BTT Seedings Drinking Thread

Submitted by joeyb on March 9th, 2013 at 5:42 PM

I wanted to give a quick update to my post from yesterday as the Iowa/Nebraska and Purdue/Minnesota games are over and things are much clearer.

With Iowa's win, they have locked up the #6 seed. With Minnesota's loss, they have locked up the #9 seed (That's pretty bad for a team that was once ranked in the top 10). If Illinois beats OSU tomorrow, they will be the #7 seed with Purdue the #8 seed. If OSU beats Illinois, you can swap those two teams because Purdue will have the tiebreaker over both Illinois and Minnesota.

Assuming Michigan wins tomorrow...

If OSU beats Illinois, #3 Michigan will play the winner of #6 Iowa vs. #11 NW

If Illinois beats OSU, #2 Michigan will play the winner of #7 Illinois vs. #10 Nebraska

 

Here's a look at the remaining possibilities for tournament seeding:

(Click to englarge)

 

 

 

Now that that's out of the way, what are you drinking? Hey, did you guys know that Stauskas isn't just a shooter? DRINK.

Comments

LSAClassOf2000

March 9th, 2013 at 6:39 PM ^

To review, here are the relative probabilities after the results of today's conference games:

GAME (USING MASSEY ESTIMATE)
MICH / IND ILL / OHIO MSU / NW WISC / PSU LIKELIHOOD MICHIGAN SEED
0.45 0.17 0.96 0.2 1.469% 4
0.45 0.17 0.96 0.8 5.875% 5
0.45 0.17 0.04 0.2 0.061% 4
0.45 0.17 0.04 0.8 0.245% 5
0.45 0.83 0.96 0.2 7.171% 4
0.45 0.83 0.96 0.8 28.685% 5
0.45 0.83 0.04 0.2 0.299% 4
0.45 0.83 0.04 0.8 1.195% 5
0.55 0.17 0.96 0.2 1.795% 2
0.55 0.17 0.96 0.8 7.181% 2
0.55 0.17 0.04 0.2 0.075% 2
0.55 0.17 0.04 0.8 0.299% 2
0.55 0.83 0.96 0.2 8.765% 3
0.55 0.83 0.96 0.8 35.059% 3
0.55 0.83 0.04 0.2 0.365% 3
0.55 0.83 0.04 0.8 1.461% 3

The current most likely scenario would be the third from the bottom in joeyb's table, based on Massey's numbers, which would place the teams in the following order - Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern and Penn State. The second most likely scenario - which is what would occur with an Indiana win (again, per Massey's algorithm) is almost the same, except now 3 through 5 would be, in order, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan. 

I was actually about to sticky this to make it the thread of record for seeding updates, but as it is now the drinking thread in part and we will essentially know the answer by tomorrow evening, this can stand as-is. To that end, I am enjoying some Weihenstephaner this evening. 

Kennyvr1

March 9th, 2013 at 6:56 PM ^

Inside because of this "storm" in the greater Denver area. These people have never heard of salt and snow plows, all that to say I'm drinking Root Beer. A&W.

h625

March 9th, 2013 at 7:07 PM ^

Ohio will most likely take down Illinois tomorrow considering they're at home and still have something to play for, even though the Illini are always a wildcard.

That said, if Ohio does take down Illinois, the 8/9 game will be Illinois vs Minnesota. That'll quite the battle with both teams fighting for tourney seeding. Indiana will take on the winner and both have already defeated the Hoosiers this year.

rob f

March 9th, 2013 at 7:17 PM ^

poured down a few ales, and got my growler refilled with McGilligan's IPA.

I was planning to save that IPA until tuning to the IU game tomorow afternoon.  After looking at the charts above, I might have to break the seal on that growler before trying to interpret all the possibilities. 

buddhafrog

March 9th, 2013 at 9:05 PM ^

IF we win, then the only thing you should care about is OSU and MSU loosing so that they can't share our Big Ten Title!!!

#2/3 seeds are essentially the same - difference is if we would play MSU or OSU (I'd rather play OSU).  However, I'd rather even more to not have them share our title.