Chad Ford Big Board NBA Draft update

Submitted by Bodogblog on March 27th, 2013 at 12:29 PM

ESPN Insider, quick update if you haven't seen a projection in a little while.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9097106/2013-nba-draft-nerlens-noel-reclaims-no-1-spot?addata=2009_insdr_mod_ncb_xxx_xxx

The ones that seem relevant:

1. Nerlens Noel (Kentucky)
2. Ben McLemore (Kansas)(!) - didn't even notice this kid in their tourney game
6. Victor Oladipo (Indiana)
8. Cody Zeller (Indiana)
9. Trey Burke (Michigan) - says he can jump into top 5 or 6 with big tourney
10. Gary Harris (MSU)(!) - knew he was good, no idea he was this high
16. Glenn Robinson III (Michigan) - moved up 8 spots since you stopped worrying
22. Jeff Withey (Kansas) - shot blocking and defense

Of minor note, Kentucky has 4 in his projected first round.  Which is not surprising, but also surprising given their tough year.

Comments

HarmonHowardWoodson

March 27th, 2013 at 2:26 PM ^

I don't think the two can be totally seperated...I think this would be the order that the NBA drafted guys

HIGH - potential AND production

Medium - potential but little production

low - production but little potential

Hello Europe - little production AND little potential

I would say last year Trey fell in between High and Medium, but this year has put himself firmly in the High group. GRIII is firmly in the Medium group right now, but would surely move himself up to the high group next year.

Hardware Sushi

March 27th, 2013 at 5:00 PM ^

I think the key is that production vs. potential depends on the age and position:

  • If you're a 5' 11ish point guard (a la Trey) or 7 foot center that isn't an athletic freak (a la Withey), you will likely have to produce.
  • If you're a 7 foot athletic freak (a la Noel) or a 6'4" PG (a la MCW), you don't necessarily have to produce. Just be a freak with potential. Try not to get injured (although as Noel being #1 shows, may still not matter).
  • If you're a 7 footer that can run and has a great freshman year but returns another year and doesn't DOMINATE capital D (a la Zeller), scouts start doubting.

Ideally, you draft Kevin Durant: A 6'9" guard that averaged 24 points, 10 rebounds and hits 41% from three his freshman year. Comparing Trey to guys of freakish size and athleticism when comparing how appealing they are to NBA teams in the draft is apples and oranges.

MGoDC

March 27th, 2013 at 12:44 PM ^

The NBA mainly cares about potential, not accomplishments. Consider that Daniel Orton from Kentucky was a 1st round pick even though he was a one-and-done backup at Kentucky and barely played in college. These are his stats from his only season, yet was a first round draft pick:

 

Season GP MPG PPG FG% 3FG% FT% APG RPG BPG SPG
2009-10 38 13.2 3.4 52.7 0.0 52.4 0.4 3.3 1.4 0.6

Just in case thats hard to read, thats 13 minutes a game with 3 points, 3 rebounds, half an assist, 1.4 blocks. IN COLLEGE. Those are attrocious numbers even if you extrapolate them to a starter's minutes.

 

GR3's famous father doesn't hurt either, gives GMs an excuse to take a flier on him given his frame.

taistreetsmyhero

March 27th, 2013 at 3:33 PM ^

Take a player like Arizona's Derrick Williams who played himself to the second pick, despite not having a clear position to play in the NBA. Many scouts were worried that his size was not an ideal fit for the NBA, but the TWolves gambled on him because he played so well for Arizona.

gwkrlghl

March 27th, 2013 at 12:38 PM ^

Super athletic, muscular 6'6" guy looks like an NBA player.

I think he could really benefit from at least another year here. His scoring this year is almost 100% setup by Trey. Basically Trey does all the work to draw the defenders and then he just gives it to GRIII for the easy slam. With Trey very presumably gone, GRIII could really develop his ability to create his own points next year

funkywolve

March 27th, 2013 at 1:22 PM ^

I haven't seen much out of GRIII when UM has played the top level big ten teams to make me think he's ready to make the jump to the pros.  When you consistently disappear against the best teams on the schedule, it makes me think he'd be spending a lot of time on the bench in the nba. 

