Bye week snowflakes

Submitted by TK on October 23rd, 2018 at 2:24 PM

Things on my mind that don’t all warrant new threads. Comment on some, comment on all, post pics of bunnies with pancakes on their heads, whatever. 

1. Look into your crystal ball, is Shea the qb next season or has he moved on to the NFL? I’m feeling 50-50 about it right now. 

2. Uche feels a lot like Winovich 2016 as Brian mentioned in the game recap. Can he be a good enough run defender that we plug him into Winovich’s spot next year as a full time starter, or will be still be a situational pass rusher. 

3. If we get past Penn St and Rutgers still looks..like Rutgers, do you consider giving McCaffrey the start? Conventional wisdom says no, you pull Shea when you have a comfortable lead, but there might be some benefit to extended action for McCaffrey/Milton. 

4. Who will have more success in the Big Ten: Scott Frost or PJ Fleck? Early returns not great on either but still very early for both. Personally I think Frost will figure it out and do fine there. Not sure if PJs boat rowing will find as much success in Minnesota. 

Comments

Night_King

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^

  1. I'd think he comes back. Not sure what his NFL stock is right now though. Unless he has a first rd grade, I probably won't change my mind.
  2. Situational but I'd argue he'll get more reps than he does now. Paye and Hutchinson will start IMO... Don't forget about Villain either.
  3. No, but I bet Dylan plays the whole 2nd half almost.
  4. Frost, not even close. 

jabberwock

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:33 PM ^

1.  I'd be fine if he was still here, but he won't be.  75+% he gone.

2.  He'll be plugged in whether he is "good enough" or not.  I don't think he'll ever be quite as good against the run as Chase (that no slight to Uche by the way) but he'll get better and he's too disruptive to leave off the field.

3.  No, must maintain some rhythm, etc.  I could see him leaving the game after 1st offensive series of the second half (which is a nice long time eating TD drive) however if he's been on target for the 1st half.

4.Frost.  Not necessarily because he's THAT much better than Fleck (I think he likely is better) but because of the strength of the programs.

CarrIsMyHomeboy

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:34 PM ^

1. I agree about it being 50/50ish. Were Shea to stay, he'd (likely) have a much bigger year in 2019.

2. Uche could be at the 2017-Winovich level by the end of the year. Whether he starts is a harder question, however, because he doesn't operate in a vacuum (/necessary-but-trite comment). Does Gary return? Can Vilain get healthy? Where do Hutch and Paye fit in? It could be wide open or crowded. But that dude is a dude.

3. No.

4. I think they'll both work out. Frost will work out fast - even next year, I see them competing in the West. With Minnesota, I think they can return to that Glen Mason level of achievement ... but only if they stop with these coaching turnovers. As for Fleck, I respect his teaching philosophy. And don't believe he was a nerfed hire. At worst, he's "meh - fine." And Minnesota is in no position to toss coaches like that away. Give him 6-10 years and he'll win 10 games at least once.

evenyoubrutus

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^

Can't help but think about Rudock after his 8th game and how he exploded in the stats. The bye week was a week earlier before we went to Minnesota and things were rough but that was when he really took off and locked in with Chesson. It feels like something similar could happen with Shea. We've seen flashes but he seems to miss open receivers on occasion. 

Ziff72

October 23rd, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^

I keep waiting for it.   Everyone forgets how brutal Rudock was.  There is no punt miracle if he plays a C game vs MSU.    He was excellent to end the season but it took a long time.  

Rewatching the games there are more plays to be made.  With the run game really turning the table to dominant this thing could break wide open.  

I would encourage everyone to watch the 1st drive vs MSU.  Every play of that drive could have broke huge.  Coaches must have been going nuts.   That was a beautifully scripted drive that turned to shit.

I've never been so excited for a bye week.   I expect Shea to come thru this at another level.

 

stephenrjking

October 23rd, 2018 at 8:59 PM ^

I completely agree. This feels a lot like the Rudock situation. Except that Rudock wasn’t nearly as good, particularly deep. He was putting up 50% type DSRs in UFR. Then, after the Minnesota game (where he was mediocre until he got hurt) he went to plaid until OSU. 

Shea is tentative but he throws well and the plays are there. If he can just hit those throws, this offense really becomes something special. 

FWIW I think he leaves regardless but I kind of expect a strong finish from him that will make a departure less of a question and more of a sure thing. However, if he were to come back, watch out. 

Moleskyn

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:35 PM ^

Great discussion questions. 

  1. I am leaning toward him coming back. I don't think he has put up gaudy enough stats to gain the recognition he needs. He has also looked hesitant and inaccurate at times.
  2. I'm too lazy to look this up myself, but I would be interested to see a size/measurables comparison of Uche to Winovich at the same age.
  3. Shea for the first half, DCaff for the second. Milton in the 4th if it's really out of hand.
  4. Fleck. Nebraska has tradition and expectations; the fanbase will get restless real quick with losing seasons.

How about a fifth question: of the draft eligible or draft likely players, who on Michigan's current roster gets picked first in the 2019 draft? I would say Bush.

yossarians tree

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:51 PM ^

I think Gary will go first. There is a much higher premium on guys who can rush the passer and Rashan is a physical freak that has NFL personnel people drooling. I think Bush will be a great pro but there are lots of linebackers.

