BTT: Predictions

Submitted by TruBluMich on March 9th, 2014 at 10:25 PM



Game #1:  #8 Indiana vs #9 Illinois
Game #2:  #5 Ohio State vs #12 Purdue
Game #3:  #7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State
Game #4:  #6 Iowa vs #11 Northwestern

Game #5:  #1 Michigan vs Indiana/Illinois
Game #6:  #4 Nebraska vs Ohio State/Purdue
Game #7:  #2 Wisconsin vs Minnesota/Penn State
Game #8:  #3 Michigan State vs Iowa/Northwestern

Game #9:  Michigan/Indiana/Illinois vs Nebraska/Ohio State/Purdue
Game #10: Wisconsin/Minnesota/Penn State vs Michigan State/Iowa/Northwestern

Championship:
Michigan/Indiana/Illinois/Nebraska/Ohio State/Purdue
- vs -
Wisconsin/Minnesota/Penn State/Michigan State/Iowa/Northwestern


My Picks
Game #1:  #8 Indiana vs #9 Illinois
Game #2:  #5 Ohio State vs #12 Purdue
Game #3:  #7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State
Game #4:  #6 Iowa vs #11 Northwestern

Game #5 = #1 Michigan vs #9 Illinois
Game #6 = #4 Nebraska vs #5 Ohio State
Game #7 = #2 Wisconsin vs #7 Minnesota
Game #8 = #3 Michigan State vs #6 Iowa

Game #9 = #1 Michigan vs #5 Ohio State
Game #10 = #7 Minnesota vs #6 Iowa

Championship = #1 Michigan vs #7 Minnesota

Why I picked what I did.  Michigan is the best team in the league and with a chance at a high #2 seed or a #1 seed they still have someething to play for (I'm also a little biased).  Minnesota, they have the most of anybody in the BTT to play for.  They are not a bad team and I just have a strange feeling they find a way to pull it off, this seasons been crazy so why not in the BTT.  MSU is a complete mess right now and I don't think a couple of days is going to straighten that ship enough to beat Iowa.   Iowa can, and has showed, they can beat anyone in the Big Ten.

Most importantly I hope everybody for Michigan stays healthy, that is by far the most important outcome for the BTT.  Everything else is just a B1G bonus.

Whats your predictions?

Comments

robbyt003

March 9th, 2014 at 10:31 PM ^

The Results

Game #1:  #8 Indiana vs #9 Illinois
Game #2:  #5 Ohio State vs #12 Purdue
Game #3:  #7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State
Game #4:  #6 Iowa vs #11 Northwestern

Game #5 = #1 Michigan vs #8 Indiana
Game #6 = #4 Nebraska vs #5 Ohio State
Game #7 = #2 Wisconsin vs #7 Minnesota
Game #8 = #3 Michigan State vs #6 Iowa

Game #9 = #1 Michigan vs #4 Nebraska
Game #10 = #2 Wisconsin vs #3 Michigan State

Championship = #1 Michigan vs #3 Michigan State (How awesome is this going to be?)

End Thread.  

B-Nut-GoBlue

March 9th, 2014 at 10:35 PM ^

Wisconsin VS Ohio in the BTT Championship.  You can see how I'd have that play out for the most part, I have us losing to Indiana again in the opener.  I mean, it's in Indianapolis.  Oh well.  The real business lies within the following weekend and this Tournament only helps us with seeding between a 2 or 3.

 

NOLA Wolverine

March 9th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^

Michigan State and Wisconsin both get bounced in their first games? That doesn't sound likely. Michigan State just bombed Iowa two games ago. 

If Michigan's going to keep playing basketball games here, it might as well end with a match up with Wisconsin. 

SF Wolverine

March 9th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^

but hard to get wound up about B10 tourney.   Won the conference outright, and running away, and I think this team could do some damage in the Dance.  Love to see them healthy and playing well going in.  If winning the B10 tourney is consistent with that, have at it!

B-Nut-GoBlue

March 9th, 2014 at 10:42 PM ^

I mean, it's on record (don't call me on it, I've no idea where to find it) that Beilein doesn't place a lot of emphasis on this tournament.  This team and "organization" is such a cohesive unit, the players feed off everything Beilein and coaches throw at them and probably know this philosophy, at least subconsiously.  If the coaches are concerned about fixing and working on things, playing sound basketball, and playing safe/healthy games and NOT concerned about winning a somewhat meaningless game, the players know this and I can easily see us getting bounced by a team playing like hyenas and struggling to survive. 