If his dad managed his money right, the money factor shouldn't way to heavily in his decision making process.

taistreetsmyhero

March 27th, 2013 at 2:42 PM ^

Is playing out of position for Michigan though. He won't be playing against 4's in the NBA, and his athleticism should help him a lot more in the NBA than it does against big 4's right now. At the same time, NBA scouts should be worried about him against the bigger 3's in the league, but then again, who can really stop the KDs and LeBrons of the world?

ijohnb

March 27th, 2013 at 2:50 PM ^

thing though, nobody knows what he is.  Is he a 3 that cannot create his own shot?  There is no such thing in the NBA.  I don't see good things in the NBA for him if he leaves this year.  I don't think teams wait for players to develop that long if they don't have one thing to hang their hat on at the outset.   I mean, if he goes, what he is going to do?  What is his role on a team?  Sharp shooter?  No.  Lock down defender?  No.  Off the dribble specialist? Nope. Slasher with mutiple ways to finish at the rim?  Nope, not yet at least. 

I think he is a nice complimentary player right now and could develop into a very good player, but this simply cannot be ascertained yet.  I think the team that drafts him is rolling the dice big time.  Right now I would draft Hardaway over Robinson.  You at least have some idea what you are drafting.

taistreetsmyhero

March 27th, 2013 at 3:15 PM ^

If GR3 had visions of being a 1-and-done, then he hurt himself by coming to Michigan, where I'd assume Beilein told him he'd be guarding the 4. For all we know, GR3 could be a very solid on-ball, perimeter defender. He just hasn't had the chance to demonstrate that part of his game because of where we ask him to play. And his shortcomings on the defensive end against bigger players only hurt his draft prospects.

If I am an NBA scout trying to justify using a first round pick on GR3, aside from his athleticism and high-ceiling that creates, the proven part of his game that I look to is his finishing at the rim. He is already an elite finisher, and that will translate to the NBA.

But yes, he should definitely stay another year and work on his shot. And as many people have already said, next year he will be a focal point of the offense, which will give him more of a chance to show what he can do to create his own shot.

ijohnb

March 27th, 2013 at 3:41 PM ^

right in the sense that he is a very stylish and capable finisher when the opportunity presents itself, but I disagree that he is an elite finisher right now.  He has one gear right now and that is the "dunk on yo face" gear.  He is very raw in terms of improving his position with the ball inside, pump faking, and finding multiple ways to score in traffic.  i am actually very interested to see how Robinson performs against this beast from Kansas.  That could tell pro scouts a great deal.

bluebrains98

March 27th, 2013 at 12:38 PM ^

What's their rush? I know neither is definitely leaving, and I'd guess less than 50% chance for both, but why would they? Both of their families are clearly very well off (thank you daddies), and college has to be more fun than the NBA if you take the money out of the equation. These guys should stick around, have fun, get a degree and develop into lottery picks. The threat of a career-ending injury just isn't the same motivation as it is in football.

JimBobTressel

March 27th, 2013 at 12:59 PM ^

 

Both of their families are clearly very well off (thank you daddies), and college has to be more fun than the NBA if you take the money out of the equation. These guys should stick around, have fun, get a degree and develop into lottery picks.

 

No offense to you but whenever I see something like this on MGoBlog, I shake my head. 

These kids grow up dreaming of the NBA. It's what drives them, keeps them in the gyms on those lonely nights. It's what they dream about. it's the reason they play.

Getting paid to play basketball > attending classes and doing it for free (cost of education aside) GENERALLY speaking. A great university experience that Michigan, UNC, Kansas, and other such schools provide doesn't ultimately change that.

The money that you can make in the nba also >>> what you can make with a degree. And you don't develop into a lottery pick unless you truly blow up the scene (like Trey did). It's potential first and everything after.

