The case for rooting for LSU over Alabama this Saturday

A 1-loss Bama gets in. If LSU beats Bama and wins the SEC championship, we're probably looking at Clemson, LSU, Bama, and ND if everyone wins out. The safe scenario is LSU losing, which yields Clemson, Bama, ND, Michigan, with OU as the bubble team.

According to fivethirtyeight, the team we really need to be worried about is Oklahoma.

If Bama, ND, Clemson, OU, and UM all win out, they give ND and OU a 77% chance of making the playoffs, and us a 39% chance. Those numbers hardly change if LSU wins out instead: LSU and Clemson 100%, ND 85%, OU 76%, and UM only 35%. 

So really, we neeeeeed Oklahoma to lose a game in order to feel really good about our chances.

I think I would just assume Alabamy win out so that both UGA and LSU have 2 losses.

Penn State, Penn State, Penn State, Penn State, Penn State, Penn State, Penn State, Penn State, Penn State, Pemm State 

I just want to hear them play Neck.

I think you are correct that we should root for LSU, but not for the reasons you stated. You're arguing that we should root for LSU in order to increase the likelihood, but not to 100%, of Bama getting eliminated, instead of rooting for Bama, which would guarantee that LSU is eliminated. Your third premise is exactly why we might want Bama to win on Saturday, because there is only a possibility that 1-loss Bama gets left out, but there is also a possibility that 1-loss Bama remains ahead of us. Your first premise is simply not true. As unfair as it would be, don't put it past this committee to put 1-loss Bama in over 1-loss Michigan. Here's what I came up with. 

1. There will be at least 1 SEC team in the CFP

2. There are 4 SEC teams that are still alive for the playoff. Bama, LSU, UGA, and UK. 

3. Michigan benefits from having no more than 1 SEC team in the CFP

4. 1 of UGA/UK will be eliminated from CFP contention this week. 

5. If Bama beats LSU, LSU is eliminated from CFP contention. 

6. If LSU beats Bama, both LSU and Bama will still be in CFP contention, along with the winner of UGA/UK 

7. The still alive winner of Bama/LSU will play the still alive winner of UGA/UK in the SEC Championship Game. Any team with 1-loss after this game will still be in contention for the CFP. However, this includes a 1-loss Bama who doesn't play in the SEC Championship game.

8. So, if Bama is the winner of the SEC Championship game then they will be the only SEC team in the CFP.

9. Also, if Bama is not the winner of the SEC Championship game then the winner of the SEC Championship game will be in the CFP and the CFP committee will still consider Bama for the CFP. 

Obviously, this leaves out the possibility of CHAOS, i.e. any of these teams losing games not mentioned above to teams that they are expected to beat. In which case, you'd have to look at the schedules to see which of these teams is most likely to drop a game. MSSU vs. Bama, LSU vs TAMU are the two most likely candidates. If you're confident one is more likely to happen than the other then that might change your rooting interest, i.e. if you like MSSU over Bama then you should root for Bama to lose to LSU this weekend. 

I think what it really comes down to is, which Bama is more likely to be left out? A 1-loss Bama whose loss is to LSU and doesn't play in the SEC championship or an eventual 1-loss Bama that loses to also 1-loss UGA in the SEC Championship Game. I think the former is more likely to be left out so I will be rooting for LSU this weekend.

However, if you have faith that Bama would not lose in the SEC Championship game then I believe you are safe to root for them this weekend. I tend to think that UGA in revenge-tour mode in the SEC Championship would beat Bama, leaving us with what I think is worst case scenario-a 1-loss SEC Champ and Top 3 in the nation UGA and a 1-loss Bama with a signature win over LSU and 1 quality loss.  

After all this, I don't think we can conclusively root for either Bama or LSU this weekend. Just watch a good football game and have fun. GO BLUE! 

Its really simple: 

A one-loss P5 conference champion will not be left out in favor of a one-loss non-champion. 

Scenarios Ranked by Desirability: 

1. CHAOS...2+ losses for Bama  

2. Undefeated Bama means 2+ losses for everyone else in the SEC

3. LSU defeats Bama. LSU/UGA/UK SEC Champion in CFP with 1-loss, Bama has 1-loss and no signature win. 

4. Bama defeats LSU, loses to UGA in SEC Championship Game. 1-loss SEC Champ UGA is in, and committee has to decide whether 1-quality loss Bama with signature win over LSU is in or out. 

Was already planning on it

I get where your head is, but I don't agree.  By my count, there are 11 teams still in the discussion for the CFP (top 10 and West Va).  This even seems a little overly inclusive (Kentucky/West Va.) but whatever your count, the idea is the same.    

If LSU loses, that number decreases by one.  If Bama loses, the number stays the same.  It's as simple as that.

There could be a situation that arises where a Bama loss here helps us, it's just much less likely than an LSU loss helping us.  

As far as our rooting interests are concerned, we are going to be a really split fan base this weekend with some of the games.  

Michigan and LSU are very similar in talent and style of play. We're a little bit better in some categories and probably have the edge at quarterback. Though both teams win with strong defense and a workmen like ball possession offense. 

I want LSU to hold their own against Alabama and possibly win. If Alabama goes to LSU and steamrolls the Tigers, then it would become tougher to feel Michigan could defeat Alabama, because Michigan and LSU are somewhat similar teams.

I understand that Alabama winning out may help the playoff chances for Michigan. 

Though if Alabama really is the best and no team can defeat them, then it’s a moot point anyway for Michigan to be in the playoff. We might as well root to go to the Rose Bowl with our conference championship.   

