The case for rooting for LSU over Alabama this Saturday

Submitted by Communist Football on November 1st, 2018 at 10:37 AM

The conventional wisdom among Michigan fans is that it's in our interests for Alabama to beat LSU, because that increases the likelihood that only one SEC team makes it into the CFP.  I'd like to argue the opposite, which obviously is mainly of relevance only if we win out.

1. If Michigan wins out, they will not be left out of the CFP, no matter what. No other non-SEC conference champion will have as many victories over winning teams (>.500) than Michigan, which is apparently a key metric for the Committee (the Committee is literally not allowed to discuss things like S&P+, according to Bill Connelly).

2. If Alabama has one loss, there is at least a possibility that they lose twice, eliminating themselves from the playoff and making it more possible for someone else to win. (Alabama's remaining regular-season SEC games are against #3 LSU, #18 Miss St, and Auburn.)

3. If Alabama finishes the regular season with one loss, there is at least a possibility that they are left out of the CFP, due to the weakness of their schedule. This is an unlikely scenario, but the likely beneficiary here would be Oklahoma.

Hence, if the goal is to win the national championship, which cannot happen unless Michigan wins out, Michigan fans should root for Alabama to lose to LSU, because that would make it at least possible that Alabama could be upset twice and thereby left out of the CFP.

That's my theory and I'm sticking with it! (At least until midnight Saturday.)

Whole Milk

November 1st, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^

I don't know about this. If they lost this week, and LSU won out and went to the SEC championship game, I see it as likely that Bama is left out if all else goes somewhat to plan. Last year's circumstances were different. It was either Bama, who didn't play in their championship game or a 2-loss conference champ. With the current situation of Undefeated Clemson, Undefeated ND, 1 Loss SEC champ, 1-loss B1G champ, and 1-loss Big 12 champ, there is just too much to overcome for 4 spots in the case of Bama, even if a couple of those teams lost once the rest of the way. 

If we won out, Clemson lost once but still won the ACC, and ND won out, is Bama overtaking any of them with their whopping 0 elite wins? I think not.

raleighwood

November 1st, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^

I disagree.  A one loss (conference champion) Michigan would have a better resume than a one loss Bama.  More wins against better teams.

The Committee can't possibly take two (essentially) ACC teams in Clemson and ND and two SEC teams in LSU and Bama.  Especially if one loss conference champs Michigan and Oklahoma are sitting on the outside.

There are still a lot of games to play so it will sort itself out but if Michigan runs the table....they are getting in.

 

 

rc15

November 1st, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^

I wonder how close the OSU/Bama decision ended up being last year, since the worry is this being the same scenario just with Michigan replacing OSU.

I really don't think it's the same though... OSU's 1 loss was a 31 point rout from an 8-5 Iowa with a losing conference record. Our 1-loss would be a close road loss to an undefeated ND in week 1. I also think that Michigan brings more money to the CFP/ESPN if they make it than Bama going for the Xth time.

edit: Also, it's the first day of November... At least one of Clemson, ND, LSU, & OU will have a bad slip-up.

ESNY

November 1st, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^

If Bama loses to LSU and wins the rest of their games, they would have at best two wins over top 25 teams (Texas A&M and Mississippi State) and its probable that neither would stick in the top 25 with another loss as both already have three losses (Texas A&M still has to play LSU).

Michigan would have one more win overall, a conference championship and have top 25 wins over OSU on the road, possibly Iowa in the big ten championship and maybe PSU.  It possible even wisco or NW sneak back into the top 25 if they keep winning (both have 3 losses).  

I know the SEC bias is real but I just have a hard time seeing how Bama would stack up when their best win would be at home against an unranked team. 

Surveillance Doe

November 1st, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^

As others have pointed out, this simply isn't true, and everyone needs to stop losing their minds about this.

First, Bama is probably going to beat LSU this weekend, so let's all just chill out.

Second, a Bama team that doesn't win its division is not getting in over a one-loss B1G champ whose only loss came in a one-score game on the road at night way back before Labor Day. Everyone claiming this is a lock, please show me any evidence that this would happen. None exists.

To the contrary, we know that it was extremely controversial to take a one-loss Bama team that didn't win its division over a two-loss B1G champ that was blown out by a mediocre team in November. All of the hypotheticals being tossed around assume Michigan wins out, so we are not talking about the same scenario that happened last year with Ohio State.

