CC - Brandon's timetable and the CFB coaching carousel

Submitted by Mitch Cumstein on

I came across an interesting website last night and took a stroll down memory lane.

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/coaching_changes_2010.html

Looking back at the last couple years of coaching hires, it seems that really the only hires after the bowl games were by schools that were in a bind, or had a spur of the moment coaching change not based on performance.

For example, last year the only BCS conference schools to name head coaches after Jan 1st were Vandy (surprise retirement), South Florida(Leavitt fired on Jan 8 for mistreating a player), Texas Tech (Leach vs James family saga), USC (Carrol bolted for the NFL), Tennessee (Kiffin bolted for USC, sucker), and finally Kentucky (which was more of a hand picked successor situation from what I understand and doesn't really belong on this list). This year seemed to have a lot more activity after Jan 1 than previous years (given the theme of player abuse). When it comes to coaching movement, it is my impression that the BCS schools control the non-AQ schools. Essentially upward movement of coaches from non-AQ to BCS schools causes non-AQ movement later.

If we look at the year before last, we see fewer coaching changes after Jan 1. The exception being Oregon, who hire Kelly after Belotti retired from coaching. The only other one I see (I could be missing others) is that BC had a vacancy after Jagodzinski was fired after interviewing for NFL jobs against the ADs wishes. The information above is just a summary from the link I posted, you can read more there.

My point, is that it seems to me (granted a small sample size of an inherently stochastic process) that coaching changes after Jan 1st of BCS schools are usually unexpected. That being said, is it possible that Brandon's decision to wait to evaluate the staff after the bowl game will start a new trend and push back some of the coaching carousel this year? Possibly in future years if other ADs like the idea? No doubt we have a talented staff which would be in high demand elsewhere. Is there any chance that schools would wait to fill their vacancies for Brandon's decision to see if they could poach some of RR's staff, either as assistants of head coaches (most likely for non-AQ schools for everyone except RR)? This is an obvious gamble b/c if RR and staff are retained they essentially waited for nothing.

A disclaimer: I'm not looking for speculation on whether or not RR will be fired. My point is that Brandon seems to be bucking the trend and I wonder if this will have an effect on college football in general. Also, any discussion of historical coaching changes (or retentions of staff on hot seats) at other schools similar to this one is more than welcome. Also, I realize I could have posted this in the "Why Brandon is waiting" thread. I decided not to b/c this is really a different focus than that thread's intention and I didn't want this discussion to get buried under atom bombs and boobies.

EDIT: sorry about the formatting, that was a n00b move to use the plain text editor

profitgoblue

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^

I continue to object to new threads started on this subject.  I like to read about these things but I do not think we need a new thread started every time someone things of something they believe to be "novel" or comes up with a new approach to the subject.  I am lobbying for one daily "CC" thread to be posted and then everyone that feels the need to discuss the subject of coaching change or Brandon's decision can post thereunder.

(For what its worth, your premise is interesting but the application of the premise to the Michigan situation violates the Act.)

profitgoblue

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:27 AM ^

Its about cluttering the Board with thread after thread about the exact same thing said in different ways.  The multiple threads on the same topic diminish the value of those threads on useful topics.  If someone has something tangible to contribute other than pure speculation and/or unsupported personal opinion, by all means fire away.  Otherwise, keep it all in one thread so we can simply ignore that one thread.

Red is Blue

December 2nd, 2010 at 3:56 PM ^

I get what you're saying

Its about Its about cluttering the Board with thread after thread about the exact same thing said in different ways

But, other than scale, can you explain how that is materially different from cluttering the threads with comment after comment about the exact same thing said in different ways? 

I hope it is not heresy to ask such a question of a MGoMillionaire.

Eye of the Tiger

December 3rd, 2010 at 1:54 AM ^

...and comment--and judging by the number of replies, they do--then shouldn't that trump worries about clutter?  After all, the CC designation gives those who want to skip an easy indication that the thread won't be to their liking.

What else are we going to talk about anyways?  All the posts showing improvement or deficiencies are implicitly arguments about coaching change, whether they say so or not.  

Personally, I've found the discussions on here have helped me reach a sort of "we'll be okay either way" equilibrium.  

In any event, GO BLUE.  

Eye of the Tiger

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:15 AM ^

...this is an odd situation, and a lot of people think the Harbaugh change has already been arranged (behind the scenes).  

If not,I think Stanford's success this year might  mean he won't consider a move until after the bowl game, which might sway DB against making the change, as I think the longer it goes, the more alumni anger over disappointing losses (especially OSU) dissipates.  Not into a free pass for RR, but into "let's see what this guy can do in 4 years."

Of course, I'm one of those odd ducks that favors a coaching change but has come to think it won't happen.   I'm also one of the even odder ducks who has an opinion on the topic but isn't convinced he's 100% right.  

coachclen

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:19 AM ^

that we can get back to having a coach that everyone supports and rallies behind (I'm not saying that you can't criticize or question a guy from time to time) and supports. Whoever that person is I don't care. I am so tired of all of the division. Maybe it is unavoidable and I am being blindly idealistic. 

michgoblue

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:26 AM ^

There is no coach in the history of major sports that every single fan will like.  There were even M fans who hated Bo.  There were many Yankee fans that hated Joe Torre despite the Yankees winning annual World Series. 