I believe a 12-1 Big 10 Champion Michigan team will have a strong possibility of being in the playoff. Though I want to also feel like they have a good chance of winning the National Title and not just be there for Alabama to destroy.   

Therefore I'm hoping LSU can possibly eliminate Alabama or at least show that other teams like Michigan may have a real chance against the Crimson Tide this season.

Michigan just needs to win out, and they will be fine. They lose they are done.  I would prefer Alabama to win out, as the clear bias of the committee against the Big ten would definitely be an issue if Alabama has 1 loss you would most likely see two SEC teams in.  I do think although ND's schedule is favorable they will actually lose 1 maybe 2 games before season's end.  I think Michigan would house them at this point on a neutral field.  I think ND has a shot to lose this weekend, and at USC.  My biggest concern is Oklahoma.  It would be nice if they lost another one, but again if Michigan wins out they are in, in my opinion. 

Beat PSU.

I feel dumber now.

I read these posts and a lot of your really think you know exactly what the committee will do.

"The Committee will NOT leave out a 1 loss Big Ten Champion Michigan"

"The Committee will NOT leave a 1 loss Alabama out, you guys are crazy"

Some of you are potentially going to be wrong yet you're so sure of yourselves.

in the history of the CFB, there's been no 2 loss team in the playoffs.

So, i agree with the conventional logic that Michigan wants LSU to win, so the would exclude them from consideration.

Alabama would be in with one loss, guaranteed, but i wouldn't put it past the jury to include a 2 loss Bama team either... but no other team in the country gets consideration if they have 2 losses, including LSU.

The only way 12-1 Michigan gets left out in favor of a second SEC team is if that second team is a 12-1 Bama with their loss in the SEC championship.

11-1 Bama would jump 11-1 ND and mayyyyybe 12-1 PAC champ WSU, but not 12-1 UM, 12-1 Clemson, 12-1 Oklahoma, or 12-1 Georgia.

Well then, what we should all really hope for-because "we" and much of the nation would surely rejoice over, is that LSU beats Alabama then loses another game...Auburn knocks Alabama off to give them a second loss...Kentucky beats Georgia but then loses to Tennessee...Missouri beats Florida...and no one from the SEC gets in!!!

Additionally, while we are at it, BC knocks off Clemson. VT wins out-including beating Clemson for the ACC title. Northwestern and USC beat ND. So no (POWERFUL-HA!) ACC and no ND. 

Michigan is the #1 seed...and wins it all! No problem.

Yes, because Alabama playing a weak schedule, not winning their division nor conference championship really kept them out last year.  The committee has not stayed consistent in their criteria. If LSU loses, they are eliminated.  That's one less team to compete with. I pick that option.

Root for Bama on the road to win big over LSU.

Root for Northwestern to pull more magic out of their hat at home verus ND.

Beat Penn State.

This isn't that difficult.

I have said this too. 

Although, there is a tricky situation.

13-0 Clemson

12-0 Notre Dame

12-1 Georgia, SEC Champ

12-1 Bama, SEC runner up

But I have maintained that the best shot Michigan has at a national title is by Bama not being in the playoff. I think Michigan would basically have shell shock against Bama if they played them and it wouldn't be close. A Notre Dame/Northwestern type start, except worse, and they wouldn't be able to adjust as well.

Your point #1, you state that if Michigan wins out they will not be excluded from the playoffs, no matter what.  So why did you find it necessary to write a thesis explaining why we should desire LSU to defeat Alabama this weekend?  By your own admission, win or lose, Michigan is in if Michigan wins out.  Or are you suggesting that a two loss Michigan will somehow find a way into the CFP and the way in is if Alabama loses on Saturday?

your logic makes no sense.  Why would we want Alabama to lose?  Because there's the possibility they could lose again?  What?  Do you hear yourself?

LSU ALREADY HAS ONE LOSS!!  If they lose they have a second loss and are eliminated. We want LSU to lose, hands down, no question.  It's not even really a debate.  We need for all other non-SEC champion teams to be eliminated because of two losses.  This is the easiest way to accomplish that.  

The problem is that I just don't trust the committee (at least not fully) to NOT put in an 11-1 Alabama over a 12-1 Michigan, should Michigan be fortunate enough to win out. 

Full disclosure: I fully expect Alabama to win on Saturday, so this is all likely moot. But let's say they don't, and finish the season 11-1. Saban will do the same thing he did last year, where he publicly petitions the committee to put his team in and how he thinks his team has proved more than enough to be in the top 4. He will dare the committee to leave Alabama out, pointing out that they've been there every year and how deserving they are, and I don't trust that the committee wouldn't cave in on that. I could so easily see them sneaking in as the 3 or 4 seed, just because they're Alabama, they have the best coach, and best QB in the game, and they haven't missed a playoff yet. 

Sure, I want LSU to win because I want someone besides Alabama to win it all. But Alabama getting in is probably the "safest" thing for Michigan right now. Or anyone on the outside looking in. 

Nope

It will be criminal if an 11-1 AL gets in over a B1G champion 12-1 Michigan. Though it was criminal that the coaches decided to split our ‘97 NC! The result was the BCS championship. If we get screeed again, I’m sure the playoffs will be expanded to 6 or 8 games!

If LSU WINS I think we want them to win by at least 10 points to shatter  Bama’s ‘untouchable’ status. 

But if LSU beats Alabama, that means Michigan loses its opportunity to beat an undefeated Alabama in the playoffs!