We want all undefeated teams to lose. After that, we want all one-loss teams to lose again. Hell, we want any two-loss teams to drop a third game. Right down the line.

As the OP says, Alabama can't lose twice if it doesn't lose once. We're all assuming Michigan wins out. If that happens, we will be in it. You want Alabama out of the way? Root for it to lose.

Our biggest threats (again, assuming we win out) are Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and West Virginia. I don't see either of the Big XII teams passing us. And the committee putting ND at 4 and us at 5 makes me confident Notre Dame has zero room for error.

If we were in OSU's spot at 10, some of these arguments would have merit. But with a debut spot at 5, a game against a ranked PSU team this coming Saturday, and a road game against OSU still on the schedule the Saturday after Thanksgiving, we only need to worry about the outcomes of our games. 

SF Wolverine

November 1st, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^

Scenario is sound, but seems quite unlikely that 'Bama drops another.  In which case, LSU/Bama very likely to both make the CFP, and if Clemson and ND stay undefeated, a total screw job for UM not entirely out of question.

J.

November 1st, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

If your assumptions are correct, that Michigan is in regardless, then fine.

Your assumptions aren’t correct.

There are absolutely scenarios wherein Michigan wins out and gets left out.  The most likely involves Alabama losing to LSU in a close game on the road, and then both of those teams winning out.

Don’t overthink this.  Root against LSU.

reddogrjw

November 1st, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^

leaving out 2-loss conference champions is easy

very likely the Pac-12 ends up there and decent chance the Big 12 ends up there as well

 

the heirarchy

Undefeated P5 team

1-loss P5 team that is a conference champ

1-loss P5 team that is not a conference champ

2-loss P5 team that is a conference champ

2-loss P5 team that is not a conference champ / undefeated G5 team

The Baughz

November 1st, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^

Bama needs to win out plain and simple. LSU winning causes chaos, and said chaos might be bad for Michigan.

No way in hell does Bama lose 2 games. I’d rather Bama just win out and that’d ensure the SEC only getting 1 team in.

Michigan has to win out regardless; so if they take care of business Saturday then UM will be in the top 4 come 11/24. That’s all I care about right now.

The team we need to be rooting for this week is Northwestern. ND does not get in over a 1 loss UM team. 

Either way, it is nice for UM to be in the thick of the CFP discussion in November.

oh and fuck PSU.

DrMantisToboggan

November 1st, 2018 at 10:48 AM ^

I do think that Bama would not be in the top 4 if they lose to LSU, Michigan wins out, Clemson wins out, and you have two of: 12-1 Big 12 champ Oklahoma, 12-1 SEC Champ, or 12-0 ND. 

HOWEVER, LSU isn't good enough to make me trust that they wouldn't fuck up and lose to A&M at the end of the year, or God forbid, to Arkansas the week after Bama. Then, with 2 SEC losses, Bama is back in the SECCG with wins against Miss State and Auburn, both of whom they will clobber.

That scenario would put Bama back in the playoff, so back to where we started, but it would probably be the #3 team, and if both Clemson and us win out, we're probably the #2, with a first round date with Bama. I'd much, much, much rather face Clemson in a 2v3 than Bama, so I hope Bama stays #1.

DonAZ

November 1st, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^

Michigan wins out, Clemson wins out, and you have two of: 12-1 Big 12 champ Oklahoma, 12-1 SEC Champ, or 12-0 ND

I think in that scenario, the order of precedence would be:

  • Clemson is a guaranteed lock for the playoff.
  • Notre Dame at 12-0 would be a lock for the playoff.
  • Michigan at 12-1 > Oklahoma at 12-1
  • SEC champ at 12-1 > Michigan at 12-1
  • Michigan at 12-1 > SEC non-champ at 12-1

So, unless something weird happens, I see it: Alabama (SEC champ), Clemson (ACC champ), Notre Dame (undefeated, and because it's Notre Dame), and Michigan as Big Ten champ.

Maize4Life

November 1st, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^

Ill have to admit he does make a good point...and it also decreases the possibility of facing them in the Semis should we win out  (although I wont be a believer until we beat Ohio St because for 15yrs weve found every imaginable way to lose to them}

ijohnb

November 1st, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^

"If Michigan wins out, the will not be left out of the CFP, no matter what."