The NBA Draft and NFL draft are totally different beasts. Making money in the NFL requires 3-4 years of hard work in college. the NBA is different. They'll develop you in the league for the most part.

Mr. Yost

March 27th, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^

Why should THJ stick around other than simply because he wants to?

What more does he have to prove? Is he going to get THAT much better?

He'd hurt his draft stock for sure as the older you get, the more you drop in the draft.

 

GRIII makes sense because he's still on the front side of his "draft peak," but THJ is AT that peak. Of course I want him to stay, but it has nothing to do with development (or a degree, which he'd still be close to earning if he left).

taistreetsmyhero

March 27th, 2013 at 2:47 PM ^

another year would hurt THJ. Yeah, the draft is gonna be more top-heavy next year, but THJ should still be able to guarantee a spot in the draft if he stays another year. And hey, he may even play himself up a little bit more.

Obviously, the NBA dream will be a huge factor in his decision. But I hope he finishes his degree and comes back another year. When he's on, there are few people who are more fun to watch in all of college bball.

Mr. Yost

March 27th, 2013 at 4:51 PM ^

He's going to get drafted whether he goes this year or next year. We all know that. That's not the point.

The point is, when is he going to get drafted the highest?

The answer, this year.

Last year he was a 2nd round pick, this year he's a 1st. If he stays, he likely goes back to the 2nd round.

Do I have a crystal ball? No. But what has THJ shown that says he hasn't just about maxed out his potential? He's had a GREAT year. He's an intrigual part of the offense, so where is there room for growth?

With GRIII it's clear, he'll be more of a focal point in the offense, he will have a chance to refine his game, he'll have to be more aggressive, his numbers will all go up, he'll physically be bigger and stronger. All of those are clear.

With THJ, he's pretty maxed out. Staying would just be a luxury because he wanted to, and if he does, more power to him! I'd LOVE to have him another year.

But it's just like Taylor Lewan, he didn't come back because he's going to get THAT much better. He was already an All American and he would've likely been top 10 this year. He could actually get drafted LOWER next year because it'll be a better draft class.

And that's football, where staying doesn't really hurt you like it does in basketball. The majority of the NBA Draft is about potential. Which is why GRIII is so highly regarded.

NFG

March 27th, 2013 at 12:43 PM ^

Robinson will stay at least one more year. Burke will still weigh his options thuroughly. Don't give up so quickly on the idea that he stays another year.

OmarDontScare

March 27th, 2013 at 1:05 PM ^

The NBA and NFL drafts are so different though. There are 2 rounds in the NBA draft and contracts are only guaranteed in the 1st round. You've got to strike while the iron is hot and Burkes stock is sky high right now - He's probably going to win the frickin Wooden award.

It's just a much riskier prospect for Burke to come back as it is for Lewan both stock-wise and injury-wise.

Mr. Yost

March 27th, 2013 at 1:52 PM ^

I didn't think he was and I think there were numerous people on this board alone that thought it was 50/50. In fact there were various people convinced he was staying...I didn't necessarily believe that either, but to say "we all thought Lewan was goin too" is inaccurate.

Taylor hadn't done or said anything to indicate he was leaning one way or the other.

Mr. Yost

March 27th, 2013 at 1:49 PM ^

You speak so matter of fact. I'm just wondering how you know this?

I've seen or heard nothing that said Robinson will indeed stay...and there's nothing to indicate Burke will think twice. Hell up until the tourney, I'd say Burke was halfway out the door.

OmarDontScare

March 27th, 2013 at 12:45 PM ^

Burke is a perfect example of what can happen when you come back for a 2nd year. Went from borderline 1st rounder to Top 10 lock. I assume he'll give GR3 some advice

allezbleu

March 27th, 2013 at 12:58 PM ^

Sullinger was a extremely polished player who was athletically limited.

GR3 is the opposite - an extremely raw player who has incredible athleticism.

Sullinger had no room to improve in the college game, so he hurt himself by coming back. GR3 has plenty of room to show improvement which will make his stock skyrocket (if he works on his game of course).