TruBluMich

March 9th, 2014 at 10:49 PM ^

On preparing for the NCAA tournament:

It depends on what you did in your (conference) tournament. Sometimes, if you’re not going to win your tournament, it’s best to lose on a Friday or Saturday. Everybody’s trying to win it, make no mistake about that.

http://www.umhoops.com/2014/03/03/notes-quotes-john-beilein-big-ten-teleconference-8/

Rather be on BA

March 9th, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^

Game #1:  #8 Indiana vs #9 Illinois
Game #2:  #5 Ohio State vs #12 Purdue
Game #3:  #7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State
Game #4:  #6 Iowa vs #11 Northwestern

Game #5:  #1 Michigan vs Indiana
Game #6:  #4 Nebraska vs Ohio State
Game #7:  #2 Wisconsin vs Minnesota
Game #8:  #3 Michigan State vs Iowa


Game #9:  Michigan vs Ohio State
Game #10: Wisconsin vs Michigan State

Championship:
Michigan
- vs -
Michigan State

 

How beautiful would that be?

bronxblue

March 9th, 2014 at 10:47 PM ^

I want nothing to do with Indiana in the second round.

Honestly, I figure they'll stumble at some point, but they should at least make the semi-finals.

michiganman01

March 9th, 2014 at 10:50 PM ^

they piss me off. It seems as if Ferrel turns into Burke when they play us. I know Ferrel is a good player (best PG in the league) but he always plays better against us. Illinois on the other hand seems easy. I'm not expecting a 30 point win again but should be an easy 15.

Steves_Wolverines

March 9th, 2014 at 10:53 PM ^

Michigan beats Illinois

Nebraska beats Ohio State

Wisconsin beats Minnesota

Michigan State beats Iowa

 

Nebraska beats Michigan

Wisconsin beats Michigan State

 

Wisconsin beats Nebraska

michiganman01

March 9th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^

Since 2000, 10 out of the 13 National Champs have won their conference tournament. The 3 that didnt are Maryland (2002), Syracuse (2003), and Kentucky (2012). So while I thought it doesnt really matter if you win the conference tourney, I guess they are a good indicator.

Perkis-Size Me

March 9th, 2014 at 11:02 PM ^

We're not snatching a 1 seed with 7 losses, although a 2 seed is a possibility if we win the BTT.

Nebraska is a dangerous team right now and as much as I hope they make the Big Dance (which I think they will), I do not want to have to play them again.

LSAClassOf2000

March 9th, 2014 at 11:03 PM ^

Without projecting out too far in the portion of the bracket in which we will find ourselves, our chances are pretty good to mee the winner of either Nebraska / OSU or Nebraska / Purdue actually. Indeed, right now, if you combine the odds of beating either Indiana or Illinois (whoever should win that game), the projected odds to survive at least that far would be 74.49%. I will take this. 

steve sharik

March 9th, 2014 at 11:05 PM ^

Final score of Ohio-Purdue will be the same as the seed numbers.  Boiler up (by 7)!

Srsly, Purdue might get Ohio, Iowa is in total free-fall, and despite today, Penn St. might get Minny on a neutral floor.  There will be at least one upset and a 10-, 11-, and/or 12-seed will make it to Friday.

Please take this with the same grain of salt you did with my prediction that we would blow IU out yesterday.

Muttley

March 9th, 2014 at 11:26 PM ^

Game #1:  #8 Indiana vs #9 Illinois
Game #2:  #5 Ohio State vs #12 Purdue
Game #3:  #7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State
Game #4:  #6 Iowa vs #11 Northwestern

Game #5 = #1 Michigan vs #9 Illinois
Game #6 = #4 Nebraska vs #5 Ohio State
Game #7 = #2 Wisconsin vs #7 Minnesota
Game #8 = #3 Michigan State vs #6 Iowa

Game #9 = #1 Michigan vs #4 Nebraska
Game #10 = #2 Wisconsin vs #3 Michigan State

Championship = #1 Michigan vs #2 Wisconsin

All but one chalk.  Call me Mr. Vegas.

If you asked me for a second lower seed winner, I'd say
Iowa over MSU in the battle of the sinking ships.

WinThyGame

March 9th, 2014 at 11:30 PM ^

Michigan over Indiana

Ohio over Nebraska 

Wisconsin over Minny

MSU over Iowa

 

Michigan over Ohio

Wisconsin over MSU

 

Michigan over Wisconsin

 

 

 

ldoublee

March 9th, 2014 at 11:32 PM ^

We beat Tom Crean, the the Buckeyes for the 2nd time, and then we drive Izzo to the brink of a meltdown by beating State for the 3rd time.