I unselfishly really believe Patterson could use another year in college playing in a pro offense with an NFL QB and HC as his coach. However I think he is good enough to be drafted and one could easily argue that he is going to develop faster by making it his full-time job in an NFL building 24/7/365 (while getting a paycheck, btw). I think he makes the jump and that's okay because I like the depth we're developing at QB.

I am starting to wonder if Urban Meyer is even going to finish this season. He looked awful on the sidelines last week and it looks as if he's lost his grip on the program. I know it was just one game, but man Ohio State looked like it quit in that game. I think they've lost their identity and it just looks like kids are just cruising through for a few years until they can go to the NFL. They have a lot of great players but I just don't see that pride and grit you would see from a Chris Spielman-type OSU.

J.

October 23rd, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^

I don't expect Milton to play at Rutgers.  He has three more games to play this year whilst preserving a redshirt.  The fact that the coaches used one of the four against Wisconsin should tell you everything you need to know.  He's unlikely even to travel to Rutgers.  Peters is much more likely to get those Rutgers snaps.

I expect to see Milton in the OSU game, one postseason game, and the PSU game if it's close.  If they can hold him out of the PSU game, that gives him a chance to get into a potential Big Ten championship game.

Alumnus93

October 23rd, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^

I'll be surprised if Peters plays again for us. 

1. Shea is staying unless he wins national title.  

2. Uche is a star.  As is hutchinHut, the latter is gonna be All American. Bank on it.   Villian. weren't there whispers of transfer?

4..Fleck....  Fleck because he has had great success in the Midwest.... western mi was dominant   Frost was in Florida and had some great pickings of recruits.  Not sure he will have same success at Neb .

jmstranger

October 23rd, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^

To your point #4: I think Frost has a pretty long career at Nebraska if if he isn’t that successful. They are kind of in the same boat as us - if Harbaugh hadn’t worked out, there is no one to go to - when you have the alumnus coach who has been excellent every where and even he can’t turn your program around - where do you turn next?

ish

October 23rd, 2018 at 3:29 PM ^

aaron rogers put up Heisman level numbers, and came out early because he knew that his heisman level numbers would get him drafted early.  rogers finished in the top 10 of heisman voting.  patterson does not compare to aaron rogers.

ish

October 23rd, 2018 at 4:24 PM ^

it's not that Heisman voting makes a difference.  it's that the NFL doesn't look at 6'2" quarterbacks except for those that are doing something crazy.  doing something crazy gets you on the Heisman radar.  shea's been great for our team.  but "makes plays" guys are throwing for 300+ yards a game, and shea is usually under 200.

all i'm saying is that shea isn't a 1st rounder this year.

JPC

October 23rd, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^

6'2" is a pretty tall dude. Shea doesn't give off a tall vibe. I think his combine height would be more modest. 

I think it really depends on what Shea wants to do with his life. If he's looking to make some quick football cash and go do something else, he should definitely go. If he wants to be an elite QB prospect, he should probably come back. 

All that said, it definitely depends on the rest of the season. If he singlehandedly beats OSU while throwing dimes all game long, his stock could improve dramatically. 

DavidP814

October 23rd, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^

I think Shea comes back unless he A) goes on a tear the rest of the season, or B) Looks at the 2020 QB class and decides he's better off throwing against the 2019 guys.  Right now, though, I think he's a 3rd rounder at best.  6'2" is shorter than average for a QB, he's got a really accurate arm but not a cannon, and his decision-making is not great yet.  If his decision-making improves in Year 2 of a pro-style offense, then he might leap into the 1st round.

UgLi Eric

October 23rd, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^

Shea goes to the NFL. He will start trusting his blocks and receivers routes after the bye week, finally puts up lightsout passing numbers, rushes for ~70 yards per game, and leads us to the promised land. Like you said Crispy, NFL teams are just dying for a reason to draft a QB and Harbaugh is the QB whisper. 

Anything else and despite his hopes, he'd do better for himself by returning, so I'd assume he does in fact stay.

 

SkyBlue

October 23rd, 2018 at 4:15 PM ^

I think Shea’s gone regardless of the members he puts up.  He’s always had that one and done vibe. Anyway why would Shea stick around to throw the ball 20 times a game at UM when he can move on to the NFL and make millions?  

Shea will never put up big numbers in Harbaugh’s offense and the scouts already know Shea has NFL talent.  Move on and become a full time football player. 

JaseFace

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^

1. I think it depends how the season plays out. While he would benefit from coming back, I could see him riding the momentum of a B10 title or playoff experience to the draft. 

2. Uche seems like the perfect 3rd down pass rusher, I could see him starting if he really takes that next step into run D. Either way, it feels like he's earned his fair share of downs already, and he'll be in as much as the starters next year even if he isn't one.

3. Pulling Patterson for the whole game would foolish. It would risk throwing him off for the next games, and no game is guarantee. You can't have a mindset of taking any opponent for granted, even if it is Rutgers.

4. Frost by far. Fleck will probably be solid at Minnesota given enough time, but the resources Frost has at Nebraska as well as being a flat out better coach IMO will get them as contenders in the West sooner rather than later.

cstrable

October 23rd, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^

1. I think he's gone. He'll be talked about just enough by scouts that he'll probably go in the 2nd/3rd round. That will be enough to tempt him.

2. I think he'll be a full time starter.

3. Don't start him. He'll get plenty of time.

4. Frost.