years and that he will be one of the most dominating players in the Big Ten for a couple of years

mGrowOld

March 27th, 2013 at 1:42 PM ^

Please understand that I definitely WANT McGary to come back (as I do GRII, THJ and Burke for that matter) but I do think his stock will rise significantly IF we win the next couple of games and IF he plays at the level he's shown in the first two tourny games.  

I mean look at the projected #1 pick in the draft and tell me which of these other than your very last point wouldnt apply even more to Noel (and he has a shredded ACL to deal with):

1) Can't shoot 
2) Has not shown any real post offense
3) Post defense is raw. Relies on hustle and is undisciplined.
4) Not great athlete and not great size

taistreetsmyhero

March 27th, 2013 at 2:18 PM ^

In terms of draft prospects, #4>>> #1+2+3. Noel is is a great athlete, so that ACL injury is potentially crippling (punny) for his draft status. Noel was also shaping into a monster post defender, and used his athleticism to block and alter drives. Post offense and shot are not that important for your draft prospects if you have size and athleticism. Bismack Byombo was a top ten pick, and that dude had only played bball for like 2 years.

Since McGary isn't an elite athlete, and his size isn't ideal for the 5, he needs to show out on his shooting ability, post ability, and/or post defense. His high motor will serve him well in the NBA, but it won't get him as much love as developing a consistent shot from the elbow would...

Magnus

March 27th, 2013 at 1:25 PM ^

It would be a mistake for McGary to leave.  He needs to work on his free throw shooting and his face-up game.  He's decent around the basket, but right now he's pushing around underdeveloped guys in the Big Ten.  He reminds me a little bit of Tyler Hansbrough - decently skilled and a beast (physically) in college, but not quite the same mismatch in the NBA.

I also think Glenn Robinson III needs to return.  He only shoots 34% on threes and 67% on free throws, and I think he needs to work on creating for himself off the dribble in the half court offense.  For a 6'6" guy who's too short/slight to do much in the post, he's a little small for a SF and probably not quite as athetic as a lot of shooting guards.  I think he's probably a SF at the next level, but his shooting isn't up to par just yet.  I could see him being a lottery pick in the next year or two, but #16 is pretty high for his production and what he's shown.

hfhmilkman

March 27th, 2013 at 1:37 PM ^

Leaving early can be disasterous if you are not ready.  In he NBA there are 82 games and if you get on a good team the potential for another 10-12.   Throw in preseason games and that means you have about 100 days when you are not practicing.  Thow in travel days and the number goes up even higher.  If you know what you are doing and are a finished product this is not a big deal.  Howevr, if you have to work on major components of your game its not going to get done sitting on the end of the bench watching 100 games.

You learn your game with practice and game situations.  A raw talent like Robinson the III is being projected as a mid round pick.   That means he is projected to be drafted by a playoff team.  So a coach is going to commit to Robinson learning the ropes while watching his playoff hopes and his job get dashed.  It is not going to happen.  The way declaring early helps Robinson is if he knows deep down he does not have game and he just wants to get that first big contract.

If Robinson is half as good as everyone says he will play himself into a lottery pick next year.  So he can declare early and get taken late in the 1st round and sit on the bench for the entire year and stagnating collecting a mediore contract or wait a year, be a lottery pick, get a big contract, and most likely be a starter on day one for the team that picks him. 

The NFL and NBA are different in that because there are only 20 games(4 preseason) and 10 travel days, a player can be developed.  There is a lot more practice time.  The NBA and NHL are grinds.  MLB has a minor league system to develop players.   If your missing something, the coach is not going to have the time on a 4 games in 5 day west coast road trip to put you through basic training.   A NFL staff can do that.

 

 

 

Brightside

March 27th, 2013 at 1:40 PM ^

If this team beats Kansas and makes a run to the Final Four or Final game, there will be a much higher chance THJr and GRIII leave...  If we should lose to Kansas, I am much less concerned about those two leaving.

I don't see Trey coming back, as much as I would love to have him return...

Mr. Rager

March 27th, 2013 at 1:48 PM ^

Jalen Rose during the Thursday Grantland Live session last week: "There isn't one kid in this draft that's a NBA starter from day 1".

Just remember that when you think "Wow this kid seems too high!" or "GRIII is too raw to go this year!".  