OmarDontScare

March 27th, 2013 at 1:03 PM ^

Exactly. Sullinger was the focus of OSUs team and would have been Top 5 if he came out after his Freshman year.

That is not the case with GR3. He will be a much larger part of the offense next year and his stock should keep rising as he becomes more productive

EQ RC Blue

March 27th, 2013 at 12:51 PM ^

GRIII seems right at the point where it could go either way.  If he's projected late first round or lower, seems like it makes sense to stay and move up.  Anything solid in the lottery and it makes sense to bolt -- although staying can also be a good option, like it was for Zeller and Sullinger, who, despite being drafted perhaps lower, made a final four and seemed solid once he got to the pros.   

Obviously it would be nice if THJr played another year, but I think we will be okay at 2-3 with Stauskas, Levert, and Irvin, as well as Spike being able to soak up some minutes there.  I think we are less prepared at the 4.  We could see some double post looks with Bielfeldt, McGary, or Morgan at the 4, and maybe Donnal will be ready.

I also think THJr is closer to reaching his potential physicall and mentally than GRIII, so staying an extra year would give GRIII more time to grow in a MIchigan uniform.

Bodogblog

March 27th, 2013 at 12:57 PM ^

But one additional point I've heard discussed, and I don't know it's true - this year's draft is supposedly very weak.  Next year's is projected to be much better.  If true, eventually that's going to get into GRIII's thought process (I assume Burke is gone), as it should.

JimBobTressel

March 27th, 2013 at 1:02 PM ^

The players at Kentucky, right now, are caught between a rock and a hard place. They want to stay and develop themselves. But they are going to inevitably jump for two reasons

1) Next year's draft is much deeper

2) Kentucky's incoming class is much, much more talented than them

If they're caught sitting on the bench, they're done. because of this, they gotta take the leap. it's much the same for players across the country

remdog

March 27th, 2013 at 1:00 PM ^

I'm continually amazed at how NBA scouts seem to be misjudging Timmy.  He has all the physical tools (height, quickness, shot mechanics, a good and improving handle) and the smarts (he's shown an ability to work on and improve areas of weakness).  He's first team all-conference in the best conference in the country.  If they draft on potential, they're missing the boat bigtime on Timmy.  He has better physical tools than Harris, Mclemore or OIadipo.

I don't think Hardaway will stay another year regardless of his projected draft status.  He's already performing at a lottery pick level so he can't do much more to change perceptions and there is some bias against four year college players in the draft.

I think Burke is more than gone as well.  I think GR III should stay another year to work on his game but with current projections, it's probably 50/50 at best whether he stays.

JimBobTressel

March 27th, 2013 at 1:05 PM ^

He has all the physical tools (height, quickness, shot mechanics, a good and improving handle) and the smarts (he's shown an ability to work on and improve areas of weakness).

Take the handle off his list of strengths. he's adequate or so-so at best, honestly.

If they draft on potential, they're missing the boat bigtime on Timmy. He has better physical tools than Harris, Mclemore or OIadipo.

He's already performing at a lottery pick level

...

Dude...come on. If we were on an NBA message board you'd be ripped for those statements.

B1G_Fan

March 27th, 2013 at 1:13 PM ^

 If Tim hardaway JR.s name was Chuck jones from Detroit we'ld barely be talking about him. He's playing a little better offensively than he did last year but he is still a very streaky shooter and plays poorly on defense. Over all his game is pretty average, even if he stays another year unless he really puts some work in I don't see him getting drafted next year either.

taistreetsmyhero

March 27th, 2013 at 1:20 PM ^

I don't think there are many people who watch much NBA and think that Timmy has a promising future at the next level. He has the potential to score in bunches, and average NBA shooting guards suck these days...but Hardaway has been to streaky to be a reliable NBA scorer, his defense is average at best, and he is not super athletic. Regardless of when he leaves, his NBA career arc will probably resemble DMo's