So it is unrealistic to think that any coach will unify the entire fanbase.

But, the division in our fanbase now is more than I have ever seen.  The problem is that given that division, I am not sure that it can be easily corrected. 

If we went out and hired Jim Harbaugh - former star QB, Michigan Man, hot coaching prospect - the anti-RR crowd will cheer.  The crowd that always wanted a Michigan Man will cheer.  The crowd that doesn't want the spread offense will cheer (although Harbaugh has run a modified spread in the past).

But that will not unite the fanbase, because there are many loyal RR supporters who will believe that RR was given a raw deal and will not open their arms to Harbaugh.  And this will be true of any coach. 

All of that said, I think that RR may have reached the point where the fanbase will NEVER unite behind him, even if he has what would be considered wild success by any coach.  (I envision a season of us going 11-1, with a loss to Wisconsin, and people still complaiing that RR will never be able to beat a team with Wisco's size).

Right or wrong, this is a problem.

profitgoblue

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:29 AM ^

You were doing well until you just had to throw in your personal opinion at the end.  As such:

Please be advised that you have violated the Prohibition on Coaching Change Opinions Act of 2010 (hereafter, the "Act"), profligated by Profitgoblue on November 30, 2010.  In particular, you have violated Article 2(b) and 2(d) of the Act.

(See http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/ot-prohibition-coaching-change-posts-act-2010 )



Please be further advised that, pursuant to Article 3 of the Act, the minimum fine for this violation is the loss of one (1) MGoPoint, with the maximum to be determined by the MGoCommunity.



Please be further advised that, pursuant to Article 5 of the Act, if you dispute the application of the Act to your thread/post, you have twenty-four (24) hours to "file" a formal written appeal by replying to this post.  All appeals will be considered on their merits as soon as practical, unless deemed to be frivolous by Profitgoblue in his sole discretion.

CalifExile

December 2nd, 2010 at 3:33 PM ^

You should have included among reasons that hiring JH won't unite the fan base that some will never accept Harbaugh (whether they want a Michigan man or not) because he threw Bo under the bus by claiming (after Bo passed away) that Bo prevented players from pursuing challenging academic programs.

Eye of the Tiger

December 3rd, 2010 at 2:03 AM ^

As in, win 9+ or 8 plus OSU, people will get behind him.  As much as some people want a coaching change, this is mostly based on a feeling that RR's strategy for success hasn't worked in the pressure cooker of a Big 10 season (where teams play differently and at a higher average level than in the Big East).  If they are proven wrong, and their team excels, I think most current Harbaugh supporters will get behind RR.  And if we make the change, and Harbaugh wins 9+ or 8 plus OSU, I think most RR supporters will get behind him.

They HAVE to, as really the only legitimate reason to support or not support a coach is their success on the field, with special emphasis on rivalry games.

(Okay, there's more reasons...taking care of the kids' well-being, giving back to the community, getting alumni excited, etc.)

"I don't support this winning coach because I prefer another offensive system" means you don't really support the team, you support the system. 

Now, it's a different story if either coach comes in and doesn't win.  Either will face scrutiny.  RR's would be worse because he's already been here 3 years, but neither would get off scot-free.  

Baloo_Dance

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:19 AM ^

IF RR gets canned, then I'm guessing DB wants to avoid having all parties vilified by the press for taking jobs before a bowl game (see Kelly to ND, RR to Mich)

 

If RR stays, then it makes no sense. 

 

I think DB is underestimating the negative impact on recruiting this would have. 

michgoblue

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:20 AM ^

Not voicing an opinion on what DB will or should do (preemptive move to strike any possible penalty by profitgoblue):

But, is one interpretation of the data that if DB follows past history (in a vacuum, ignoring any conspiracy theories re: Harbaugh already being locked up and waiting to announce until after Bowl Game), it is unlikely that he will be firing RR?  Looking at the list, absent some unexpected event, there does not appear to be much precedent for firing a coach after 1/1.

Beavis

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:22 AM ^

I think you could throw the potential RR firing into the "unexpected" pile as well.  Because, in my eyes, we'd have to get BLOWN out in order for RR to be canned. 

Like, 5 touchdowns blown out.  It would have to be a bloodbath out there. 

Again, you can say whatever you want about him and where this program has been over the past three years, but the man has a meal ticket (B10 OPOY) and a scape goat (GERG) that should be enough to buy him one more year. 

MGoShtoink

December 2nd, 2010 at 11:04 AM ^

Don't give up!  The threat is still out there.  You've done a stand-up job so far, not to mention it's been quite entertaining.

Looks as though someone up high also agrees as they have given you a 1,000,000 point boost to aid you in your mission.