Mr. Yost

March 27th, 2013 at 2:14 PM ^

Trey Burke - Mid/Late Lottery (THIS YEAR) [Kendall Marshall level buzz]
Tim Hardaway Jr. - Late 1st Round (THIS YEAR) [Wayne Ellington level buzz]

Glenn Robinson III - Mid Lottery (NEXT YEAR) [John Henson/Paul George level buzz]

Mitch McGary - Mid Lottery/Top 20 (2 YEARS FROM NOW) [Tyler Hanbrough level buzz]

Nik Stauskas - Mid/Late 2nd Round (3 YEARS FROM NOW) [Jon Diebler level buzz]

ca_prophet

March 27th, 2013 at 4:17 PM ^

... we'll be blessed.  Hansbrough won the Wooden award and was a four-year all-conference player.  McGary making two all-B1G teams would be pretty sweet.

They might be stylistically similar, but Hansbrough dominated college ball.  (The reason he didn't go higher in the NBA is the same reason that he's not that good there - he's not quick enough or a good enough shooter to play SF and is undersized for a post player at 6'9"/250.)

McGary is an inch taller and about the same weight.  In order for him to have a good chance at the NBA, he'll have to show the ability to dominate college players the way Hansbrough did.  He's not there yet, but he could be that guy if he keeps improving the way he has this year.

 

Mr. Yost

March 27th, 2013 at 5:00 PM ^

I said "buzz level" as in NBA draft stock. Hansbrough was a guy who was pretty much a lock to go 10-20th in the draft (he went 13th).

That was the only comparison I made. Just like I don't think THJ is Ellington, Ellington was an elite shooter and not much else. But his stock was "late 1st round" and that's where I think THJ would go this year.

Burke is NOTHING like Marshall and so on.

Personally, I think the McGary/Hansbrough comparison people always do is a little lazy. I certainly see it in spots (size somewhat, below the rim game, rebounding, hustle)...but he's definitely not Tyler 2.0 like some think.

 

AC1997

March 27th, 2013 at 3:12 PM ^

When I see lists like this I can't figure out why the NBA isn't beating down the NCAA door begging to adopt with the NHL or MLB draft policy instead of this stupid 1-and-done rule. 

Let's see, the first pick is a guy who can block shots and dunk and......and.....uh....is coming off major knee surgery. 

And the 16th pick is a guy who disappeared for over a month during the middle of the conference season, going weeks without hitting a jump shot, looked lost on defense, and struggled to defend moderately athletic PF's in the Big Ten? 

I love GR3 and I think he'll end up being a solid pro some day, but the fact that NBA teams are so interested in what they THINK a guy can be that they would hurry to draft them this high is mind boggling. 

Now imagine a scenario where GR3 had already been drafted by a team but was free to stay in college another year or two while he honed his game until his NBA team had a place for them on their bench. 

For the record, I think Burke and Hardaway are leaving but McGary (obviously) and GR3 are staying.  GR3 probably leaves next year and then both Stauskas and McGary the year after.  I also love that our rotation includes a bunch of guys who will be here for their entire careers like LeVert, Spike, Morgan, Horford, Bielfeldt, etc. 

TexasMaizeNBlue

March 27th, 2013 at 3:28 PM ^

or anybody with an ESPN subscription, who does Chad Ford have at #4 & #5? If my calculations are correct, the Pistons have the fourth worst record (4th fewest wins) in the NBA as it currently stands. I know it goes by ping pong balls but still...

I've taken a liking to Marcus Smart from Ok St, big pg and with Brandon Knight moving over to 2 guard they can cross match-up on defense. Knight is too small to d up on NBA 2's so this will really help. Who knows what they will do with Calderon.

However, I feel a bigger need is at small forward, we literally have NOBODY at that position. I liked Otto Porter before he disappeared (along with the rest of the Hoyas) in the tourney and Victor O seems like a safe pick at 2 guard if Joe D wants to move Knight back to pg and go in that direction.

MGoCombs

March 27th, 2013 at 5:27 PM ^

I think what's great is Trey can serve as a personal example of what can happen if you stay another year and build on your potential. I have no idea what Trey would tell GRIII to do, if they will even have that discussion (can't imagine they won't at some point), but I would imagine Trey considers it a good decision that he came back for a year. GRIII can look at Trey as a first-hand example as to why he should stick around for another year. Most players hear about it, but GRIII got to actually see it from someone he has a personal relationship with.

Blue boy johnson

March 27th, 2013 at 5:52 PM ^

I love Trey Burke, but in his two years at M, his NCAA Tournament performances have been below par, when compared to his regular season performances. Ohio Bobcats last season, and South Dakota State and VCU this season, were not vintage Trey Burke outings.

 

M-Wolverine

March 27th, 2013 at 10:42 PM ^

But all the more reason to win as many games in THIS season as we can. There's no guarantee we'll be better next year, and odds are we'll be worse.

Hopefully four more games to play.