CC: Contrarian, yet plausible view, on our situation w/ JH

Submitted by iawolve on

 

While I realize I can believe nothing being speculated, the abrupt turn of the messaging regarding our #1 coaching target is at the very least somewhat troubling considering the desire for a smooth transition whatever direction we go. However, I don’t see JH as dead in the water for a few reasons if you look at DB’s previous actions/experience and including the concept that people typically do not act irrationally.

First, as a Regent, booster and former player, I assume he witnessed the Martin coaching search disaster up close. I can’t possibility believe that he watched the Miles-to-UM debacle unfold in the media only to repeat that very scenario. Granted, he has never said JH was a coaching candidate, but everybody else had without a denial from DB. Hence, his silence is acceptance of the message that he his replacement in mind so this puts us back to “Miles and a boat” by default.

Second, DB has shown a propensity to float an idea, get the fan base off their ass/into a frenzy and already have everyone’s first choice secured. He did this with the UM/OSU game, effectively creating  fire storm to pressure his other ADs in the conference, and could be doing this with JH to secure broad support across the base for the guy. Adding some drama at the end will have everyone clamoring for JH, essentially clearing the deck for him. This sucks us into the decision more closely and ensures buy in. This is a tactic used in business and politics, remember DB has considered politics for his second career.

Third, DB fancies himself as a marketer. While I have has this debate regarding my stance that I don’t necessarily feel “any publicity is good publicity”, the drama has put Michigan in more TV segments, analyst discussions, twitter feeds, blogs, newspaper articles, etc than winning any bowl game could have. This talk is dominating the bowl season at this point which gets the Michigan name out there. HOWEVER, this is very risky if he does not deliver JH since there is too much light on the situation IMHO and DB + Michigan comes out on the bad end of this.

Fourth, DB has not fired his current coach. For this reason, I actually believe speculation today that JH has not been “offered the job” on paper since there is no official job opening.  That does not mean terms have been already discussed, but not having it on paper actually would not be surprising. I don’t see this as the terrible sign that others are interpreting it to be.

Fifth, by not backing his current coach and not landing the consensus #1 guy, DB would have immortalized himself in FAIL lore by sticking to some principled evaluation period while every other school moved around you securing coaches as you stood still. I would assume this would be known as a “Pulling a Brandon” and I can’t imagine that DB would knowing allow that to be his legacy after just accepting the job.

Again, there are just my dumbass opinions. Maybe they make sense, maybe they don’t. I still have a feeling JH is coming home and this is just an exercise in chumming the water since I don’t for a minute believe that DB has entrusted any real information to persona non gratta types like Rosenberg.

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CRex

January 4th, 2011 at 1:27 PM ^

I really want to believe DB is a smooth operator has this all sewn up and the rumors are just the media fighting for page views and some rumbling by JH's agent.  The fundamental problem though is at the end of the day we all have a bias to believe JH is coming here.  None of us want to him pass us over and leave us in some form of limbo.  We're not looking at the data with an objective view.  I hope your right, but at this point we're just trying to twist the rumors to keep us from killing ourselves.

Joined: 09/28/2009

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Geaux_Blue

January 4th, 2011 at 1:25 PM ^

JIM HARBAUGH LIVES OFF A DIET OF A PANDA A DAY. DAVE BRANDON HAD TO GET THE SCIENCE AND RESEARCH DEPARTMENTS WORKING OVERTIME THROUGH THE HOLIDAYS (WHILE THE KIDS WERE GONE) CLONING PANDAS. COUZENS HALL ISN'T BEING REMODELED, IT'S A PANDA HOLDING DEN. 

NO PANDAS HAVE BEEN SEEN. COUZENS IS STILL CLOSED. THEREFORE, THEY HAVE TO BE STORED STILL.

JIM HARBAUGH IS COMING

Joined: 01/25/2009

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mackbru

January 4th, 2011 at 1:45 PM ^

I appreciate this. Kind of what of been thinking, only smarter and more articulate. Nothing about DB suggests he's a fly-by-the-seat-of-his-pants guy. So I've got to believe he's had something firmly in place. 

Otherwise, off with his hair. Seriously, if it turns out DB got caught with his pants at his ankles, a la Bill Martin, he needs to be fired on the spot. But I'm presuming, or hoping, this scenario isn't in play.

