CFB Week 3 Betting

Submitted by SAMgO on September 17th, 2015 at 11:32 AM

I'm surprised there's not a standard weekly thread for this, but I know plenty of people here are interested in lines and betting on college football.

Plays I like this week:

USC -10 vs. Stanford

USF +7 @ Maryland

Duke -3.5 vs. Northwestern

I'm operating under the assumption that Stanford is garbage, and USC has the weapons to win by 25+. That also leads me to believe that Northwestern is pretty overrated at this point and getting Duke at only -3.5 is a steal. And if USF just DOESN'T KICK TO WILL LIKELY they should easily cover a TD vs. Maryland.

What say you?

Comments

Wolverine4545

September 17th, 2015 at 11:35 AM ^

Take the lead and make a weekly thread!

I am always down to discuss lines and such, but I am more of a ML type of guy.

I actually like your Picks, I think USC at home is a near lock, this isnt 2007(?, the 41 pt game).

Wolverinefan84

September 17th, 2015 at 3:43 PM ^

Thought I'd give my bets I've placed this week. I am in no way saying I'm an expert but I do enjoy doing analysis and have done pretty well in the past.

1. Temple -10.5 @ UMass (3:00 Saturday)- Umass is terrible and just got killed 48-14 against Colorado who 1.) had a 2-10 record in 2014 without a win in the Pac 12 and 2.) lost to Hawaii already this year. Temple returned 8 starters on offense and all 11 on defense from last year so I expect their experienced team will do just fine in the hostile environment they're sure to face at UMass... Temple also beat Penn St. by 17 (insent joke about PSU's O-line here) and a decent Cincinnati team by 8; Temple was a touchdown underdog in both these games. Temple's running back Jahad Thomas is also averaging 6.0 YPC and 164 YPG thru 2 games; Umass gave up 350+ rushing yards to Colorado.

2. Duke -3 vs. Northwestern (12:30 Saturday)- I think Northwestern's game against then ranked #21 Stanford is a bit misleading. In my opinion Stanford was way overrated after returning just 2 players on defense from last year, and their offense looked terrible in that first game as well. While it's tough to get a guage on Duke's team this year since they've played Tulane and an FCS team, their offense has taken care of the ball and have dominated those games (like they should have). I like them at home by 3.

3. Virginia Tech -6.5 @ Purdue (3:30 Saturday)- Honestly I just don't think Purdue is very good and I think VT should be able to win by at least a TD, if not many more. Purdue's QB tossed 4 INTs in week 1 against Marshall, and VT has one shutdown corner in Fuller who should be able to lock down half of the field, and VT's defense is usually pretty solid under Beamer. I was also impressed that VT held their own against OSU in the first half before OSU's offense just went off, which was bound to happen at some point. So I think they'll be able to handle Purdue even if it is a road game.

Thoughts?

SAMgO

September 17th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

I always stay away from these long 20+ lines. At that point the incentives of team and bettor are not aligned. If we're up by 33 and you take us -34 Harbaugh is just trying to pound out the clock and doesn't really care if we pick up more points. It's just too hard to tell if you're getting a good line when they're that wide.

funkywolve

September 17th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^

and as we saw last week and Fisch kind of confirmed in the interview, if UM has a good lead going into the 4th it's going to be run, run and more running plays.  Since UM doesn't appear to have a really rb with break away speed, the odds that some of those running plays end up going 50, 60 yds for a TD are pretty small.

corundum

September 17th, 2015 at 12:03 PM ^

I locked in Georgia Tech -2 over ND.

Other lines that I'm contemplating:

Texas Tech + 11.5 against Arkansas

USC -10 against Stanford

SMU +37 against TCU

South Carolina +16.5 against Georgia

JarrettL

September 17th, 2015 at 12:58 PM ^

I could be wrong but I think they are better than Maryland. Maryland made a change at QB this week. From what I have read they are doing it for more of a deep threat down the field. 

 

I would also put money on GT covering against ND.

 

Penn State -10 vs Rutgers seems slightly interesting also. Rutgers is a mess but then again so is Penn State. 

NittanyFan

September 17th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^

Syracuse -7 home vs. Fire Up Chips

UMass on the money line (+330) at home vs. Temple, in my "always find one home dog to bet outright" game of the week.

I agree with others, that USC line is way too low.  Give the 10, take the Trojans.

123blue

September 17th, 2015 at 12:45 PM ^

I would think the 26 point line in the MSU game is one that they won't cover.  They're 0-2 vs the line so far this season and Air Force can be tricky.  MSU is going to be short on emotion going into this one and an overrated Connor Cook is facing the #13 D in the nation (which is almost not even worth typing two games into the season).  Anyway, that's a big line for MSU to cover. 

Former_DC_Buck

September 17th, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^

If I put money on games, I don't see Sparty covering that against Air Force. That triple option usually gives teams fits. Maybe MSU get big play fast scores like they did against Oregon, but I think AF wins TOP to keep it closer than almost 4 touchdowns.

123blue

September 17th, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^

I think they're likely a good defense and the sample size is tiny, but they're currently #84 in total D, giving up over 400 yards/game.  Rushing D they're #14 (so that seems a bit more realistic) but passing, their D is 115/127.  

They played a down Oregon team with a dinged up QB and a MAC team (whose QB throws lollipops) and they can't stop the pass.  Good thing for them that Air Force runs it.

Gofor2

September 17th, 2015 at 1:56 PM ^

Clemson -5.5 @ Louisville
South Fla +7 @ Maryland
VT -6 @ Purdue
N.Ill +34.5 @ Ohio St.
FSU -7 @ BC
Nebraska +3 @ Miami
SMU +37.5 @ TCU
ND +2.5 home vs. GT

MGoBud

September 17th, 2015 at 2:36 PM ^

Everyone is saying how much they love USC and basically calling it a lock. Bet Stanford, when the public is all in on one team, always side with Vegas. Take Stanford and the 10.