CFP Rankings DIscussion Thread: Week 4

Submitted by jonesie022 on November 24th, 2015 at 11:14 AM

Use this thread for your thoughts, predictions, and analysis of tonight's college football playoff rankings which are set to be released at 7pm.


Here are my predictions:

1.  Clemson

2.  Alabama

3.  Iowa (more impressive than ND this week)

4.  Notre Dame (needs an impressive win Saturday night to stay in it)

5.  Michigan State (biggest jump of the week going ON the ROAD with a backup QB)

6.  Oklahoma

7.  Baylor

8.  Ohio State (as much as I hate to say it they are still in it)

9.  Florida (unimpressive again)

10. Michigan (top 2 loss team, the NW common opponent common sense takes over)



November 24th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^

I think if ND wins by any margin that its impressive in itself and the committee will look at not only ND losing its starting QB, DT, TE, RB, CB and some other guys and now this week losing their best cover corner and 2nd RB.  Frankly I consider what ND is doing right now is more impressive than OSU last year up to this point.


November 24th, 2015 at 12:06 PM ^

rooting interest for the NY 6 if we win.  NO Houston.  NO Navy.  NO Memphis, etc.  One of those teams gets in.  The job of the committee is to make "the most compelling matchups" with them teams they have to work from.  Very much hoping they don't find Michigan v. any of those teams very compelling.  Rose Bowl would be nice, but so would ND in the Fiesta Bowl, FSU in the Peach.  Just no highest ranked mid-major opponent.  That would be a letdown.


November 24th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

Iowa would still have a decent resume:
-1 win over a top 10 team (MSU)
-1 win over a top 20 team (NW)
-2 wins over fringe top 25 teams (UW, Pitt)
-1 loss to 6-6 Nebraska

Oklahoma resume:
-1 win over a top 10 team (Baylor)
-1 win over a top 15-20 team (OK State)
-1 win over a top 25 team (TCU)
-1 win over a fringe top 25 team (Tennessee)
-1 loss to 4-8 Texas

ND resume:
-2 wins over top 15-20 teams (Stanford, Navy)
-1 win over a top 25 team (Temple)
-2 wins over fringe top 25 teams (Pitt, USC)
-1 loss to 13-0 Clemson

Tough call.


November 24th, 2015 at 1:23 PM ^

have played one team that is ranked right now and they lost.  I understand that ND knocked a couple of teams out of the rankings but Temple and Georgia Tech just don't jump off the page.  They also gave up a lot of points to some bad offenses and just got by a bad Boston College team last week.  They also don't have an opportunity to impress in a conference title game and I believe that will hurt them this year and will continue to hurt them going forward.  It doesn't help that neither Texas or (YT)USC can be considered marquee wins this year.  Michigan State has beaten Oregon(top 20), Michigan(top 10) and OSU(top5) and beaten all of them, two coming on the road.  They also have an opportunity for another top 5 win on a nuetral field coming if they can survive this week.  The two schedules are not remotely comparable and State will be in the playoff if they win out.  I think it comes down to ND v. Oklahoma if State wins out and that is where the Texas head to head comparison will strongly favor ND.


November 24th, 2015 at 1:38 PM ^

This is tricky... ND isn't a scary team like a Bama, but few teams are this year. What ND has accomplished given all the injuries is equally...actually more impressive than what OSU did last year despite losing two QBs.  That said, barely beating a 3 win BC team in a "home" game isnt that impressive this time of the year.  in fact, that's the story of NDs season: Just getting by against teams with major issues.  Ask yourself, do you think this ND team would hang with Clemson again with certainty? Bama?  That said, Iowa might be suspect.  If ND handes Stanford, that could quiet the doubters... but I dont think this ND team has done much being half-way in two underperforming conferences.

Note: Before you run off and quote us on your other message boards, this comment comes from someone with several family members very active in ND alumni community.  Even some of them agree with me. :-)


November 24th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^


But on the other hand, we got pretty lucky with Minnesota.

And no, I'm not talking about the goalline stand.