Joined: 09/01/2009

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dahblue

January 4th, 2011 at 1:52 PM ^

It'll be very interesting (of course) to see how it all plays out, but the timing of waiting until after the Harbaugh bowl game doesn't seem to make any sense if Hoke has been the #1 choice all along (as is being reported by 1130am).  Maybe it makes a difference; maybe not.   Just seems odd that the RR "decision" would come after Stanford plays if Harbaugh isn't choice #1.

Joined: 11/09/2009

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AgonyTrain

January 4th, 2011 at 1:45 PM ^

My hope is that JH is bitter about what happened in 2002 and other perceived slights and wants DB to literally grovel in front of him when offering the job.  DB - get on your knees and start crawling to Florida (bring a pizza with you too)

Joined: 11/04/2010

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msd248

January 4th, 2011 at 2:00 PM ^

I agree w/your view. It would seem insane for DB to not firmly believe that JH was coming given his actions over the last month. He could've ruled out JH a while back if he didn't believe it.

Likewise, the reports that JH is staying seem pretty implausible too. If he was planning to stay, why not say something a month ago and end all the speculation? My only thought is that JH very recently changed his mind... sometimes these things happen.

Aside from this, I personally think Stanford football is in a different (more minor) league compared to UM. I live on the west coast and went to a bunch of Stanford games this year. Even the bigger games had lots of empty seats. The atmosphere was completely different, in an inferior way. JH sees this everyday. The prospect of building a lasting program in this atmosphere is difficult.

Joined: 01/04/2011

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MoonlightGraham

January 4th, 2011 at 2:18 PM ^

Today's leak could be a result of DB trying to make Rosenberg look bad. I like the "test balloon" theory, and you're spot on with the "moving the OSU" game comparison. At the end of the day, if Harbaugh does not want to come to UM for any amount of money, then there is nothing DB can do. But he was WORTH waiting for, worth a shot, and that required DB to wait until after Stanford's bowl game (and possibly save $1.5 mil in the process). I won't believe it until I hear it from JH or DB that this isn't happening -- we all remember that Herbstreit Saturday fiasco in 2007 -- maybe this is a karmic reversal of that time when for a few hours we thought we had Les Miles. But if JH truly is not coming, I hope (ugh) that DB just sticks with RR for another year. He was our best chance for a good season next year anyway. If he improves to 9 or 10 wins, extend his contract a bit more. If he wins 8 but loses the bowl or worse, then look at who's available next year, a Chris Peterson perhaps. I'm very unhappy with every element of what RR has done, even Denard (not DR himself or his talent, but the way he's utilized), but with a new DC, better depth all around, more experience, and a slightly easier schedule next year (not to mention a decent recruiting class that could still ultimately include Dee Hart), I think all other candidates (actually, singular, candidate, there is only Brady Hoke) need to be taken off the table. Now we continue to wait. My preferences are A.) Harbaugh. B.) RichRod C.) Ok, give Harbaugh $8 mil and Bill Martin's charter boat. 

Joined: 01/03/2011

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goblue898

January 4th, 2011 at 2:20 PM ^

We should have hired an AD with actual experience like Brad Bates. His has a much better resume for what we need at this time.

The Bates File:

Education
High School: Port Huron (MI), 1977
College: Michigan, 1981 (education)
Masters: Michigan, 1982 (education)
Doctorate: Vanderbilt, 1998 (education)


Experience

1981-82 Graduate Assistant Michigan
1982-85 Head Strength Coach Colorado
1985-89 Head Strength Coach Vanderbilt
1989-95 Asst. AD Student Life/Interim AD for Compliance (1994) Vanderbilt
1995-96 Associate AD for Internal Operations Vanderbilt
1996-98 Associate AD for Revenue Sports and Internal Operations Vanderbilt
1998-02 Senior Associate AD Vanderbilt
2002-present Director of Athletics Miami University

Notes of Interest
Played for the football team at the University of Michigan under Miami University legend Bo Schembechler.
Twice during his tenure at Vanderbilt, the football program earned the American Football Coaches Association award for the highest graduation rate in college football.
Helped negotiate Vanderbilt's rights contract with the Tennessee Titans for the 1998 season.

Joined: 01/04/2011

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