Can Michigan Hockey make the tournament with a split?

Submitted by MLAWyer on March 14th, 2010 at 10:17 PM

Obviously, the best case scenario is that Michigan wins both games next weekend and takes the CCHA auto-bid, but is it possible they sneak in with a split? The current pairwise has Michigan tied at 15. The top 14 will make the tournament if there are no upset tournament champs. Michigan is tied with UMD whose season is over. UNH is one spot ahead of Michigan,and their season was just ended by Vermont in overtime. Alaska is at 12, and their season is also over. A split would mean getting a win over #2 Miami, #8 Ferris, or #11 NMU. Would that be enough? We'll know more once the pairwise predictor comes online tonight/tomorrow morning. Just wanted to get people's impression.

Comments

JustGoBlue

March 14th, 2010 at 10:33 PM ^

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/what-does-it-take-um-make-ncaa-hockey-tourn…

The short answer is no.

We need 3 comparisons for the slightest of chances, because of Atlantic hockey's auto-bid and the CHA's auto-bid going to not-Bemidji and with a split the Joe, all our numbers stay the same. If we beat Northern/Ferris in the consolation, we can probably flip that comparison, but that's about it for what we're able to do. Then we need help. A lot of help.

lhglrkwg

March 14th, 2010 at 10:34 PM ^

did you take into account that UAH is already one of those upset tournament teams. that means that somehow the CHA is sending 2 teams: bemidji and UAH.

i'd imagine a split with a W over miami would get us close but i think the dominoes have to fall right for us to get in with a split

Alton

March 14th, 2010 at 10:39 PM ^

I have been running several scenarios, and the short answer is that I can't find any way to get us in without a sweep. The best ranking I can find for Michigan after a split is 16th in the pairwise, and nobody lower than 14th will be getting an at large bid.

Trebor

March 14th, 2010 at 10:59 PM ^

Minnesota Duluth won today, and is on to the play-in game at the WCHA Final Five. They sit tied with NMU at 11.

With all the games today finished, we sit at 16. I don't think there is a scenario where we move up to 14 unless we sweep the weekend.

A few other things (besides UAH winning the CHA auto-bid instead of Bemidji) are also working against us as we speak. Cornell is the only ECAC team left in their tournament who is top 14, with Union the next closest at 20. Vermont (sitting on the bubble at 14) and BC are left in HEA, with Maine and BU both tied at 17.

JustGoBlue

March 14th, 2010 at 11:11 PM ^

the PWR predictor, I can't find a way to get in without winning the CCHA. I tried a couple different scenarios and none of them work well, we don't even stay as high as we are, doing really anything but sweeping. I didn't try every possibly combination with every team, but I tried the ones where the teams above us lose most and the teams close behind us lose second most and those way above us or way behind winning most and us doing every combination of splitting possible, but it just doesn't work. Winning 2 puts us into at-large consideration, but at that point we get the auto-bid. So, well, yah, let's go guys, we need this!

EDIT: It's here if anyone wants to one-up me and prove me wrong, http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwp.php

redwings8831

March 14th, 2010 at 11:42 PM ^

Yeah. I feel like the committee would want to keep us in Fort Wayne for attendance issues, but that won't be possible if we're a 4, because Miami will be there and they can't have inter-conference matchups in the first round.

EDIT: We could be bumped up from a 3 if some other teams get their auto-bids through the tourney like us, but are still below us in the Pairwise (like an non-Cornell ECAC or teams in Hockey East)

redwings8831

March 15th, 2010 at 12:05 AM ^

CCHA:
Northern over Ferris
Michigan over Miami
--------------
Miami over Ferris (3rd place)
Michigan over Northern (championship)

ECAC:
St. Lawrence over Union
Brown over Cornell
--------------
Brown over St. Lawrence (championship)
Union over Cornell (3rd place)

Hockey East:
Boston University over Maine
Vermont over Boston College
--------------
Boston University over Vermont (championship)

WCHA:
Minnesota-Duluth over North Dakota (4/5 game)
--------------
St. Cloud State over Wisconsin
Denver over Minnesota-Duluth
--------------
Denver over St. Cloud State (championship)
Minnesota-Duluth over Wisconsin

Atlantic Hockey:
Air Force over Sacred Heart
Canisius over RIT
--------------
Air Force over Canisius (championship)

1. Denver (WCHA Champs - Auto Bid)
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4t. Boston College
4t. North Dakota
6. St. Cloud State
7. Bemidji State
8. Yale
9. Northern Michigan
10t. Minnesota-Duluth
10t. New Hampshire
CUT OFF LINE ---------------------- CUT OFF LINE
12. Vermont
13. Michigan (CCHA Champs - Auto Bid)
14t. Ferris State
14t. Alaska
16. Boston University (Hockey East Champs - Auto Bid)
17t. Michigan State
17t. Cornell
19t. Colorado College
19t. Union
19t. Maine
22t. Nebraska-Omaha
22t. Minnesota
24. Mass.-Lowell
25. Northeastern
— Air Force (Atlantic Hockey Champs - Auto Bid)
— Brown (ECAC Champs - Auto Bid)
— Alabama-Huntsville (CHA Champs - Auto Bid)

JustGoBlue

March 15th, 2010 at 12:28 AM ^

But you probably didn't have to predict the whole pairwise, simply the idea would have be enough :-p

But I'd almost rather play a #1 seed, keep the team ultra-focused on their next opponent, rather than maybe less focused because it's a more even match up.

We're almost certainly going to have to play a one seed sooner or later to win the big prize, so may as well take one out early, get some confidence and crush (or at least sneak by) everyone else on the way to #10!

Mi Sooner

March 14th, 2010 at 11:28 PM ^

if we DO win both games, we will eliminate someone else from the bubble that would normally get it. your analysis makes sense. we moved up from 25 to 16/17th; there is no way we can make another large leap in the PWR even with winning both games.

JustGoBlue

March 14th, 2010 at 11:32 PM ^

if we get a spot in the tournament that's one more spot that someone else can't have, but if we win both games we move into a point where we'd get an at large anyways (PWR rank better than 14th), if that's what you meant? I think whatever team we knock out WHEN we make the tournament will feel better about us making it above them rather than 12-17-3 UAH getting a spot above them.

MaizeyBlue

March 15th, 2010 at 12:32 AM ^

Okay, here is my question, a split looks like its impossible for us to get in especially having to be in the top 14 now, I haven't played around with it, but isn't the Pairwise just a tool, but there is added selection processes? Is it possible if we end up 15 and somehow some random team is 14 and they select us? I know we basically have to win both to get in, but just wondering if that scenario works???

I was also in Las Vegas this past weekend and the Harrah's casino's had odds on the tourney champion which was nice.(Pre-quarter Finals)

UofM 55:1
Ferris State 20:1
Northern Michigan 110:1
Sparty: 7:1 (oops)

I snatched up that Northern bet real fast.

Srock

March 15th, 2010 at 10:12 AM ^

Interesting work guys (on the predictor). I have played around with it as well, and it does seem we need 2 more wins to make it. I like the way we are playing right now, best hockey of the year at the right time. If UM wins the CCHA, we will have beaten two #1 seeds (Miami and Wiscy) so I can see us not getting either of them. But wouldn't it be ironic if we as a #4 seed could make it to the Frozen Four in at Ford Field? Do remember, the NCAA was banking on UM or MSU making it there for attendance, so I can see them with a slight help to us for the seeding...

Go Blue!