Jobu

March 9th, 2014 at 11:58 PM ^

Amazing how cocky Nebraska fans are after one relevant season in 50 years. Looking forward to another 40 point beat down of them hopefully Saturday

Magnum P.I.

March 10th, 2014 at 1:19 AM ^

I'm not afraid of Indiana. We're much, much better than them, and they've had some flukey shit go their way to get the results they have against us. As long as Yogi Ferrell doesn't play like Oscar Robertson again, they don't have enough weapons to hurt us. That Sanford guy was just running at the basket like Rodney Stuckey on coke, no chance of actually scoring the ball, and getting ridiculous foul calls.

We should beat them by ten, at least, all things being equal. 

umbig11

March 10th, 2014 at 8:06 AM ^

Glass half full going into the BTT. I am taking Michigan over Wisconsin in the final. MSU will not get by Iowa and Wisconsin. OSU will be too tired to beat us if they win Thurs and then Friday against a stout Nebraska team. I like our chances!

MGoLogan

March 10th, 2014 at 8:36 AM ^

Game #1:  #8 Indiana over #9 Illinois
Game #2:  #5 Ohio State over #12 Purdue
Game #3:  #7 Minnesota over #10 Penn State
Game #4:  #6 Iowa over #11 Northwestern

Game #5 = #1 Michigan over #8 Indiana
Game #6 = #4 Nebraska over #5 Ohio State
Game #7 = #2 Wisconsin over #7 Minnesota
Game #8 = #3 Michigan State over #6 Iowa

Game #9 = #1 Michigan over #4 Nebraska
Game #10 = #2 Wisconsin over #3 Michigan State

Championship = #1 Michigan over #2 Wisconsin

 

I think IU beats Illinois handily then UM beats IU by 10+.  IU played one of their best games of the entire season on Saturday while Michigan had somewhat of an off shooting night and still controlled the entire second half.  I think at this point Michigan and Wisconsin are pretty clearly the two best teams in the conference and as long as both teams play close to their potential, that should be your championship game matchup.

BlueCube

March 10th, 2014 at 8:55 AM ^

more so I see us at least making the championship game and probably winning it. I'd love to have Mitch for one more big body but I know it's unlikely and the other players have done it all year. The game that worries me the most may be Indiana because the game is in Indianapolis. At the sae time I can see Indiana's fan interest being down due to the year they had. That's my hope anyway.

This team has stepped up for big games for the last two years and I have no reason to doubt they will do it again.

Hemlock Philosopher

March 10th, 2014 at 12:02 PM ^

Ill over IU

Ohio over Purdue

Minny over Penn St

Iowa over NW

Mich over Ill

Nebraska over Ohio

Wiscy over Minny

MSU over Iowa (bad draw for Iowa)*

Mich over Nebraska

Wiscy over MSU

Mich over Wiscy

*for some reason, the Hawkeyes have trouble with State. Kinda like us vs. Indiana.

Snow Sucks

March 10th, 2014 at 12:14 PM ^

Indiana beats Illinois

Ohio beats Purdue

Minnesota beats PSU

Iowa beats Northwestern

____________________

Michigan beats Indiana

Ohio beats Nebraska

Wisconsin beats Minnesota

Iowa beats Michigan State

_____________________

Michigan beats Ohio

Wisconsin beats Michigan State

______________________

Wisconsin beats Michigan

Yeoman

March 10th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^

Massey's posted probabilities for the tournament here:

http://masseyratings.com/tourn.php?t=597

As always, the odds are way too long at the long end because he's assuming independent probabilities for each game, ignoring possible correlations caused by injuries and the like. It also tacitly assumes that teams will perform like they did in the regular season, ignoring the differences in motivation and possibly coaching approach between teams that are already in the NCAA and teams that aren't.

Anyway, the odds:

  • Wisconsin 3:1
  • Michigan 3:1
  • Michigan State 4.5:1
  • Ohio State 6.5:1
  • Iowa 10:1
  • Nebraska 20:1
  • Minnesota 50:1
  • Illinois 75:1
  • Indiana 75:1
  • Penn State 250:1
  • Purdue 600:1
  • Northwestern 1500:1

Like I said, the method jumps the shark at the long end. To give Masey credit he doesn't pretend otherwise.

jmblue

March 10th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

I think we beat Illinois and Nebraska but lose to Wisconsin in the final.  The third game in three days will be tough from a physical standpoint.  The Charlotte game this year was also the third in three days, and we didn't have our legs under us.  UW has more of an inside game with Kaminsky, which will be the difference on that third game.  But reaching the final should be enough to secure a #2 seed in the NCAAs.