Caris to remain in boot until May
I wouldn't think it would impact his decision either way. Both the NBA and CBB start around the same time.
The draft is June 25th. I would think he would have time to get in workouts for scouts if he decided to but if he's unable to participate in the workouts full speed that could hurt his draft stock.
Not only is the draft in June, but the deadline to declare is next week (April 26th). He would have to have a good idea of how healthy he will be in late May by next week, when he will still be in the walking boot.
Also, not to nitpick but if he were to declare and drop to a second round draft pick (which given the injury and potential lack of workouts is possible), he may have to actually make an NBA roster. NBA preseason starts about a month and a half before college BB season. Again, all of this would presumably factor into the decision.
Double post
is he in the trunk of a car in the first place?
Is there an NBA combine or anything? If not I doubt that impacts his decision very much. Still think he comes back anyways.
The NBA Draft Combine is typically in the middle of May (12th to 17th this year), so his ability to participate in that definitely affects his decision, I would think. I hope Caris stays personally - it would be nice to have him and that roster back with all the experience they've managed to get this past season.
he left. Not being able to perform at 100% at the combine or workout would greatly affect his draft status.
Knicks
Edit: or Suns maybe it is Lochdogg
I'm really not being a maize and blue homer here. To me, his game really needs another year. The same way GR3's game needed one more year. Burke, Hardaway, and Stauskas were all ready and probably couldn't have taken their game to another level.
Mitch (darn), Caris, and GR3 would've all benefited from one more season to really fine tune certain parts of their game:
Caris - being a shut down defender and being the guy
GR3 - needed to solidfy his shot, especially outside range
Mitch - Durability, experience, and his low post game needed some work.
So you clearly believe that college basketball is the minor leagues of the NBA then? I disagree. There's no way you can actually prove that another year in college will better prepare any player for the NBA.
The only way a third year helped Hardaway was that it gave him more exposure through the title game run. Did that third year help him solidify his shot? Because he's shooting 38% this season for the Knicks (that's from all over, not just 3, which is 33%).
Speaking of poor shooting percentages, Burke was ready to go, but he's already been supplanted in the Jazz's starting line up by a 19 year old who averages 5 points and 2.5 assists per game. (A 19 year old who didn't even go to college to learn anything about basketball and yet who NBA watchers think is going to be tons better than Burke. I disagree about that, but it doesn't matter in this context.) Would a third year have helped Burke's shot? He was clearly "the guy" his sophomore year, but has that translated into the pros?
So your evidence on GR3 being able to solidify his shot with another year is pretty dubious, as is another year so Caris can learn to "be the guy". You either are able to produce in the pros, or you're not.
Mitch was clearly ready for the NBA. He'll be solid once he improves his defense. But it doesn't matter if he improves it in college or the pros. In some ways, it's probably better he improves in the pros--he's never going to face NBA level big men in game situations in the B1G.
What ball skills can people improve on in college that they can't improve on in the pros?
after his sophomore year. He didn't go in the first round the next year because he got some exposure in the title run. He was already on the NBA's radar and moved up after the combine and workouts.
There's no reason why Caris can't carve out a similar path. But Crawford was likely not a one and done player though. The NCAA had something to do with him leaving so quickly.
Why do you say that? He probably wasn't going to win much in Ellerbe's program and was an NBA lottery pick. The suspension eliminated any possibility of a return but I doubt he'd have ever stayed.
Not sure what you're trying to say. Crawford was always recognized as a huge talent. He actually tried to go pro straight out of high school before changing his mind (which nearly made him ineligible for college basketball in the first place). In the half-season we had him, he was by far our best player.
totally different players, totally different paths
my diary here: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/first-round-why-it-matters
may have some value to this conversation.
I'm glad you brought your diary back into current conversation becuase I thought it was very interesting and had some statistical comments/consideration to offer.
I don't know what you have in terms of a data set but I think if you used a hierarchical regression model and regressed total NBA earnings on draft position and then draft age you could separate out the effects.
I would guess that draft position significantly predicts future total earnings and that draft age doesn't add to the predictor model, but I could be wrong.
Another interesting thing would be to add player position into the model. Which positions tend to be the most stable in terms of career or earnings? I would guess the 3 or the 4 (injury concerns for big men and high volume of players at shooting guard) but maybe there is no difference.
Just some thoughts.
I have started to do more work on the salary piece - and great spot - indeed I did include draft age as a part of my data set (though I haven't done anything with it just yet - and was really unsure whether it was relevant or not - tbh, my first instinct is that it may be, but I see your pov).
I thought my project might be relevant to this part of the convo (why Crawford =/= Caris (one of many reasons)) as it may or may not suggest player HS-CBB-NBA trajectories (or the top 30 guys may be just that good).
I really like the position idea and it's one of the things that caught my eye as I researched but hadn't yet coalesced into a fully formed thought. I mean, for one thing, if you're 7 feet and can walk without tripping, the stats say you're very very likely to be in the NBA for a while. I did see some 6'10, 6'11" guys that seemed to have some of that going on. Jeremy Tyler, for example, who wasn't in any sample because he went the international route before entering the draft. He's back in China, but I could see him returning and he made some headway in the league.
I'm a little burned out after gathering and combing through data for about three weeks, so I'm taking a few days away from it - however, if you wanted to look at my raw data and have at it, I'm more than happy to share the project.
April 14th, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^
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have you read my analysis linked above?
Because seeing how real the threat has become that he lands in the 2nd round, it leads me to a very different conclusion, I think.
I don't know what he's hearing - that's a crucial variable I just don't know - but the way his stock is heading (downward pressure is at least part in keeping with all these declarations) - I think he should stay.
As I point out in my study, the 2nd round is no place for an underclassmen to go if he hopes to work things out at the next level.
April 15th, 2015 at 10:14 PM ^
a little confused by that over here.