The catch that led to the goalline stand looked like a touchdown in real time. If the receiver doesn't put a knee down a split second early, we lose. It was the right call, but we were inches away on a twenty yard pass from losing that game.


November 24th, 2015 at 11:21 AM ^

I'd be surprised if OSU is ranked below us. I'm predicting them at 9 or 10 and us at 10 or 11. I haven't seen many teams drop more than about 6 spots for a loss and they lost to a top 10 team on a last second field goal.

Holy crap I just realized you put OSU at 8. I'm going to click the reply button and not edit my statement so you all know how dumb I am.


November 24th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^

I think that Oklahoma is playing the second best of any team in the country right now (after Bama) and deserve to be ranked number 4.

1. Clemson

2. Bama

3. Iowa

4. Oklahoma

5. MSU

6. ND

7. Baylor


9. OK State

10. Florida

We're at 11 or 12 and UNC is the other. I'm going to guess UM 11 and UNC 12.


November 24th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^

I honestly think that Iowa is the FOURTH best team in the Big Ten but if MSU doesn't have Cook, they can beat them in Indy (if that's how it plays out).


I honestly think PSU has a great chance this weekend in EL.  Call me crazy.


November 24th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^

I don't think you are crazy.  I think, despite the rankings and Gameday in Columbus, we saw two underperforming football teams play bad football in a bad football game and someone had to win.  MSU was less bad and hopefully PSU can pull it together and get a passing game going while shutting down the MSU offense.


November 24th, 2015 at 12:46 PM ^

but is correct about PSU having a chance if Tom Cook doesn't play.

Penn State has the D-Line to contain MSU's rushing game (they only scored 17 against OSU despite minimal OSU offensive movement) and MSU's secondary is suspect.  Hackenberg won't have a lot of time, so PSU will have to run quick developing routes, but they'll have a shot.  Throw it if it's there, throw it away if not and go play defense.


November 24th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^

I don't think you are crazy.  I think, despite the rankings and Gameday in Columbus, we saw two underperforming football teams play bad football in a bad football game and someone had to win.  MSU was less bad and hopefully PSU can pull it together and get a passing game going while shutting down the MSU offense.

MI Expat NY

November 24th, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^

This week's rankings will still be meaningless, but I'm interested to see how the committee handles 3-6.  I think a case can be made that Oklahoma's resume is now more impressive than Iowa's or Notre Dame's.  And MSU's could be the best of the bunch.  

Nothing the committee does will shock me by any means, but I almost expect them to go old coach's poll style and just bump teams up who won figuring that the last two weeks will clean up any mess.


November 24th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^

2. Bama

3. Iowa

4. Oklahoma

5. ND

6. Sparty

7. Baylor

8. tOSU

9. (NT)OSU

10. UM

11. Florida

If we are ranked below Florida there's a major SEC bias and the Committee is bad and should feel bad.

November 24th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^

I dont understand why everyone is picking Michigan to be above Stanford this week.  They weren't last week, and nothing has changed.  I think some people need a small dose of reality...

MI Expat NY

November 24th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^

You're probably right, but I also don't think the committee is spending a ton of time debating the rankings past the top 5 or 6 teams.  Us or Stanford will only be decided if it matters following both of us winning two more games.  If that happens, I expect the fact that Stanford's second loss came to Northwestern to be a big benefit to us.  


November 24th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^

Well we probably should already have been ahead of them. Look at the common opponent in NW. Also, one thing that has changed is the eye test. I watched both teams play Saturday and I think Michigan is the better team. I'm obviously biased, but I believe Michigan could limit Mccaffery and get enough pressure on Hogan to limit their offense. Stanfords defense is not their normal dominant selves. They can be thrown on all day, and Rudock would win that battle. Michigan would probably win 24-13 or something like that.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 24th, 2015 at 11:29 AM ^

1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3) Iowa
4) Notre Dame

I'm leaving Oklahoma out for now because they still have that bad, bad loss to Texas. If Notre Dame wins this weekend, I bet they get in over Oklahoma. Their only loss is on the road by 2 to the #1 team in America.

Still baffles me that somehow Iowa is in all of this. They'd take an absolute beating from Alabama if they made the playoff.

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