This statement is just patently untrue.  I think it is highly likely that if Michigan wins out, it will be in the Playoff.  85% chance.  But there are WAY too many variables to conclude that it is 100%.  And as a disclaimer, I am not "stressed" about it, "worried about" it, or "concerned about it."  I think Michigan going 12-1 and playing in the Rose Bowl would be awesome.  Obviously it wouldn't be a exciting as the Playoff, but it would be very satisfying.

There is so much that is going to happen between now and the end of the season that it is impossible to say who is going to be in.  There will be chaos, some of it will benefit us, some of it will hurt us.  What if Alabama beats LSU as expected, but then Oklahoma just starts completely obliterating opponents while we win less impressively.  What if the media gets ahold of the UCF narrative and starts chanting "Let Them Play" and the committee caves?  What if Bama wins out until the SEC title game and Georgia beats them 28-27 in a classic?

And there is a reason why the committee put LSU ahead of ND in the initial poll.  If LSU beats Bama in a close game and ND wins big, the Top 4 is going to remain the same with ND at 3 and Bama at 4.  And then what if the BIG title game is Michigan beating like a 5 loss NW team who has the tie breaker over Wisconsin?  That does nothing for our resume. 

Conversely, Clemson, ND, and LSU could all lose this weekend or next and we could be sitting at #2 in the poll and be a lock for a spot.  That could happen to.  It is a possibility, sure.

Long story short(ish), Michigan wins out and it is highly likely that they get in, but it is not a sure thing, and I really don't understand why people are saying it is.

ijohnb

November 1st, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^

I would love Michigan to be part of the CFP, but going 12-1, beating both of our primary rivals on the road and playing in the Rose Bowl would be a fantastic season.  It would feel like there was still something to be desired, but I would not lose a whole lot of sleep about that outcome.

ijohnb

November 1st, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^

It isn't though man.  I know you and I discussed this earlier on a different thread, it isn't a sure thing.  You can think that if you want, it doesn't matter one way or another to me what assumptions you proceed with.  But there are very feasible scenarios where it just isn't true.

Reggie Dunlop

November 1st, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^

I know. That's what the *wink* was meant to represent. Just a friendly hat tip to our previous convo. Here's my deal:

Back in September after week three, you could've whipped yourself into a frenzy. There were 19 undefeated Power 5 teams that would've kept a 1-loss Michigan out of the playoff. You didn't do it then because it was way too early and teams were definitely going to lose. There's no way you could prove that all of those teams would falter. And I could've said to you then, "But what if they ALL win out?!" Or just 4 of them go undefeated?!?!"  I would've technically been correct despite you knowing that it'll never happen in a million years because upsets happen and college football teams lose games.  

I'm still in that general frame of mind because there's way too much football left to start panicking about the possibility that nobody will ever lose. Is it possible? Yes. You are correct. It is possible, just like it was possible in Week 3. Will it happen? Nope. Because upsets happen and college football teams lose games.

With that said, I recognize that I'm my own worst enemy for clicking on this thread in the first place. So I will stop engaging you. I will be back in a month with a lighthearted "I told you so". 

Mr Miggle

November 1st, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^

I don't get why people think the committee moved LSU up to benefit Alabama. If they think Bama is so great, why do things under the assumption they will lose their next game?

They made a statement about an important way they look at strength of schedule, which is the number of wins LSU has against teams with winning records. They used it to justify putting LSU ahead of an undefeated team with a decent, but inferior schedule.

We will beat Bama on that metric. If we win out, we're a lock to have 6 of those wins vs P5 teams. Bama will have 5 at most if they lose to LSU. 

trueblueintexas

November 1st, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^

I understand what you are saying, but if the committee is doing their job, then Alabama would not be ranked #1 right now based on this year's schedule strength so far. ND is undefeated and has wins over Michigan (7-1) & Stanford (5-3). Alabama is undefeated and has wins over Texas A&M (5-3) and.....no other team with a winning record in conference!

S5R48S10

November 1st, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^

Alabama is Alabama.  

 

We may hate it, but Alabama's year-over-year dominance has earned them the benefit of the doubt with the Powers That Be.  Unless they lose twice, any discussion of who is the best in college football will, not unreasonably, include Alabama.  

ak47

November 1st, 2018 at 10:51 AM ^

People fretting about a 1 loss Bama getting in over a 1 loss conference champion are being panic monkeys. They could do it last year because OSU had 2 losses. 

What I don't understand is why everyone is so confident Michigan clearly gets in over a 1 loss Oklahoma. I don't really care about what happens with Bama, its Oklahoma I am rooting the most against to ensure a playoff berth.