Keep it up!

st barth

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:23 AM ^

Is it possible that people are simply reading to much into the waiting on a Brandon decision?  This isn't the Lebron James d-day drama.  Brandon has said that he will wait until the completion of the to evaluate the program.  That is a bit different than saying he will wait until the end of the season to decide who the coach is.

My other point about the timetable is that people keep wondering, why the wait?  when they should be asking, what's the hurry?  Brandon has stated that he needs to consider the big picture perspective as well as each season.  With over 100 years of football at M, if Rodriquez ends up failing, does it really matter whether it was 3 years of mediocrity or 4 years?

Also, big picture from Brandon's perspective is that his personal legacy as AD will be hugely impacted by whatever hires he makes for head football coach.  With a young and improving team, there is enough risk at play that, frankly, it would be to Brandon's personal advantage to allow Rodriguez another year to either 1- bury himself in mediocrity (obvious, dismissal time even among RR supporters) or 2-continue the upward improvement (and what's to complain about that?)

If M is Harbaugh's dream job then he will come whenever M calls (even if he has to pull a Kiffin-at-Tennessee bail job).  M is still a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that few coaches will pass up.

So with respect to timetable, there's really little for Brandon to gain by making a change this year instead of next.  Probably he is being demure on the subject to keep a little heat on Rodriguez and the players...but also, I suspect that he might get a bit of perverse pleasure by keeping all of the "expert writers & bloggers" anxious over the future.

Mitch Cumstein

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:30 AM ^

but also, I suspect that he might get a bit of perverse pleasure by keeping all of the "expert writers & bloggers" anxious over the future.

This is something I had not thought of, but I like it. Hopefully he contacts Brian when he makes his official decision so all the "news" outlets have to say "Brian at Mgoblog is reporting..."

bronxblue

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:26 AM ^

I don't think we can really read much into Brandon's actions so far except to say that he is going to evaluate this team has a whole and not make a snap decision based on a couple of games or a bowl match-up.  I expect that if RR comes back, GERG will be gone and a DC will be brought in quickly, likely either a position coach at another AQ school or a DC/HC from a non-AQ team.  I don't think they'll try to bring in another retread unless it is someone like Shannon who would be willing to give the DC job a run for a year or two before shooting for another HC position.  But yeah, it is interesting to see the lack of movement compared to other years.

Blue-Chip

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:28 AM ^

I don't see this being any kind of major trend change.  The fact is the schools who move earlier have a larger pool of candidates.  In the eyes of most ADs that has to be a preferable situation as there is a higher probability (perception wise) to land that can't miss coach.

caup

December 2nd, 2010 at 10:38 AM ^

One of two things has already occurred:

1. DB has already decided to retain RR but cannot say so right now with so many of the donors pissed off about the WI/OSU back-to-back debacle. This is the 90% likely scenario.

2. DB has already decided to fire RR and already has his replacement but won't announce anything until after the bowl games in order to avoid the fiasco that happened back in 2007. This would especially be the case if the replacement is currently coaching a top 5 team with an outside shot at the MNC. This is the 10% likely scenario.

save_me_forcier

December 2nd, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^

What exactly are those percentages derived from?

 

You really think DB already knows he is keeping Rich Rod but isn't endorsing him just because he thinks donors would be less pissed off if he says it in 4 weeks, at the expense of potentially losing recruits because they don't know what the coaching situation will be next year...

Red is Blue

December 2nd, 2010 at 12:38 PM ^

You posit that DB has already decided.  What if the bowl game result provides overwhelming feedback in the opposite direction of his "decision"?

Like in your scenario 1, M gets blown out in the bowl game and the players appear to have quit or in your scenario 2, M gets an impressive win and the replacement who "is currently coaching a top 5 team with an outside shot at the MNC" gets trunced.

Does he stick with his "decision"?  If he doesn't then has he really decided?

ChalmersE

December 2nd, 2010 at 8:38 PM ^

that the bowl result will make a difference in DB's thinking.  Does anyone seriously think a victory over (or defeat against) Missouri or Florida is going to make a difference?    DB has made a decision and I can't believe it's good news for RR -- otherwise he would have announce it already to reassure recruits.  See, for example, the current DHart thread.  My guess is that the only way RR is back next year is if the individual (individuals?) that DB has targeted, turn down the offer. 

The FannMan

December 2nd, 2010 at 1:08 PM ^

Maybe when he says that he will evaluate each program in the Athletic Department each year at the end of each season, he actually means it. 

Brandon has come up with a system of when he will evaluate each team, and that team's coaches.  Since that's he has decided, he isn't going to deviate from it or treat different coaches differently.  (We probably can assume that there would be an exception for obviuos misconduct.  You know, like getting caught with a ton of cocaine and underage hoookers, or letting someone come right out of jail and onto the team.  You know, obviously bad stuff.)  

This does mean he will have act fast if he decides to make a change.  But I could live without a month long search committe process picking the next coach.  I am fine with him just picking the up the damn phone and calling somebody.