Bruce Feldman: Michigan 22:1 Odds to Win BCS Championship

Submitted by Buzz Your Girlfriend on March 20th, 2012 at 2:28 PM…

Bruce Feldman has Michigan at 22:1 to win it all.


"2-Michigan, 22-1: The Wolverines had a great first season under Brady Hoke, capping it off by finally beating Ohio State and winning a BCS bowl. This team still is explosive with Denard Robinson back. Word is, Shoelace has shown "marked improvement" according to OC Al Borges in terms of the dual-threat guy's understanding of the offense and improved footwork. RB Fitz Toussaint really emerged last year to take some pressure of Robinson and the physical runner is back. Michigan does have to replace the anchor of the O-line in center David Molk, but converted LG Ricky Barnum has ability. Defensively, DC Greg Mattison worked wonders last year. Now, he has to replace his best D-lineman, Mike Martin and continue to bolster a young D. We'll see if Craig Roh and Jibreel Black can take a big step forward. We'll find out how tough this defense is right away when they face the defending BCS champs Alabama who return the nucleus of its O-line and prides itself on out-muscling opponents. Pull the upset in Week 1 and Michigan is officially all the way back and a national title contender. They also have three other challenging games away from the Big House: at ND, at Nebraska and at Ohio State."


OSU spotted at ∞:1



March 20th, 2012 at 2:49 PM ^

and I think we have a 50-50 shot in the Bama game. The Bama game is in the best possible position for us. If we lose it, it's only the first game of the season and we have all season to come back and make up that loss. We should be a top ten team to start and if we lose a close game in that one, we likely won't drop very far. 


March 20th, 2012 at 3:01 PM ^

I like our chances a lot more after hearing for Gorgeous that Denard is so improved already with 6 months left to go, and with my confidence in Mattison as high as ever, but I'd say 50-50 is a little optimistic.  I probably would have only given a 49% chance to LSU in that national championship game last year because their defense was so good despite their awful offense, and we are not as good as LSU...  We can win.  But it's not 50-50.


March 20th, 2012 at 3:47 PM ^

Will we be playing as well on D as we did in January?  We also have not played a game in 8 months and will be looking to replace key peices on D.

Like everybody else on here (except for that RollTide guy) I hope we win and feel that we definitely have a shot.  I just do not understand the concept of "we have a better shot because its the first game."  It's the first game for us too!  Neither team will be in mid-season form.


March 20th, 2012 at 4:54 PM ^

I'm saying that under the assumption that Alabama has a higher ceiling than us next year. If they play up to their full potential, and where they have gotten at the end of two of three last seasons, I don't think we stand a chance. Like, at all. OTOH, if neither team has a great game, it will equalize some of the issues we'll have and we could be in it at the end and have a chance to upset them.

If we had equal talent, then I would agree with your assessment.


March 20th, 2012 at 8:54 PM ^

I can agree with that.  It will be very interesting to see how each coach gets their team ready to play.  Saban of course is a known coaching commodity, Coach Hoke, of course less so (I of course love our coach, but in terms of career accomplishment he is not Nick Saban [which is kind of a good thing! {TRIPLE PARANTHESIS}]). 

Player development will be huge in this game.  Can Black and Roh adapt to new positions on the D-line quick enough to get pressure on the QB and help stop the run?  I hate off seasons. :(


March 20th, 2012 at 3:18 PM ^

Looking through the hell does Notre Dame have better odds than us to win it all? They have 4 CB's on their depth chart, still haven't resolved the QB situation, just lost their best offensive player.

Either a lot of people are betting on them, or our schedule has scared some people off. But even then, ND has a pretty tough schedule to navigate. In Ireland for a game against Navy, at MSU, Miami (ytm), Stanford, at Oklahoma, and at USC.


March 20th, 2012 at 2:58 PM ^

It never gets old seeing all this talk about Bowls and seeing TSIO left out...

Also, Georgia may have an easy path to the SEC Title game, but once there they're going to have to go against LSU/Bama. Also, I think WVU has an easier shot than 30-1, the Big 12 isn't a Defensive conference, and I don't see many teams that can beat WVU's offense


March 20th, 2012 at 4:18 PM ^

But with our loses on the d line and no real receiving threat I feel we are in line for a 9-3 season. I wouldn't even consider that disappointing. Look we gotta be realistic here. Our roster is still incredibly young and we have walk on starters. Nobody on here is taking that into account.

I would love a magical run a la Auburn 2010, but I just can't see it happening. Unless Denard steps in and just dominate from the start and is unstoppable. I just wanna shut sparty up, go 2 in a row vs Ohio and play in Indy for a Big Ten title.

Mr Miggle

March 20th, 2012 at 5:59 PM ^

Way premature for that statement. Roundtree was a pretty big threat in 2010. Gallon looked good last season, and there are no shortage of candidates who could surprise. We have no sure-fire stars, much like where we were at RB going into last season.


March 20th, 2012 at 4:16 PM ^

If Bama beats us and both teams go undefeated afterwards, who wants to bet we get left out of the title game? Not saying it's at all likely that that happens, just an interesting scenario.


March 20th, 2012 at 5:52 PM ^

Michigan is atleast in the conversation for bcs title game and ranked in the top 5. That would mean better than 2 to 1 td/int ratio and over 1000 yds rushing. If he managed that the Heisman is his. What would help that case is a huge game vs bama win or lose.

Perkis-Size Me

March 20th, 2012 at 8:09 PM ^

Unless we beat Alabama, or play them down to the wire, we will come nowhere close to the national championship conversation next year. That is the one game on our schedule that if we win, no college football fan anywhere across the country could look at and say "well, its still a big ten team." Not that the other games won't be tough or important, but that game will be the benchmark for our success next year.

Road to the national championship is through the SEC these days......


March 20th, 2012 at 11:28 PM ^

I've created a site/blog called It contains drive-based statistics for all 120 teams in the FBS, and it also has conference drive stats for each conference. Definitions for all stats are located on the bottom of the page.

I figured this would be a good place to start because I have seen this topic brought up on multiple occassions when browsing this site. Feel free to check it out. 

While I'm not a Michigan fan, I can certainly understand the optimism about next season. In conference games, Michigan was second in points per drive on offense and third in points per drive on defense. No other team in the Big Ten was in the top three for points per drive on offense and defense. (Link)

Good luck this fall.

- Justin at